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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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New Mexico played last week, and it's well-documented that teams playing in Week 0 don't have an advantage.
What happens when a team has to play in Week 0 and the other team doesn't?
New Mexico had to prepare for another opponent. Arizona didn't.
The Lobos had to put some things on tape. Now, the Wildcats can adjust their game plan as needed.
FBS teams playing their season opener against an opponent that has already played have covered at a 60-34 ATS (63.8%) clip since 2005, including 4-1 against the closing number last season.
On paper, you might say UNM's 35-31 loss to Montana State was a valiant effort. But remember, the market kept betting against the Lobos against an FCS team that had pieces to replace for a reason.
New Mexico got dominated statistically. It gave up 567 yards and benefited from two scoop-and-scores, pointing to some turnover luck.
Bronco Mendenhall will probably get it turned around at some point, but it's going to take some time.
This New Mexico defense doesn't look like it's going to put up much resistance, so Arizona should score at will here.
There are questions on this Arizona roster, including depth on the defensive line and wide receiver outside of Tetairoa McMillan. Plus, the Wildcats have to replace a pro at left tackle.
However, I don't think New Mexico can exploit any of those issues.
The Wildcats also return quarterback Noah Fifita, who was great to bettors a season ago. The Fifita-McMillan connection should prove to be dominant against a porous Lobos defense.
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08-30-24 10:02 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Clemson vs Georgia (-13.5) (@ Atlanta)
Clemson was 9-4 LY, their worst season since going 6-7 in 2010.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 106 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Klubnik has 14 career starts.
Last ten years, Clemson is 3-3 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2018, Tigers are 11-18 ATS outside the ACC.
Since 2019, Tigers are 3-2 ATS in their season opener.
Last ten years, Clemson is 16-7 ATS on neutral fields.
Last seven years, Georgia is 86-11 SU, 54-42-1 ATS.
Dawgs have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Georgia has 87 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Beck started 14 games LY.
Last two years, Georgia is 3-7-1 ATS in non-league games.
Last two years, Dawgs are 8-12-2 ATS as a favorite.
Last ten years, Georgia is 21-11 ATS on neutral fields.
Georgia is 5-5 SU/ATS in last 10 games on this field.
Georgia won four of last five meetings.
Dawgs (+3) won last meeting 10-3 on a neutral field in 2021.
Last year, ACC teams were 7-3 ATS against SEC opponents.
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08-31-24 01:28 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Penn State (-8.5) @ West Virginia
Last two years, Penn State was 11-2/10-3 SU, 18-7-1 ATS.
Nittany Lions have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Penn State has 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Allar started 13 games last year.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 51-34-3 ATS as a favorite.
Under Franklin, Penn State is 19-12 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, Nittany Lions are +27 in turnovers in 26 games.
Before LY, last series game was in 1992; this used to be huge rivalry.
WVU was 9-4 last year, their best season since 2016.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.
Since 2016, WVU is 6-9-1 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Brown is 25-22 ATS as an underdog.
Last two years, WVU was 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Last 3 years, Mountaineers are 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in season openers.
Penn State (-20) beat West Virginia 38-15 LY, throwing for 332 yards.
Last three years, Big X teams were 7-4 ATS vs Big 18 opponents.
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08-31-24 01:28 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Miami (-2.5) @ Florida
Last two years, Miami was 5-7/7-6 SU, a combined 8-17 ATS
Miami has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Hurricanes have 121 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Ward has 25 career starts; he bolted from Washington State.
Since 2019, Hurricanes are 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cristobal is 15-11-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2015, Miami 10-18 ATS in non-league games.
This is Miami’s first visit to the Swamp since 2008.
Last three years, Gators were 6-7/6-7/5-7.
Six years before that, Gators were 52-24; the natives are restless.
Florida has 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Gators have 80 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Mertz has 43 career starts, 32 at Wisconsin.
Last three years, Florida is 14-23-1 ATS.
In his career, Napier is 18-7-1 ATS as an underdog, 5-2 at home.
Since 2018, Gators are 5-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Florida is 5-14-1 ATS in its last 20 non-conference games.
Miami won five of last seven series games.
Underdogs are 4-1 ATS in last five series games.
Last meeting was in 2019.
Last four series games stayed under the total.
Last year, ACC teams were 7-3 ATS against SEC opponents.
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08-31-24 01:30 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Boise State (-13) @ Georgia Southern
Broncos fired their coach LY after a 5-5 start, won 4 of last 5 games.
Boise has 6 starters back on offense, all 11 on defense.
Broncos have 66 starts returning on the offensive line.
Soph QB Madsen (132 pass attempts LY) will start at QB
Last four years, Broncos are 6-6-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Boise is 2-7-1 ATS in last eight non-conference games.
Broncos are 8-2 ATS in last ten road openers.
Last three years, Boise is 0-3 SU/1-2 ATS in season openers.
Georgia Southern was 6-7/6-7 in Helton’s first two years as HC.
GSU has 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Eagles have 50 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB/new starter French threw only 16 passes LY.
Under Helton, GSU is 6-4 ATS in non-league games.
Since 2018, Eagles are 8-6 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Helton is 4-3 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Helton is 25-20 ATS in home games.
These teams have never met.
Since 2016, Mountain West teams are 14-7-2 ATS vs Sun Belt opponents.
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08-31-24 01:30 PM |
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