Phillies First Inning ML +195 (Play to +180)

Starting Pitchers: Patrick Corbin vs. Aaron Nola

We're going right back to the well with this one, which we cashed yesterday with similar reasoning.

I mentioned then that the Phillies were tied for the best wRC+ in baseball against left-handed pitching — their shellacking of Mitchell Parker yesterday moved them into first by themselves.

Now they have an even better matchup against Patrick Corbin, who's first-time-through-the-order ERA is 1.5 runs higher than Parker's.

I'm a bit more concerned about the Nationals scoring today. Aaron Nola is no Zack Wheeler, but he's a solid enough starter that the bet is still worth taking.

The traditional YRFI and Phillies team-specific YRFI are also reasonable angles here, but they're priced at a point that makes them less appealing, hence the ML play.

NRFI -160 (Play to -170)

Starting Pitchers: Logan Gilbert vs. Paul Skenes

This might be the biggest odds I've ever bet on a NRFI, but this game justifies it.

That's mainly thanks to the starting pitchers, both of whom have first-time-through-the-order ERAs under 2.00. They're both top tier overall pitchers and notably fast starters.

We also don't have too much concern with either offense, particularly the Pirates, who rank 29th in wRC+ against righties.

Seattle is closer to league average, but it has the tougher matchup against Paul Skenes.

If you're uncomfortable paying the heavy juice, this is also a solid parlay piece that could be paired with other bets (including the WSH/PHI regular YRFI) to make the price a bit more palatable.