Jiri Lehecka vs. Frances Tiafoe

Lehecka is coming off a big win over Daniil Medvedev. However, that was a match in which the Russian really beat himself. Medvedev has not been playing well lately, and Lehecka was able to take advantage. But Lehecka has only played two matches in the last three months, as he just returned from a long injury layoff. The Czech also happened to play a pretty sloppy match against Nuno Borges in the opening round of this tournament. With that in mind, I like Tiafoe to stay hot and pick up another victory here.

Tiafoe has quietly turned around his 2024 season, as he has won eight of his last 12 matches. He’s also coming off an impressive straight-set beatdown of Lorenzo Musetti, who has been as good as anybody outside of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic this year. Tiafoe’s big serve, ability to come to the net and overall variety from the baseline make him a tough player to beat on fast hard courts. Tiafoe also feeds off the crowd in a big way during the American portion of the hard-court season.

I just don’t think Lehecka is going to be able to return Tiafoe’s serve here, and I think the American will have a pretty sizable advantage from the baseline. I would definitely feel differently if Lehecka was a little further removed from his injury, but Tiafoe should be able to beat him.

Bet: Tiafoe ML (-125 – 2 units)

Marta Kostyuk vs. Iga Swiatek

Swiatek was able to escape with a win in her match against Varvara Gracheva on Wednesday, but she didn’t look all that great. After winning the first set 6-0, Swiatek blew a 5-2 lead in the second and Gracheva ended up taking it in a tiebreaker. Swiatek rebounded by winning the third set 6-2, but that was also a weak opponent. Swiatek will now be taking on Kostyuk, who is 29-15 in 2024 and has won nine of her last 12 matches. This is a significant step up in competition for Swiatek, who really hasn’t played great tennis on faster courts recently.

I’m not sure Kostyuk will win a set a set in this match, but I’d be surprised if she doesn’t win at least seven games. Swiatek won 6-2, 6-1 when these two met at Indian Wells earlier in the year, but that’s not your typical hard-court tournament. The conditions at Indian Wells are so slow that it really plays more like clay, which is Swiatek’s best surface. Well, Cincinnati is one of the fastest tournaments of the year, and that’s crucial when looking at this matchup. Kostyuk is an absolute ball basher from the baseline, capable of ripping shots from both wings and really rushing her opponents. That’s massive because Swiatek absolutely hates being rushed.

All in all, this is a match that Swiatek should find a way to win, but I don’t see her hitting Kostyuk off the court. The Ukrainian has the ability to make her uncomfortable.

Bet: Kostyuk Over 6.5 Games Won (+100)