7 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-3, 35.5)

The Eagles (1-0) beat the Ravens 16-13 in their preseason opener, covering as 1.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Patriots (1-0) just brushed aside the Panthers 17-3, easily covering as 6.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is leaning toward the Eagles, as 54% of spread bets are backing Philadelphia. However, despite this public support we’ve seen the line completely flip to Patriots -3. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on New England (+2.5 to -3). The Patriots are receiving 46% of spread bets but 61% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Game day movement is also in New England’s favor, as the Patriots have moved from -2.5 to -3 from overnight to today.

The main reason for this drastic line move toward the Patriots is the fact that New England is expected to feature their starters on both sides of the ball, possibly for an extended period of time. Meanwhile, the Eagles are only expected to play their starters for as little as one series. It’s also worth nothing that these two teams have been duking it out in joint practices this week. The biggest storyline from joint practices is how poorly the Patriots offense has performed, specifically along the offensive line. As a result, the Patriots may elect to play their starters for longer because they need the reps in order to improve, while the Eagles’ top players got their work in and thus have no reason to risk injury. The Patriots also enjoy a slight “rest vs tired” advantage as they played last Thursday while the Eagles are on a short week having played on Friday. New England is also playing their second straight home game while Philadelphia is playing their second straight road game.

In terms of the quarterbacks, New England is expected to start Jacoby Brissett, followed by Drake Maye, Joe Milton and possibly Bailey Zappe. On the flip side, the Eagles are likely to start Jalen Hurts for a single series, followed by Kenny Pickett and Tanner McKee.

Dogs went 11-6 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI in Week 1 of the preseason. Those looking to target the Patriots in an “information based bet” scenario but wary of this trend could elect to play the New England first half moneyline at -165 instead of laying the full game points, as second halves can be highly unpredictable as they are littered with backups and variance. Favorites are 9-4-4 (69%) with an 11% ROI on the first half money this preseason.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from an opener of 33.5 to a high water mark of 36.5. However, over the past 24-hours it has come crashing back down to 35 and even 34.5 at some shops. Currently 72% of bets and 71% of dollars are taking the under. Unders are 12-5 (71%) with a 35% ROI to start the preseason and both of these teams went under in Week 1. The forecast calls for low 70s with partly cloudy skies and mild 3-5 MPH winds at Gillette Stadium.