Karen Khachanov vs. Alexander Zverev

Khachanov has had an odd season. Once one of the most consistent performers on the ATP Tour, Khachanov is just 23-16 since the start of 2024. That winning percentage of 59.0% is the lowest he has had since 2020. Khachanov also really struggled in the short grass-court season, going 1-3 in four matches. That was a little surprising for a player with a big game and a 24-15 career ATP record on the surface. However, Khachanov generally comes alive at this point in the year, and there’s really no reason he can’t find his game soon. By all accounts, the Russian is currently healthy and that makes it hard to imagine his struggles will last. Khachanov also played one of his best matches of the season on Monday, earning a 6-0, 6-3 win over Francisco Cerundolo. Now, I like the Russian to build off that performance by pushing Zverev.

Zverev beat up on Khachanov when the two met at the Miami Open in March, earning a 6-1, 6-4 victory in just an hour and 10 minutes. However, Khachanov wasn’t playing particularly well at that point in the season, and the Russian is getting Zverev at a good time. Zverev just played a pretty lousy match against Sebastian Korda in Montreal, and the German hasn’t been in great form lately. He has suffered some really bad losses, including one to Arthur Fils in Hamburg and a straight-set loss against Lorenzo Musetti at the Olympics. That should give Khachanov some hope that he can go out there and compete here. And the reality is that Zverev’s forehand completely broke down against Korda. So, if Khachanov does a good job of peppering that side of the court, he should be in good shape.

Khachanov is also a guy that can really lock in with the ball on his racquet, and Cincinnati favors players with big serves. That said, I expect this match to have a very close set or two, and I think it’s worth taking a chance on Khachanov to take one of them. For what it’s worth, he has beaten Zverev twice in his career, so it’s not like this matchup has been a nightmare for him.

Bet: Khachanov +1.5 Sets (-105 – 1.5 units)

Yulia Putintseva vs. Coco Gauff

If you’ve been reading my tennis work over the last year or so, you probably know that I’m not the biggest believer in Gauff’s game. I just think it’s really hard to win matches convincingly with a miserable forehand, and her serve is also getting worse and worse. With that in mind, I’m taking Putintseva to win a set off the American in Cincinnati. I know that Gauff arguably played the best tennis of her career at this event last year, but Putintseva is just a wall along the baseline. So, if Gauff isn’t able to prevent herself from leaking errors on the forehand side, Putintseva is going to extend rallies and make her hit as many forehands as possible. That should allow her to get on the board.

Of course, I should quickly mention that I’m approaching a buying point on Gauff to win the US Open. For as uninspiring as she can be, she’s now +850 to win the event. Those odds are a lot more favorable than they were just a couple of weeks ago, and Gauff is capable of getting on a heater in front of a raucous New York crowd.

Bet: Putintseva +1.5 Sets (-103 – 1.5 units)