Matteo Berrettini vs. Holger Rune

Berrettini has quietly looked like an elite player for most of the 2024 season. Berrettini is 21-6 for a win percentage of 77.8%, has a hold percentage of 92.6% and has won three titles this year. In 2021, which is viewed as his best season on tour, Berrettini was 42-13 for a 76.4% win percentage, had a hold percentage of 90.0% and won two titles. With that in mind, I think it’s time to start handicapping Berrettini like a top-10 player. Meanwhile, Rune hasn’t even looked the part of a top-20 player lately.

When looking at this on-court matchup, it’s hard not to view Rune’s returning numbers as a huge problem. Rune’s break percentage is down at 17.9% this year, which is the lowest mark of his career. He’s just not consistently getting into his opponent’s serve, and that’s going to be an issue against one of the top servers on the planet. Berrettini also just comes to the court with a clear game plan, which is to rack up holds and do everything he can to set up his big forehand. Rune is incredibly talented and can do nearly everything at a high level. But that is almost a detriment to him. He looks to rely a little too heavily on his overall ability, and he doesn’t seem to play with much clarity.

These conditions also suit Berrettini a little better. The Italian is just so dominant with the serve, whether it’s finding aces or setting up the serve-plus-one, making him hard to beat on a quicker court. Rune can’t quite show off his variety on a surface like this.

Bet: Berrettini ML (-149 – 1.5 units)

Corentin Moutet vs. Fabian Marozsan

Marozsan has really been struggling lately. He comes into this match after having lost seven of his last 10, and his most recent performance was a disaster. Marozsan blew a 5-2 lead in the second set against Pablo Carreno Busta, who has struggled since returning from injury, and ended up losing a tiebreaker. Marozsan then lost the third set in pretty convincing fashion. He’s just not playing good tennis right now, and he looked like he was low in energy after the first set of that match against Carreno Busta. With that in mind, I like the idea of taking Moutet against him.

Moutet actually comes into this match after having won eight of his last 11, and he played really well in qualifying here. Moutet earned wins over Daniel Altmaier and Marton Fucsovics, so he should be confident as he moves to the main draw. Moutet is also a tough player to get comfortable against, which isn’t what Marozsan needs right now. Moutet plays with a ton of variety, as he does a great job of mixing in topspin and slice from both wings. He’s also excellent when it comes to constructing points, and he is a master at using the drop shot. So, even though Moutet’s serve can be somewhat easy to break, I think he has what it takes to throw Marozsan off and win this match.

Bet: Moutet ML (-125)

Mirra Andreeva vs. Emma Navarro

Andreeva is going to be at a disadvantage early in this match, as she’s coming over from Paris after having played singles and doubles at the Olympics. Meanwhile, Navarro went deep into last week’s National Bank Open in Toronto, so she already got her feet wet on hard courts. However, I think that Andreeva has the game required to mess with Navarro a bit. The American is one of my favorite players on tour, as she’s just rock-solid in every part of the game. But she can occasionally get down on herself and start piling up bad misses, and that’s something that Andreeva tends to bring out of opponents. The 17-year-old is one of the best movers on the planet, and she plays elite defensive tennis. So, she’s going to force Navarro to hit a lot of extra balls in this one. On top of that, I think Andreeva’s backhand will be the biggest weapon on the court in this match.

Really, the only thing I’m worried about here is that Andreeva’s serve and forehand leave a lot to be desired. But it’s not like Navarro is all that reliable with the ball on her racquet either. In fact, her serve got away from her a bit against Amanda Anisimova in Toronto. If she doesn’t patch that up quickly, Andreeva will tee off on it. The teenager is a fantastic returner.

I also think that Andreeva is going to win over the crowd in this match, and that’s another thing that could get under Navarro’s skin. The American will be expecting the fans to pull for her in Cincinnati, but it’d be surprising if Andreeva doesn’t get some love. All in all, I just think this is a match that is a little closer to a 50-50, and I really give a slight edge to Andreeva. So, at plus-money odds, I’m going for it.

Bet: Andreeva ML (+114 – 1.5 units)