6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians (-155, 9)

The Guardians (70-49) won last night’s series opener 9-8, cashing as +105 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (59-61) hand the ball to righty Javier Assad (5-3, 3.24 ERA) and the Guardians counter with lefty Matthew Boyd, who is making his 2024 debut. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -125 home favorite and Chicago a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying short chalk at home, steaming Cleveland up from -125 to -155. The Guardians are receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 30-cent steam move in their favor. Cleveland has the better bats, hitting .241 with 138 homers and 551 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .237 with 124 homers and 511 runs scored. The Cubs are 27-43 on the road. The Guardians are 36-20 at home. Cleveland is 49-22 (69%) with a 21% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB. The Guardians are 32-13 (71%) with a 27% ROI as a non-division favorite. Assad has a 4.17 ERA on the road compared to 2.38 at home. Boyd is returning from an elbow injury. He made five minor league rehab starts, posting a 0.83 ERA in 21.1 innings pitched.

7:40 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (-130, 8.5)

The Twins (66-52) posted an 8-3 victory in last night’s series opener, taking care of business as -160 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Royals (65-54) tap righty Seth Lugo (13-6, 2.72 ERA) and the Twins start righty Zebby Matthews, who is making his MLB debut. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -115 home favorite and Kansas City a +105 road dog. The public is happy to grab the plus money with Kansas City in a bounce back spot. However, despite 59% of moneyline bets taking the Royals we’ve actually seen this line move further toward the Twins -115 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota, with Pros fading trendy dog Kansas City and instead laying the short chalk with the Twins at home. Minnesota is 55-30 (65%) with a 9% ROI as a favorite this season, the second best chalk team in MLB. The Royals are 27-29 on the road. The Twins are 35-23 at home. Minnesota is 6-2 against Kansas City this season. Matthews is the 6th ranked Twins prospect. He has posted as 6-3 record with a 2.60 ERA in the minor leagues prior to his call up. The Twins have the better bullpen, posting an ERA of 3.94 compared to 4.27 for the Royals.

8:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-120, 9) at Milwaukee Brewers

The Dodgers (70-49) took last night’s series opener 5-2, cruising as -115 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers turn to righty Gavin Stone (9-5, 3.71 ERA) and the Brewers (67-51) go with fellow righty Colin Rea (10-3, 3.38 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 road favorite and Milwaukee a +105 home dog. Wiseguys are riding the hot hand and are once again targeting Los Angeles laying short road chalk, steaming the Dodgers up from -115 to -120. Los Angeles is receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling slight public support but also respected smart money in the form of a 5-cent steam move in their direction. Non-division road favorites off a win are 138-99 (58%) with a 3% ROI this season. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 178-142 (56%) with a 4% ROI. The Dodgers also match a “value play” system, as they are 22-13 (63%) with a 12% ROI this season as a favorite of -150 or less. Los Angeles has the more explosive offense, hitting 158 homers and scoring 587 runs compared to Milwaukee hitting 127 homers and scoring 572 runs. Los Angeles is 3-1 against Milwaukee this season.

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