Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs. Zhizhen Zhang

The court speeds in Cincinnati tend to be extremely fast, so that favors massive servers like Mpetshi Perricard in a big way. The Frenchman, who stands at 6-foot-8 and almost looks like a tennis version of Victor Wembanyama, has one of the biggest serves on tour, which is part of the reason he’s holding at 88.9% this season. And realistically, that alone makes it hard to imagine a scenario in which Zhang will win this match. While Zhang is a player with all-court power and a massive edge from the baseline against Mpetshi Perricard, he can occasionally play some loose service games. His hold percentage is down at 81.5% on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, and he gives his opponents a good amount of break point opportunities. Well, that should ultimately doom him against Mpetshi Perricard in these conditions. Also, even if these guys both hold all the way to tiebreakers, that would give a slight nod to Mpetshi Perricard. The young Frenchman has won eight of the 12 tiebreakers he has played in 2024. Zhang has lost 13 of the 22 he has played.

Bet: Mpetshi Perricard ML (+102 – 1.5 units)

Reilly Opelka vs. Ben Shelton

My line of thinking with this match isn’t all that different from the previous one. Opelka is the definition of a “servebot.” Outside of a missile of a serve, he doesn’t have many other positive qualities on a tennis court. However, he arguably has the most untouchable serve on the planet, so he should be able to rack up service holds against Shelton, who is a very poor returner. That’s ultimately why I’m comfortable taking 2.5 games in this match. While that might seem like a very small game spread, it’s highly likely that Opelka would lose 7-6, 7-6 if he ends up falling in straight sets here. But I actually think he’ll end up stealing a set, as Shelton has played some sloppy tennis over the last couple of weeks.

Bet: Opelka +2.5 Games (-115)

Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Daria Kasatkina

I’m pretty surprised that Alexandrova is going off at plus-money odds here. When Kasatkina is on her game, she’s undoubtedly a better player than her opponent. But Kasatkina also happens to be dealing with the yips right now. In her loss to Caroline Dolehide in Washington D.C., Kasatkina racked up 14 double faults. The Russian then followed that up with 11 double faults in a loss to Amanda Anisimova in Toronto. She’s simply not making enough first serves to beat quality opponents right now, as she’s just not able to find the box with her second. Until that changes, I’m going to be fading her pretty aggressively. Alexandrova also happened to beat her in straight sets when they met on a hard court last year, so she’s not going to be intimidated when these two get into baseline exchanges.

Bet: Alexandrova ML (+120 – 2 units)