The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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2:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins (-115, 8)
This is the fourth and final game of a four-game series. The Twins (65-51) took the first two games, sweeping Friday’s doubleheader 4-2 as -165 home favorites and winning the nightcap 6-3 as -105 home dogs. Then the Guardians (68-49) bounced back with a 2-1 win yesterday, cashing as +100 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Guardians start righty Tanner Bibee (9-4, 3.48 ERA) and the Twins rebuttal with fellow righty David Festa (2-2, 5.55 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 road favorite and Minnesota a +105 home dog. The public is all over the Guardians to earn a win and split the series as a short road favorite. However, despite 68% of moneyline bets backing Cleveland we’ve seen this line completely flip away from the Guardians (-115 to +105) and toward the Twins (+105 to -115). This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Minnesota, with pros backing the home team and driving the line bigly in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 379-259 (59%) with a 2% ROI this season. Sunday home favorites playing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 79-44 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Minnesota is 54-30 (64%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite, the second best chalk team in MLB. The Twins are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .254 with a 3.68 ERA. The Guardians are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .233 with a 5.16 ERA.
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08-11-24 05:58 PM |
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