The UFC is back in its APEX center this week for UFC LV95, an eleven-fight card populated with an international array of lesser-known UFC combatants. Three bouts feature 170-pound (or larger) men fighting in the smaller 25-foot diameter APEX octagon. In contrast, the remaining bouts are competitively matched with smaller athletes, where the wrestling/grappling combatant could have a slight advantage.

Favorites marched to a 12-1 result last week and stand 212-95-8 in 2024, which renders investing in underdogs a risky proposition.

Serghei Spivac -145 vs. Marcin Tybura +120
Heavyweight (265 pounds) Main Event

This is a rematch of a 2020 fight in which Polish veteran Tybura, then an experienced 34-year-old UFC veteran, introduced twenty-five-year-old Moldovan neophyte Spivac to the heavyweight division by winning a close decision over the ‘Polar Bear,’ who was competing in his third UFC fight.

In that first fight, the betting line on Tybura closed at -125. Tybura used all his cardio, guile, and experience to win over the younger, more energetic, but less experienced Spivac. Since then, each has won the fights they should have while dropping marquee opportunities to athletes who are more gifted than they are when it comes to heavyweight MMA weaponry and tactics.

Flash forward four years, and Tybura, now even more experienced at 37, stands ready to defend his eighth rank in the division against old foe Spivac, who happens to be ranked ninth.

In a small cage, large lumbering men with ill intent will offer excitement in the initial stages of this fight, but after six minutes or so, this one could turn into a slow dance at the high school prom.

These two mammoth heavyweights are neither dynamic physically nor, to be honest, athletically. After the first six to seven minutes, we’ll witness groping, mauling, and maneuvering within the small cage once the crispness of each fighter’s strikes has dulled.

When this fight is completed, I believe Serghei Spivac will earn a decision victory in a battle that will mean much to both the victor and the defeated but little else to anyone but us investors.

I sense revenge.

UFC Prediction: Spivac -145

Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Under -130

Jose “Chepe” Mariscal -210 vs. Damon Jackson +180
Featherweight (145 pounds)

This new co-main event will be a tremendous clash of styles as a short, sawed-off Mariscal looks to incapacitate the crafty, beguiling submission artist Jackson.

Jackson is the grizzled veteran who will stand four inches taller than Mariscal. He’ll hold a two-inch arm reach advantage to go with his four-inch leg reach edge, which in past fights has allowed him to use those thin appendages to clasp onto necks, heads, arms, and legs.

Jackson earned a victory in his last fight against Alex Hernadez and showed vastly improved striking but dropped his two previous bouts to Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo, respectively. He works behind a decent jab, gut-wrenching teep kicks, and forward pressure when the war goes his way.

In Chepe Mariscal, we have a human chain saw. Chepe is short, squat, forward-pressing, and as tempered as an anvil. He forges forward with one intent: to attack the opponent with power strikes/kicks that deliver numbing results. Chepe ‘makes’ fights, but in this battle, I believe we’ll see him approach Jackson with initial caution. He must not force his way into a lack of submission awareness while working to engage.

Jackson must employ a stiff jab to neutralize Chape’s inward press and maintain distance for his elbows and knees to catch the maniacal Mariscal on entry. Entry is the key to this fight, for ultimately, Chepe wants to be inside lobbing power bombs at Jackson, and Jackson may well want Chepe working into him for the submission comes far easier with a forceful foe.

Jackson’s length, experience, and level of competition provide him with a great opportunity to turn back Mariscal in this fight. However, he’ll need to overcome a couple of rounds of pure ferocity if he is to do it unless he can find the aggressive striker’s neck while the fight is early and the skin is dry.

Mariscal’s momentum from three straight wins over bona fide UFC competition, combined with his compact frame, extreme aggression, forward pressure, granite chin, and profuse power, force me to believe that a Chepe, a man who has never been submitted, could make this four-in-a-row in the UFC.

Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -125

Danny Barlow -340 vs. Nikolay Veretennikov +285
Welterweight (170 pounds)

Barlow is young, fast, powerful, and on the ascent despite having yet to be really tested in the UFC.

Short-notice replacement fighter Veretennikov arrives with few credentials except that he’s won a couple of fights and was available to replace Uros Medic on very short notice. Veretennikov is a durable, tough methodical finisher who will look to make a name for himself at this late stage of a fighting career.

In this fight, we have the big name who needs to look dominant, but will the short-notice replacement be game for the upset, a solid showing, or a beating?

Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -210.

This total is based on what Barlow is expected to do. I believe Veretennikov is much more durable than one-and-a-half rounds.

Marcin “Tybur” Tybura (+124) vs Serghei “Polar Bear” Spivac (-148)
Over 3.5 Rounds (-125) | Under 3.5 Rounds (-105)

Marcin Tybura is the rare UFC fighter who has looked much better in the latter half of his career than the first. He is a heavyweight, and as we know, this division allows for late-career resurgence more often than the lighter classes. He is eating too in his last 10 UFC fights after starting his career 4-5 in the octagon. His game isn’t too flashy; he strikes well and has good power. His takedown defense is solid, and once he is taken down, he’s not completely lost. He can also land takedowns to ground opponents. Four and half years ago, he fought a young Serghei Spivac and won via decision. He landed 43 significant strikes and two takedowns to get the victory on the judges’ scorecards.

Five of Tybura’s twelve UFC victories have come inside the distance. He is by no means an exciting fighter, and his best highlight moments come from facing opposition who is totally out of their depth. Despite not being flashy, he is very effective. I do not expect him to leave himself open to anything that will end this fight. Tybura has never been submitted in the Octagon, but he has been knocked out four times. However, the profiles of those fighters are much different than what he will be facing in this main event. Knocking out Tybura takes a ton of speed and power, two things that are not defining characteristics of Spivac’s striking.

Serghei Spivac will enter the Octagon for the 12th time at only 29 years old. He is 7-4 in the UFC with five finishes and two decision wins. He has lost one decision (versus Tybura) and has been knocked out three times. However, the guys who have finished Spivac are much faster and more powerful than Tybura. Spivac’s raw strength and wrestling power is undeniable. He averages over four and a half takedowns per 15 minutes in the cage. That is a lot of lifting and cardio when your opponents are usually around 260 pounds. He is not afraid to throw hands and has a decent significant strikes landed per minute at 3.54, but it is a deficit as he absorbs 3.79 per minute. Additionally, his takedown accuracy is 64%, which may not be good enough versus a veteran like Tybura who still maintains a 79% takedown defense rate. The last time these guys fought, Tybura’s takedown defense held up, and Spivac could not get his opponent to the ground.

This fight hung around a pick ’em until earlier this week when Spivac money started to come in. On Thursday, Spivac was as high as a -170 favorite at DraftKings. I understand why Spivac has taken money; he’s nine years younger and has a unique style for this division in that he spams takedowns like someone much smaller than heavyweight. But I still do not understand why people are ready to dance on Tybura’s grave. He is a true professional and has lasted this long for a reason. Lastly, this is the weight class where guys can peak later than any other; we have seen champions in their 40s and guys making runs deep into their 30s, and I have not seen Tybura’s skills diminish yet.

Damon “The Leech” Jackson (+164) vs Chepe “Machine Gun” Mariscal (-198)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-130) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)

Damon Jackson is easy to root for because he goes full effort until the final bell. He always thinks he has a shot to land that fight-ending submission. That said, he’s a bit of a one-note fighter, and when fights are on the feet for prolonged periods of time, he gets exposed. He has been the underdog in his last three fights, losing two, but he did win his last time out versus Alexander Hernandez. That split decision victory showed fight fans exactly what Damon Jackson is about, competing until the last minute if you don’t find a way to get the finish. Overall, he has a 6-4-1 record in the UFC with one no contest. He has one victory via knockout and two via submission. He has been submitted one time and been knocked out twice. Jackson is a guy who does not have the greatest wrestling metrics, considering he is mostly a grappler. It shows a willingness to go to the ground, whether it’s on his terms or his opponents because he believes he can fight off of his back, his side, and his butt. If the fight is on the ground, he believes he has a chance.

Chepe Mariscal got his UFC start three fights ago as a late replacement opponent for Trevor Peek. He closed as a slight underdog and won that fight decisively via decision. He was a bigger underdog in his subsequent UFC fights but is still undefeated in the organization. If Damon Jackson wins, ugly Chepe Mariscal wins disgustingly. but the ability to find a way to win in a fight where he’s at a physical disadvantage, experience disadvantage, height disadvantage, statistical disadvantage, etc. cannot be overlooked. His pedigree comes from his experience fighting in lower-tier organizations. Five of the six losses he suffered before making it to the UFC were versus opponents who ended up in the octagon at some point in their careers. Yes, he only has three UFC fights, but he has the experience of someone who has been in the organization for nearly a decade. Compared to his opponent, he is a more accurate striker and lands more volume. Additionally, he has never been submitted and his two knockout losses were to Steve Garcia and Joanderson Brito—more powerful strikers than Jackson.

It’s cool that two under-the-radar professional mixed martial artists like Mariscal and Jackson are getting a shot at a co-main event. However, I think that this position on the card is more about the weakness of the show than the fact that these guys are going to put out an eye-popping performance in the cage. That said, it could be tight, but in the end, I believe Mariscal’s hands and veteran savvy will be too much for Damon Jackson to contend with.

Danny “LeftHand2God” Barlow (-380) vs Nikolay Veretennikov (+300)
Over 2.5 Rounds (+105) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-135)

Danny Barlow is an exciting prospect with an 8-0 record and 75% finish rate. He won in Contender Series via first-round knockout and his UFC debut via third-round knockout. He has landed 8.8 significant strikes per minute which is an unsustainable number. However, he is fighting Nikolay Veretennikov, who has bounced around lower leagues for most of his mixed martial arts career. Additionally, Barlow is an outlier because he has a 79-inch reach, which is the top end of what you generally will see in the 170-pound welterweight division. Despite winning his last fight via KO, some prognosticators were a bit disappointed that it took until the third round, considering he was outstriking his opponent nearly three to one. Dana White wants this fight to be seen as it is third from the top of this card and Danny Barlow has an exciting style that the UFC can get behind. He missed weight by 0.3 pounds, and if he doesn’t show out in this marquee position on the card, he could be pushed to the back of the line.

Nikolay Veretennikov is a mixed martial arts veteran with a 12-4 record that was amassed at a variety of lower-level organizations. He started his mixed martial arts career with a 1-3 record and has since gone 11-1. The one loss he sustained since his slow start was in Contender Series three years ago versus Michael Morales. He made it to a decision in that fight, which is commendable considering Morales is 16-0 as a professional and now 4-0 in the UFC. Ten of Veretennikov’s professional wins have come inside the distance, giving him a finish rate of 83%. Nine of those wins were via knockout, and he is not afraid to trade strikes. On the regional scene, he did not see anyone too imposing, but he did knock out Charlie Ontiveros in Fury FC back in 2016, and Ontiveros, for some reason, did make it onto the UFC roster at one point. If you put his resume side by side with Barlow’s, you may be surprised to see that he probably has seen a greater strength of schedule overall, considering he has seen twice as many opponents.

Barlow is the exact opposite of the type of fighter that I like to bet on. He has few professional fights and a high finish rate versus bad competition. On the other hand, Veretennikov is a veteran who has been waiting for this opportunity for a long time. Additionally, Veretennikov’s gym is the very legit Kings MMA out of Huntington Beach and is full of former and current high-level UFC athletes. I expect both fighters to be feeling pressure to knock their opponent’s head off, so I much prefer taking this fight to be finished early than choosing a side. The price on Barlow is just too high and Veretennikov still needs to answer many questions regarding his true ceiling as a mixed martial artist.

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Chris “El Guapo” Gutierrez (-550) vs Quang “Bang” Le (+410)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-200) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+154)

Chris Gutierrez is a damn good fighter. In the UFC, he is 8-3-1, with all three of those losses coming to very experienced and dangerous opponents. He is a great kickboxer who lands devastating leg kicks to control distance, and he has solid takedown defense. It is hard to go 12 fights in the UFC and still have a 58% striking accuracy number while having one of the division’s best striking defense rates at 63%. He is the more technical striker every time he steps into the octagon. His losses have come when he faces an opponent who makes things dirty and has overwhelming striking power. The two most recent opponents to beat Gutierrez are Pedro Munoz and Song Yadong. Both opponents landed big strikes early and made Gutierrez fight off the back foot. They were not afraid of his volume strikes because they knew that it was unlikely he’d be able to put them down.

Quang Le has an interesting resume. He’s 8-0 overall and 7-0 in LFA. Despite being undefeated and having seven LFA fights, he has never fought for a belt in that UFC feeder organization. Le got called up to the big show after Javad Basharat had to withdraw from his scheduled fight with Gutierrez, and Le was supposed to fight in Contender Series next month. Now, he is facing an opponent ranked in the top ten not long ago. There are tons of guys who have transitioned from the LFA and put together excellent UFC careers, including Chirs Gutierrez, but the fact that Le was never really the main event in his LFA run raises my eyebrows. When watching Le, you can tell he has power, but he usually tries to land one big shot instead of landing combinations in flow. And that is not a good recipe for beating a veteran like Chris Gutierrez unless he lands a decisive headshot early.

Yana “Foxy” Santos (-155) vs Chelsea Chandler (+130)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-360) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+260)

Yana Santos needs a win in a major way; she’s 0-3 in her last three fights and just 2-4 in her last six. Overall, she’s 4-5 in the UFC and a true veteran of the organization; however, she is relegated to a gatekeeper role at this point in her career. Seven of her nine UFC fights have gone the distance, and she has never won before the final bell in the octagon. On paper, she’s a capable striker with good offensive and very average defensive metrics, but she is far from an efficient grappler.

Chelsea Chandler has missed weight for the second consecutive fight. This time, it was a major mess up as she came in five pounds over the women’s bantamweight limit of 136. Last time out, she used her extra weight to her advantage as she grinded out a decision versus Josiane Nunes, and I have a feeling that will be the plan again here. Her striking is below average and her takedown accuracy is only slightly better. That said, if she can muck this fight up and keep it from being a pure technical striking match, she has a real shot to wear Santos out in the clinch and on the ground.

Karol Rosa (-218) vs Pannie “Banzai” Kianzad (+180)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-540) | Under 2.5 Rounds (+360)

Karol Rosa has traded wins and losses in her last six fights. She is coming off of a loss as an underdog to Irene Aldana. Rosa is a volume striker, landing 6.34 significant strikes per minute throughout her nine trips to the octagon. She also is capable of mixing in the takedown but that is not generally her preferred path to victory. Every time she has stepped into the cage, the fight has gone to the final bell because she knows how to protect herself. She does not possess overwhelming power or a strong submission game.

Pannie Kianzad is the definition of a roster filler in the UFC. She has 10 fights in the organization and a 5-5 record. She is 1-3 in her last four trips to the octagon, dating back to September 2021. She is a capable striker, and she has the bare minimum for what I would consider an okay striking defense rate of 53%. The problem is that it seems like she doesn’t know what it takes to win fights right now, she has been in some competitive contests but when crunch time has come around she has crumbled as of late. Additionally, she isn’t much of a grappler, so when things are not going her way on the feet, she does not have a great option for changing the complexion of the fight.

Karl Williams (-192) vs Jhonata Diniz (+160)
Over 2.5 Rounds (-110) | Under 2.5 Rounds (-120)

Karl Williams is the type of fighter who gives wrestlers a bad name. He is very much a great wrestler, but the problem is that he is a terrible finisher once he gets a dominant position on the ground. He is 3-0 in the UFC with three unanimous decisions versus three opponents finished by lesser opponents in their careers. He also won his Contender Series fight via unanimous decision. Generally, I look at takedowns for 15 minutes or takedowns per round in the UFC, but for Williams, I can just say he’s landed 4.75 takedowns per fight because all of his fights have gone the full distance. As a dominant wrestler, he hardly ever gets hit, only receiving 1.7 significant strikes per minute in the cage while landing a paltry 2.87. That said, it’s hard to fault a guy for fighting a safe style that yields undeniable results. His one pro loss happened via triangle early in his career. Since then, he has learned not to put himself in dangerous BJJ positions.

Jhonata Diniz is a very gifted striker with fast hands for a heavyweight. He won via knockout in Contenders Series, and he won via knockout in his UFC debut. His striking acumen comes from his experience as a professional kickboxer. As a professional mixed martial artist, he has a 7-0 record with seven knockouts, six of which have come in the first round. In his last fight, Austen Lane took him down. Austen Lane is a great athlete, but he is not a good technical wrestler. If Lane can get the fight to the ground versus Diniz, then there could be some big issues for the prospect in this fight. The only issue is that because Williams is not a finisher that means there will be at least three chances for Diniz to land a devastating blow on the feet in this fight. and I believe Diniz will be the best Striker that Williams will have faced in the UFC.

Best Bet: Santos -150

Only 55% bets but 79% money and sharp steam -125 to -150

Significant strikes/min 4.16 vs 3.45

Striking accuracy 56% vs 45%

More experience, faced better competition, desperate off 3 straight losses