YRFI -104 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: Jose Soriano vs. Mitchell Parker

The situation here is eerily similar to the pick we made yesterday, in that the Nationals are at home with a nine-run implied total and an underpriced YRFI line.

Perhaps the big difference is the nine run total is juiced to the over, with some books already moving to 9.5. Usually the YRFI in games like that is priced at -130 or worse.

The visiting offense isn't quite as strong this time around, but at least the Angels are on the correct side of their platoon splits against the lefty Mitchell Parker. As are the Nats against right-handed Jose Soriano.

Both pitchers have first time through the order xFIPs around 4.00, so not terrible, but not enough for us to shy away at this price.

YRFI -108 (Play to -115)

Starting Pitchers: Miles Mikolas vs. Michael Lorenzen

Another game with a nine-run total and a low-juice YRFI is Cardinals Royals.

Both teams feature above-average offenses against righties based on full season numbers, but are arguably better than those numbers suggest. That's due to progression from the Royals young hitters, and the return of Willson Contreras for the Cardinals.

Both starters have first time through the order xFIP numbers on the wrong side of four, plus Kauffman stadium is the third-best hitters park in baseball. That's enough signs pointing in the same direction for this bet.