This is another pick that's primarily about the quality of the pitching, as both starters come into the game with first-time-through-the-order ERAs under 3.00.
(Well, under in the case, of Bradley, who's at an excellent 1.78.)
While we're paying a heavier price for this one than the previous game, the offenses involved are both somewhat worse, which makes up for the discrepancy. FanDuel is also well off the market consensus on that game, while this one has a similar line everywhere.
Starting Pitchers: Cole Ragans vs. Kutter Crawford
The pitching matchup here truthfully isn't ideal for the YRFI, with both pitchers holding overall ERA in the threes.
However, Kutter Crawford is noticeably worse early in games, with a 4.01 ERA and 4.83 xFIP his first time through the order.
With the Kansas City lineup becoming one of the better ones in baseball — at least through the first four or so hitters — that gives it a solid chance of getting a run home early.
More importantly, we don't often see plus-money YRFIs on games with an 8.5-run total, and that total seems to be trending upwards.
If it jumps any further, the plus-money will almost certainly be gone.