6:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (-120, 7) at Detroit Tigers

The Guardians (63-42) just took two of three against the Phillies, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as +110 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Tigers (52-55) just dropped two of three against the Twins, falling 5-0 yesterday as +130 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Guardians hand the ball to righty Tanner Bibee (8-4, 3.50 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Jack Flaherty (7-5, 2.95 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -110 road favorite and Detroit a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Guardians laying short chalk on the road, steaming Cleveland up from -110 to -120. The Guardians are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, signaling a combination of both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 153-128 (54%) with a 2% ROI this season. Cleveland is 45-21 (68%) with a 19% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in baseball. The Guardians have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is favored to win. Bibee has a 3.00 ERA on the road compared to 3.99 at home. Flaherty has a 3.50 ERA at home compared to 2.57 on the road.

7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at New York Mets (-115, 8.5)

The Twins (58-46) just took two of three against the Tigers, winning 5-0 yesterday as -140 road favorites. Conversely, the Mets (55-50) just split a four-game series against the Braves, losing 9-2 yesterday as -110 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Twins tap righty Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.27 ERA) and the Mets send out lefty Jose Quintana (5-6, 4.02 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -125 home favorite and Minnesota +105 road dog. The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with the Mets at home. However, despite receiving 56% of moneyline bets we’ve seen New York fall from -125 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota, as the line is moving in their favor (+105 to -105) despite receiving a minority of bets. The Twins are receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 57% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 10-cent adjustment in their direction. The Twins are 12-5 in Woods Richardson’s 17 starts this season. He has a 2.86 ERA in four July starts, allowing 7 earned runs in 22 innings pitched. Minnesota is hitting .277 against lefties this season, ranking 1st in MLB against southpaws.

8:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (-135, 7.5) at Houston Astros

The Pirates (53-52) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks but avoided the sweep with a 6-5 in extra innings yesterday, cashing as +105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Astros (55-50) just took two of three against the Dodgers but failed to earn the sweep by losing yesterday’s series finale 6-2 as -130 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Pirates start rookie phenom Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.93 ERA) and the Astros go with fellow righty Jake Bloss (0-1, 6.94 ERA). This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -155 road favorite and Houston a +140 home dog. The public is all aboard the Skenes bandwagon and currently 72% of moneyline bets are laying the chalk with the Pirates. However, despite receiving this lopsided support we’ve seen Pittsburgh fall from -155 to -135. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Astros (+140 to +115) as the line is moving in their favor despite being the unpopular side. Houston has a big edge at the plate, hitting .262 with 492 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .232 with 436 runs scored. The Astros are 8-7 (53%) with a 12% ROI as a dog against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season. Houston is hitting .262 against righties, 2nd best in MLB. Pittsburgh is hitting .227 against righties, ranking 26th.