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msudogs
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MLB Lagniappe 7/28

Atlanta (55-48) @ NY Mets (55-49)
— Lopez is 1-2, 3.50 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 11-7 in his starts.
— under 14-4
— allowed run in first inning: 1-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-4-4
— He is 2-2, 2.66 in 7 games (3 starts) against the Mets.

— Braves are 4-9 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 25-27 on road.
— under 21-8 last 29 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-103
— record in first 5 innings: 47-42-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-5.2-2

— Peterson is 2-0, 2.42 in his last five starts.
— New York won his last eight starts.
— over 6-3
— allowed run in first inning: 0-9
— record in first 5 innings: 7-1-1
— He is 3-4, 5.12 in nine starts vs Atlanta

— New York is 13-5 in its last 18 games.
— Mets are 28-27 at home.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 26-104
— record in first 5 innings: 45-42-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3.1-3

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Miami (39-66) @ Milwaukee (59-45)
— Tyler is 0-1, 3.86 in four starts.
— Marlins are 2-2 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 3-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Milwaukee.

— Marlins are 7-3 in their last ten games.
— Miami is 17-32 on road.
— over 16-6 last 22 games.
— scored run in first inning: 23-105
— record in first 5 innings: 33-62-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3.2-5

— Myers is 1-2, 3.86 in his last four starts.
— Milwaukee is 4-2 in his home starts.
— over 9-5
— allowed run in first inning: 6-14
— record in first 5 innings: 5-6-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Miami.

— Brewers lost three of last five games.
— They’re 29-19 at home.
— under 3-2 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 27-104
— record in first 5 innings: 49-42-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.2-3.2

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Washington (49-56) @ St Louis (53-51)
— Herz is 0-3, 5.89 in his last four starts.
— Washington is 3-5 in his starts.
— under 4-4
— allowed run in first inning: 0-8
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4
— He gave up five runs in 4.1 IP vs St Louis July 7th.

— Nationals are 7-4 in last 11 games.
— They’re 26-29 on road.
— over 4-0 last four road games
— scored run in first inning: 17-105
— record in first 5 innings: 42-54-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-5-3.2

— Mikolas is 2-1, 4.15 in his last three starts.
— St Louis is 8-5 in his last 13 starts.
— over 7-1 last eight home tilts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-21
— record in first 5 innings: 6-13-2
— He is 4-3, 3.28 in eight starts vs Washington

— Cardinals are 1-4 in last five games.
— They’re 26-24 at home.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 21-104
— record in first 5 innings: 39-48-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-5-4

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Pittsburgh (52-52) @ Arizona (55-50)
— Keller is 1-0, 2.50 in his last three starts.
— Pittsburgh is 11-2 in his last 13 starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 4-20
— record in first 5 innings: 11-6-3
— He is 1-0, 2.45 in three starts vs Arizona.

— Pirates are 10-5 in their last 15 games.
— They’re 26-26 on road.
— under 9-3 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 21-104
— record in first 5 innings: 44-40-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-5.2

— Diaz is 1-1, 5.40 in three starts.
— Arizona is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh.

— Arizona is 10-3 in its last 13 games.
— Diamondbacks are 28-24 at home.
— over 6-2 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 33-105
— record in first 5 innings: 48-39-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-3

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Colorado (38-68) @ San Francisco (52-55)
— Gomber is 1-1, 4.94 in his last four starts.
— Colorado is 3-8 in his road starts.
— over 5-2 last seven
— allowed run in first inning: 8-19
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6-4
— He is 2-4, 7.27 in six starts vs San Francisco.

— Rockies lost four of last five games.
— They’re 14-39 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 28-106
— record in first 5 innings: 40-53-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-4-4

— Hicks is 0-4, 8.18 in his last five starts.
— Giants are 1-7 in his last eight home starts.
— over 9-4 last 13 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 7-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-10-2
— He is 2-0, 3.60 in two starts vs Colorado TY.

— San Francisco is 4-1 in its last five games.
— Giants are 31-22 at home.
— under 9-3 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 24-107
— record in first 5 innings: 43-48-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2.1-7

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Minnesota (57-46) @ Detroit (52-54)
— Ober is 2-1, 3.24 in his last four starts.
— Twins are 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— under 7-3 last ten starts
— allowed run in first inning: 8-19
— record in first 5 innings: 10-8-1
— He is 2-0, 2.00 in three starts vs Detroit TY. .

— Twins are 3-2 in their last five games.
— Twins are 28-25 on road.
— over 6-1 last seven games.
— scored run in first inning: 28-103
— record in first 5 innings: 45-45-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-3

— bullpen game

— Detroit is 3-4 in its last seven games.
— Tigers are 25-25 at home.
— over 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 33-106
— record in first 5 innings: 43-45-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 9-4-2

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Texas (51-54) @ Toronto (48-56)
— Gray is 2-0, 2.84 in his last two starts.
— Texas is 3-4 in his road starts.
— over 4-2 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 6-17
— record in first 5 innings: 10-5-2
— He is 2-0, 5.85 in four starts vs Toronto.

— Rangers are 12-6 in last 18 games.
— They’re 22-31 on road.
— under 4-3 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 36-105
— record in first 5 innings: 46-42-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-7.1

— Berrios is 0-2, 7.36 in his last three starts.
— Toronto is 6-1 in his last seven home starts.
— over 6-1 last seven starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-21
— record in first 5 innings: 7-12-2
— He is 2-1, 6.75 in six starts vs Texas.

— Toronto is 9-7 in its last 16 games.
— Blue Jays are 25-28 at home.
— over 24-5 last 29 games
— scored run in first inning: 24-104
— record in first 5 innings: 43-48-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4.1-x

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Bronx (61-45) @ Boston (55-48)
— Rodon is 1-1, 4.20 in his last three starts.
— New York is 1-6 in his last seven starts.
— over 13-3 last 16 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 8-21
— record in first 5 innings: 10-9-2
— He is 2-4, 4.05 in seven starts vs Boston

— New York is 11-23 in its last 34 games.
— They’re 34-22 on road.
— over 22-9 last 31 games
— scored run in first inning: 35-106
— record in first 5 innings: 53-40-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3.1-6.2

— Houck is 1-0, 4.11 in his last three starts.
— Boston is 9-2 in his last 11 starts.
— over 6-3 last nine
— allowed run in first inning: 2-20
— record in first 5 innings: 11-6-3
— He is 3-2, 2.11 in eight starts vs New York.

— Red Sox lost six of last eight games.
— They’re 25-26 at home.
— over 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 33-103
— record in first 5 innings: 55-37-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.1-4-5.1

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Seattle (55-51) @ White Sox (27-80)
— Miller is 1-0, 0.96 in his last three starts.
— Seattle is 11-9 in his starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 3-20
— record in first 5 innings: 9-7-4
— He is 1-0, 0.64 in two starts vs Chicago.

— Seattle lost eight of last 11 games.
— Mariners are 24-28 on road.
— under 7-3 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 28-106
— record in first 5 innings: 47-43-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-5

— Crochet is 0-1, 2.38 in his last five starts.
— Chicago is 7-14 in his starts.
— under 16-5
— allowed run in first inning: 2-21
— record in first 5 innings: 7-9-5
— He is 0-0, 2.16 in three games (1 start) vs Seattle.

— White Sox are 1-16 in last 17 games.
— Chicago is 17-36 at home.
— under 12-6 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 20-107
— record in first 5 innings: 42-51-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-8.1-5

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Oakland (44-63) @ LA Angels (45-60)
— bullpen game

— A’s are 14-7 in last 21 games.
— Oakland is 8-19 in last 27 road games.
— over 8-3 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 23-107
— record in first 5 innings: 40-62-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-4-3

— Soriano is 2-0, 1.32 in his last two starts.
— Angels are 4-2 in his last six starts.
— under 3-0 last three starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-16
— record in first 5 innings: 7-8-1
— He is 0-2, 15.19 in three games (1 start) vs Oakland

— Angels lost their last three games.
— They’re 22-32 at home.
— under 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 23-105
— record in first 5 innings: 34-61-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.2-3.1-2

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Cleveland (62-42) @ Philadelphia (65-39)
— bullpen game

— Cleveland is 6-10 in its last 16 games.
— Guardians are 29-27 on road.
— under 10-2 last 12 games
— scored run in first inning: 27-104
— record in first 5 innings: 48-42-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-4.1

— bullpen game

— Phillies are 4-7 in their last 11 games.
— They’re 38-17 at home.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 38-104
— record in first 5 innings: 63-31-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-x

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Cincinnati (50-54) @ Tampa Bay (53-52)
— Greene is 2-0, 0.45 in his last three starts.
— Cincinnati is 4-5 in his road starts.
— under 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 3-20
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6-5
— He is 0-0, 1.00 in two starts vs Tampa Bay

— Reds are 3-5 in their last eight games.
— They’re 24-26 on road.
— over 8-5 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 29-104
— record in first 5 innings: 46-44-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3.1-4

— bullpen game

— Tampa Bay is 9-6 in its last 15 games.
— Rays are 28-28 at home.
— over 6-3 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-105
— record in first 5 innings: 39-50-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-2

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San Diego (57-50) @ Baltimore (61-43)
— Vasquez is 2-1, 1.71 in his last five starts.
— San Diego is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 7-14
— record in first 5 innings: 7-6-1
— He threw 5 shutout IP, in his one start vs Baltimore.

— Padres won their last seven games.
— They’re 31-22 on road.
— under 7-4 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 30-107
— record in first 5 innings: 46-46-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-6.1-2.2

— Suarez is 0-2, 15.43 in his last two starts.
— Orioles are 4-2 in his home starts.
— under 10-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-13
— record in first 5 innings: 6-6-1
— He is 0-1, 2.87 in two starts vs San Diego.

— Baltimore lost five of last six games.
— Orioles are 30-24 at home.
— over 8-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 24-104
— record in first 5 innings: 55-38-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-4-3

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Cubs (50-56) @ Kansas City (57-48)
— Assad is 0-1, 4.58 in his last five starts.
— Chicago is 2-6 in his last eight starts.
— under 11-5 last 16 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 9-7-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Kansas City.

— Cubs are 4-7 in their last 11 games.
— They’re 23-31 on road.
— under 7-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 23-106
— record in first 5 innings: 42-47-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-3.1

— Ragans is 2-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.
— Kansas City is 8-4 in his home starts.
— under 7-3 last 10 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-7-5
— He is 1-0, 3.24 in three games (1 start) vs Chicago

— Royals lost three of last four games.
— Royals are 36-21 at home.
— under 13-6 last 19 home games
— scored run in first inning: 28-105
— record in first 5 innings: 49-41-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-2.2

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Los Angeles (62-44) @ Houston (54-50)
— Ryan gave up a run in 5.1 IP, in his first ‘24 start.
— Dodgers are 1-0 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Houston.

— Dodgers won six of last nine games.
— Dodgers are 28-24 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven road games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-106
— record in first 5 innings: 52-43-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-2-2.1

— Arrighetti is 0-2, 6.00 in his last four starts.
— Houston is 7-11 in his starts.
— under 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 7-18
— record in first 5 innings: 4-11-3
— He hasn’t pitched against Los Angeles.

— Houston is 9-5 in its last 14 games.
— Astros are 30-21 at home.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 33-104
— record in first 5 innings: 49-43-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2.2-4.2

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Umpires
— Atl-NY- Under is 15-6 in Additon games.
— Colo-SF- Home favorites are 10-4 in Diaz games.
— Mia-Milw- Home favorites are 9-2 in Cuzzi games.
— Wsh-StL- Over is 13-8 in Vondrak games.
— Pitt-Az- Home favorites are 9-6 in Beck games

— Tex-Tor- Road underdogs are 8-5 in Ortiz games
— Minn-Det- Under is 7-3 in Bacon games.
— NYY-Bos- Over is 12-7 in Mahrley games.
— Sea-Chi- Underdogs are 10-11 in Scheurwater games.
— A’s-LAA- Underdogs are 12-8 in Rehak games.

— SD-Balt- Under is 8-4 in Wolf games
— Cin-TB- Over is 13-8 in Hamari games
— Clev-Phil- Under is 12-7 in Libka games.
— Chi-KC- Under is 13-9 in Wolcott games.
— LA-Hst- Under is 13-7 in BRMiller games.

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Trend: Jose Berrios is 24-5 (+15.80 units) in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-105 vs. TEX)

Trend: Colorado is 7-25 (21.9%, -15.13 units) in their last 32 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -47.3%
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at SF)

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(901) ATLANTA (55-48) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (55-49)
Trend: Under the total is 10-4 in the last 14 head-to-head meetings in NY (including 5-1 this season)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)

(903) MIAMI (39-66) at (904) MILWAUKEE (59-45)
Trend: MIL trending Over at home (29-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(907) COLORADO (38-68) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (52-55)
Trend: COL not as good on the road (14-39, -13.50 units)
System Match: FADE COLORADO (+170 at SF)

(909) PITTSBURGH (52-52) at (910) ARIZONA (55-50)
Trend: AZ trending Under vs. NL East/Central (13-25 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(911) NEW YORK-AL (61-45) at (912) BOSTON (55-48)
Trend: NYY more Over in divisional play (24-14 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9)

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(913) TEXAS (51-54) at (914) TORONTO (48-56)
Trend: TEX not as good on the road (22-31, -9.63 units)
System Match: FADE TEXAS (-115 at TOR)

(915) MINNESOTA (57-46) at (916) DETROIT (52-54)
Trend: MIN pretty good this season as road favorite (19-11 record)
System Match: PLAY MINNESOTA (-185 at DET)

(917) SEATTLE (55-51) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (27-80)
Trend: CWS decent as home favorite (4-2 record this season)
System Match: PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-112 vs SEA)

(921) CINCINNATI (50-54) at (922) TAMPA BAY (53-52)
Trend: CIN not as good during the day (18-27, -11.87 units)
System Match: FADE CINCINNATI (-130 at TB)

(923) CLEVELAND (62-42) at (924) PHILADELPHIA (65-39)
Trend: CLE slight Under in interleague play (7-15 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(925) SAN DIEGO (57-50) at (926) BALTIMORE (61-43)
Trend: SD slight Over during the day (25-17 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 9.5)

(927) LOS ANGELES-NL (62-44) at (928) HOUSTON (55-49)
Trend: LAD is just 2-8 as a road underdog this season
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (+105 at HOU)

(929) CHICAGO-NL (50-56) at (930) KANSAS CITY (57-48)
Trend: CHC worse vs. LH starters (6-14, -10.44 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO CUBS (+142 at KC)

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(907) COLORADO (38-68) at (908) SAN FRANCISCO (52-55)
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 3-17 (-11.20 units) as large underdog of +175 or more
System Match: FADE COLORADO (*if they become a +175 underdog or worse, +170 currently)

(911) NEW YORK-AL (61-45) at (912) BOSTON (55-48)
Trend: BOS is 3-12 (-9.55 units) in the -120 to +100 line range with starter Tanner Houck
System Match: FADE BOSTON (-108 vs NYY)

(913) TEXAS (51-54) at (914) TORONTO (48-56)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 24-5 (+15.80 units) in home day games in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TORONTO (-105 vs TEX)

(917) SEATTLE (55-51) at (918) CHICAGO-AL (27-80)
Trend: Bryce Miller is 7-1 (+6.19 units) against the AL Central in the last two seasons
System Match: PLAY SEATTLE (-108 at CWS)

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