1:37 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-125, 8.5) at Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays (48-56) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-5 as -115 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-3 as -125 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rangers (51-54) hand the ball to righty Jon Gray (5-4, 3.73 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with fellow righty Jose Berrios (8-8, 4.08 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Sharps have sided with the Rangers to avoid the sweep, steaming Texas up from -110 to -125. The Rangers are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split combined with a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 342-229 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 61-36 (63%) with a 6% ROI. Texas also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the team who is expected to win. Berrios has a 7.78 ERA in four July starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 19.2 innings pitched.

1:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at New York Mets (-120, 8)

This is the final game of a four-game series. The Mets (55-49) took the first two games, winning the opener 3-2 as -105 home dogs and taking the next game 8-4 as -125 home favorites. Then the Braves (55-48) bounced back with a 4-0 win yesterday, cashing as +105 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Braves turn to righty Reynaldo Lopez (7-4, 2.12 ERA) and the Mets send out lefty David Peterson (5-0, 3.14 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this 50/50 moneyline bet split we’ve seen the Mets climb from -110 to -120. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based on the line move that pros have gotten down on New York at a virtual coin-flip price. The Mets are receiving 51% of moneyline bets and 59% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 342-229 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. New York has correlative betting as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. New York has the better bats, hitting .248 with 136 homers and 504 runs scored compared to Atlanta hitting .239 with 121 homers and 432 runs scored. The Mets are 8-0 in Peterson’s last eight starts. He has a 2.49 ERA in four July starts, allowing only 6 earned runs in 21.1 innings pitched.

4:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 8.5)

The Diamondbacks (55-50) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-3 as -160 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-5 as -175 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Pirates (52-52) start righty Mitch Keller (10-5, 3.34 ERA) and the Diamondbacks tap fellow righty Yilber Diaz (1-1, 5.40 ERA). This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -120 road favorite and Arizona a +100 home dog. The public is siding with the Pirates to avoid to sweep. However, despite 56% of bets taking Pittsburgh we’ve seen this line completely flip away from the Pirates (-120 to -105) and toward the Diamondbacks (+100 to -115). This signals sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Arizona. The Snakes are receiving 44% of moneyline bets but 54% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian discrepancy. Arizona has the superior offense, hitting .254 with 522 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .232 with 430 runs scored. Sunday home teams facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous year are 72-40 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season. Arizona is 30-19 (61%) with a 4% ROI as a favorite this season, the 6th best chalk team in MLB.

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