Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays (-135, 8)
4:10 p.m. ET

A day after trading Randy Arozarena and losing 3-2 in extras to the Reds, the Rays are home favorites at the Trop for Game 2 of this weekend set. It will be Zack Littell for Tampa Bay and Andrew Abbott for Cincinnati on a day where both teams are sitting on some pins and needles wondering what the future might hold. Tampa is already a seller and Cincinnati may follow suit, depending on what happens in the NL Wild Card picture over the next few days.

It has been a tale of two seasons for Littell based on where his start is taking place. At home, Littell has a 3.36 ERA with a .250/.290/.390 slash against and a .298 wOBA. He has 58 strikeouts in 59 innings and has felt a lot more comfortable. On the road, he has a 5.81 ERA with a .343/.378/.557 slash and a .402 wOBA. Rafael Devers has a .401 wOBA. Andy Pages and Paul DeJong have a .298 wOBA.

So, Littell has been far better in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field. That’s where he’ll be for this start against a Reds team that hasn’t really seen him and ranks 19th in wOBA away from home at .301. Great American Ball Park is a great hitter’s park. Tropicana Field is not.

On the Abbott side of things, he has a 3.19 ERA with a 3.63 xERA. He does have a 4.84 FIP because the four components of FIP in HR, K, and BB and Abbott has not really shined in any of those areas. However, I think he’s gotten really unlucky on the home run front to allow 18 round-trippers, as he has a 32.1% Hard Hit% and a 7.9% Barrel% against.

As mentioned, Cincy is a good hitter’s park, so it should come as no surprise that Abbott has a higher wOBA and ERA at home than he does on the road. He’s worked 16.1 more innings on the road and has a .288 wOBA against with a 2.92 ERA. His HR/FB% also goes from 14.1% to 9.1%.

The Rays lost one of their top performers against lefties with the Arozarena deal and I don’t think the vibes are very high around the team right now. I think it could be a slow start for both teams today.

Pick: 1st 5 Under 4.5 (-120)

lucky W