6:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-130, 7) at Cleveland Guardians

The Tigers (49-51) just took two of three against the Blue Jays but lost Sunday’s series finale 5-4 as +155 road dogs. Conversely, the Guardians (59-39) just dropped two of three against the Padres, losing 2-1 yesterday as a -105 home pick’em play. In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers go with lefty Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.41 ERA) and the Guardians send out righty Carlos Carrasco (3-7, 5.02 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -105 odds. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Tigers at a coin-flip price with their ace on the mound, driving Detroit up from -105 to -130. The Tigers are receiving 61% of moneyline bets but 81% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 25-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 57-35 (62%) with a 4% ROI this season. Detroit also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is favored to win. The Tigers are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .267. The Guardians are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting just .189. Skubal is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young at -130.

7:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 8) at Minnesota Twins

The Phillies (63-36) just dropped two of three against the Pirates but avoided the sweep with a 6-0 win in yesterday’s series finale, cashing as -115 road favorites. Similarly, the Twins (54-44) just got swept in a two-game series against the Brewers, losing 8-7 yesterday as -155 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Phillies go with lefty Ranger Suarez (10-4, 2.76 ERA) and the Twins send out righty Bailey Ober (8-5, 4.14 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 road favorite and Minnesota a +115 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Phillies. However, despite receiving 78% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Philadelphia fall from -130 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota, as the line is moving toward the Twins (+115 to +100) despite the fact that they are the unpopular side. Minnesota is only receiving 22% of moneyline bets but 33% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Suarez has a 7.36 ERA in two July starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 11 innings pitched (both losses). The Twins are hitting .277 against lefties this season, best in MLB. Ober has a 3.00 ERA in two July starts, allowing 4 earned runs in 12 innings pitched. The Twins are 4-2 in Ober’s last six starts. He has a 3.29 ERA at home compared to 4.67 on the road.

8:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 8) at Chicago Cubs

The Brewers (57-42) just swept a two-game series against the Twins, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-7 as +145 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Cubs (48-53) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks but avoided the sweep with a 2-1 win in extras yesterday, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Tobias Myers (6-3, 3.13 ERA) and the Cubs counter with fellow righty Javier Assad (4-3, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -110 road favorite and Chicago a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Brew Crew laying a short chalk price, steaming Milwaukee up from -110 to -120. The Brewers are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 149-120 (55%) with a 3% ROI this season. Milwaukee is 34-22 (61%) with a 5% ROI as a favorite this season, including 28-15 (65%) with an 11% ROI as a favorite against teams with a below .500 record. The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .255 with 482 runs scored compared to the Cubs hitting .233 with 419 runs scored. Milwaukee is 6-2 in Myers’ last eight starts. He has given up one earned run or less in five of his last seven starts. He has a 2.56 ERA on the road compared to 3.78 at home. Chicago is just 1-6 in Assad’s last seven starts.

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