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msudogs
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MLB Lagniappe 7/30

Cubs (51-57) @ Cincinnati (51-55)
— Steele is starts.
— Chicago is 3-5 in his road starts.
— over 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 2-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-7-1
— He is 2-4, 5.75 in eight starts vs Cincinnati.

— Cubs are 5-8 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 24-32 on road.
— under 8-2 last ten games
— scored run in first inning: 23-108
— record in first 5 innings: 42-49-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3-3.2

— bullpen game

— Reds are 4-6 in their last ten games.
— They’re 26-28 at home.
— under 6-1 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 29-106
— record in first 5 innings: 48-44-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-1-4

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Atlanta (56-49) @ Milwaukee (61-45)
— Elder is 0-3, 8.53 in his last four starts.
— Atlanta is 3-5 in his starts.
— under 5-3
— allowed run in first inning: 2-8
— record in first 5 innings: 2-5-1
— He is 1-0, 2.08 in two starts vs Milwaukee

— Braves are 5-10 in their last 15 games.
— They’re 26-28 on road.
— under 21-10 last 31 games
— scored run in first inning: 28-105
— record in first 5 innings: 49-42-14
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-5-3

— Milwaukee hasn’t named a starter.

— Brewers are 7-3 in their last ten games.
— They’re 31-19 at home.
— over 5-0-1 last six home games
— scored run in first inning: 28-106
— record in first 5 innings: 50-43-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-5-3.2

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Los Angeles (63-44) @ San Diego (57-51)
— Glasnow is 0-1, 7.71 in his last three starts.
— Dodgers are 4-1 in his last five starts.
— over 5-1 last six
— allowed run in first inning: 3-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-9-3
— He is 0-0, 2.25 in two starts vs San Diego TY.

— Dodgers are 7-3 in last ten games.
— Dodgers are 29-24 on road.
— Dodgers are 11-7 in road series openers.
— under 6-2 last eight road games.
— scored run in first inning: 36-107
— record in first 5 innings: 53-43-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-3.1-x

— Waldron is 1-2, 3.79 in his last three starts.
— San Diego is 4-6 in his last ten starts.
— over 3-1 last four home starts
— allowed run in first inning: 9-21
— record in first 5 innings: 7-11-3
— He is 0-1, 2.61 in two starts against the Dodgers.

— Padres won seven of last eight games.
— They’re 26-28 at home.
— Padres are 8-9 in home series openers.
— over 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 30-108
— record in first 5 innings: 46-47-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-6-x

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Washington (49-58) @ Arizona (56-51)
— Corbin is 1-2, 4.00 in his last three starts.
— Washington is 2-11 in his last 13 starts.
— over 8-4 last 12 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-21
— record in first 5 innings: 6-14-1
— He is 0-3, 8.87 in five starts vs Arizona.

— Nationals are 2-5 in last seven games.
— They’re 26-31 on road.
— over 5-1 last six road games
— scored run in first inning: 18-107
— record in first 5 innings: 43-54-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-3-3.2

— Nelson is 2-0, 3.20 in his last four starts.
— Arizona is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— over 4-1 last five
— allowed run in first inning: 1-17
— record in first 5 innings: 7-8-2
— He is 1-0, 3.00 in two starts vs Washington

— Arizona is 11-4 in its last 15 games.
— Diamondbacks are 29-25 at home.
— over 8-2 last ten home games
— scored run in first inning: 33-107
— record in first 5 innings: 49-40-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5-4

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Toronto (50-57) @ Baltimore (63-44)
— Bassitt is 1-3, 6.23 in his last four starts.
— Toronto is 2-7 in his last nine starts.
— over 5-1 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-21
— record in first 5 innings: 8-7-8
— He is 3-2, 4.79 in six starts vs Baltimore.

— Toronto is 11-8 in its last 19 games.
— Blue Jays are 24-29 on road.
— over 27-5 last 32 games
— scored run in first inning: 26-107
— record in first 5 innings: 45-49-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-10.2

— Burnes is 1-1, 3.26 in his last three starts.
— Orioles are 14-0 with Burnes if they score 4+ runs.
— Orioles are 9-3 in his last 12 starts.
— over 9-3 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 5-21
— record in first 5 innings: 14-5-2
— He is 1-0, 1.38 in two starts vs Toronto TY.

— Baltimore lost six of last nine games.
— Orioles are 32-25 at home.
— over 11-1 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 26-107
— record in first 5 innings: 57-39-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4.1-7.2

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Seattle (56-52) @ Boston (56-49)
— Castillo is 2-1, 1.40 in his last four starts.
— Seattle is 4-6 in his road starts.
— under 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 7-22
— record in first 5 innings: 9-12-1
— He is 1-2, 5.06 in three starts vs Boston.

— Seattle won three of last four games.
— Mariners are 25-29 on road.
— over 6-2 last eight road games
— scored run in first inning: 29-108
— record in first 5 innings: 48-44-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-2.2-5.1

— Paxton was 1-1, 8.66 in his last four starts for LA.
— Dodgers were 14-4 in his starts.
— over 8-3 last 11
— allowed run in first inning: 6-18
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-2
— He gave up 2 runs in 5 IP, in his one start vs Seattle.
— He pitched for Seattle from 2013-18.

— Red Sox lost seven of last ten games.
— They’re 26-27 at home.
— over 8-1 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 33-105
— record in first 5 innings: 56-38-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.1-3-2.1

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Kansas City (58-49) @ White Sox (27-82)
— Wacha is 3-0, 2.89 in his last five starts.
— Kansas City is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— under 6-4 last 10 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-18
— record in first 5 innings: 7-7-4
— He is 2-1, 0.90 in three starts vs Chicago TY.

— Royals lost four of last six games.
— Royals are 23-27 on road
— over 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 29-107
— record in first 5 innings: 50-41-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-3.1-4.1

— Cannon is 0-3, 4.13 in his last four games.
— Chicago is 3-7 in his starts.
— under 6-4
— allowed run in first inning: 3-10
— record in first 5 innings: 4-5-1
— He is 0-1, 4.09 in two starts vs Kansas City TY.

— White Sox are 1-18 in last 19 games.
— Chicago is 17-38 at home.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 21-109
— record in first 5 innings: 42-52-15
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-6-3

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Bronx (63-45) @ Philadelphia (65-41)
— Cole is 2-1, 4.15 in his last three starts.
— New York is 4-3 in his starts.
— over 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 2-7
— record in first 5 innings: 4-3
— He is 6-3, 2.90 in nine starts against the Phillies.

— New York won its last three games, scoring 33 runs.
— They’re 36-22 on road.
— over 24-9 last 33 games
— scored run in first inning: 36-108
— record in first 5 innings: 55-40-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6.2-2.2-3.2

— Nola is 2-0, 3.52 in his last four starts.
— Phillies are 15-6 in his starts.
— over 3-1 last four starts
— allowed run in first inning: 4-21
— record in first 5 innings: 14-3-4
— He is 1-2, 2.88 in four starts vs New York

— Phillies are 4-9 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 38-19 at home.
— under 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 39-106
— record in first 5 innings: 63-32-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-5-4

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Minnesota (58-48) @ NY Mets (56-50)
— Festa is 1-1, 8.16 in three games (2 starts).
— Twins are 1-1 in his starts.
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-2
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1
— He hasn’t pitched against the Mets.

— Twins are 4-3 in their last seven games.
— Twins are 29-26 on road.
— over 7-2 last nine games.
— scored run in first inning: 29-105
— record in first 5 innings: 46-46-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-1-4.2

— Manaea is 1-1, 5.40 in his last three starts.
— New York are 5-1 in his last six starts.
— over 3-0 last three starts
— allowed run in first inning: 3-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-4
— He is 5-1, 2.48 in six games (5 starts) vs Minnesota

— New York is 14-6 in its last 20 games.
— Mets are 29-28 at home.
— over 6-2 last eight home games
— scored run in first inning: 27-106
— record in first 5 innings: 46-43-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-3

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Miami (39-66) @ Tampa Bay (54-52)
— Cabrera is 0-1, 7.41 in his last four starts.
— Marlins are 5-4 in his starts.
— over 8-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-9
— record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
— He is 0-2, 10.80 in two starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Marlins are 7-4 in their last 11 games.
— Miami is 17-33 on road.
— over 16-6-1 last 23 games.
— scored run in first inning: 24-106
— record in first 5 innings: 33-63-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-4-x

— Springs is making his first ’24 start.
— He was 2-0, 0.56 in three starts LY, before he got hurt.
— In his career, he is 21-10, 3.40 in 138 games (30 starts).
— This is his first start vs Miami.

— Tampa Bay is 10-6 in its last 16 games.
— Rays are 29-28 at home.
— under 6-0 last six home games.
— scored run in first inning: 26-106
— record in first 5 innings: 39-51-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-9-x

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Texas (52-55) @ St Louis (54-52)
— Scherzer is 1-1, 4..82 in his last four starts.
— Texas is 4-3 in his starts.
— under 5-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-7
— record in first 5 innings: 3-3-1
— He is 5-6, 2.50 in 15 starts vs St Louis.

— Rangers lost three of last four games.
— They’re 23-32 on road.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 36-107
— record in first 5 innings: 47-43-17
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7.1-5.2-3

— Lynn is 1-0, 1.64 in his last two starts.
— St Louis is 9-3 in his last 12 starts.
— under 7-4 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 6-20
— record in first 5 innings: 6-10-4
— He is 0-1, 1.74 in two starts vs Texas

— Cardinals are 2-5 in last seven games.
— They’re 27-25 at home.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 22-106
— record in first 5 innings: 39-49-18
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-4

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Pittsburgh (54-52) @ Houston (54-52)
— Pittsburgh hasn’t named a starter.

— Pirates are 11-5 in their last 16 games.
— They’re 28-26 on road.
— under 9-5 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 21-106
— record in first 5 innings: 44-42-20
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.2-3-3

— Brown is 3-0, 1.00 in his last three starts.
— Houston is 8-1 in his last nine starts.
— over 3-1 last four
— allowed run in first inning: 7-20
— record in first 5 innings: 12-7-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh.

— Houston is 9-7 in its last 16 games.
— Astros are 30-23 at home.
— over 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 33-106
— record in first 5 innings: 50-44-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.2-3-6

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Colorado (38-69) @ LA Angels (46-60)
— Quantrill is 1-1, 6.16 in his last four starts.
— Colorado is 10-5 in his last 15 starts.
— over 6-2 last eight
— allowed run in first inning: 2-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-8-4
— He is 1-1, 2.18 in five starts vs Anaheim.

— Rockies lost five of last six games.
— They’re 14-40 on road.
— Rockies lost their last six road series openers.
— over 7-2 last nine road games
— scored run in first inning: 28-107
— record in first 5 innings: 40-54-13
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4.1-x

— Canning is 0-2, 6.88 in his last four starts.
— Angels are 5-2 in his last seven home starts.
— under 8-3 last 11 starts
— allowed run in first inning: 9-21
— record in first 5 innings: 7-13-1
— He is 1-0, 2.31 in two starts vs Colorado

— Angels lost three of last four games.
— They’re 23-32 at home.
— Angels are 1-6 in last seven series openers.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 23-106
— record in first 5 innings: 35-61-10
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-2-6.1

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Oakland (44-64) @ San Francisco (53-55)
— Sears is 3-1, 4.98 in his last four starts.
— A’s are 4-1 in his last five starts.
— over 4-2 last six starts
— allowed run in first inning: 7-21
— record in first 5 innings: 9-11-1
— He hasn’t pitched against San Francisco.

— A’s are 14-8 in last 22 games.
— Oakland is 8-20 in last 28 road games.
— A’s are 8-3 in last 11 series openers.
— over 9-3 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 23-108
— record in first 5 innings: 40-63-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-4.1

— Ray gave up a run in 5 IP, in his first ‘24 start.
— Giants are 1-0 in his starts.
— over 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He is 2-2, 2.72 in seven starts vs Oakland.

— San Francisco is 5-1 in its last six games.
— Giants are 32-22 at home.
— Giants are 8-2 in last 10 home series openers.
— under 9-4 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 25-108
— record in first 5 innings: 44-48-16
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7-9-x

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Umpires
— Chi-Cin- Home favorites are 10-4 in Hoye games.
— Atl-Milw- Road underdogs are 10-9 in Barrett games.
— Wsh-Ariz- Favorites are 11-8 in Fairchild games.

— Tor-Balt- Under is 8-5 in Parra games
— Clev-Det- Home underdogs are 4-3 in Morales games.
— Sea-B0s- Over is 13-7 in Visconti games.
— KC-CWS- Over is 10-5 in Wegner games.

— NYY-Phil- Under is 9-7 in Barber games
— Minn-NY- Road underdogs are 10-8 in Miller games
— Tex-StL- Home favorites are 12-4 in Mackay games.
— Pitt-Hst- Jones is a rookie ump; no trends yet.

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Trend: Over the total is 14-1 (93.3%, +13.00 units) since 2019 in SEA-BOS head-to-head games in Boston
– The ROI on this trend is 86.7%
System Matches: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 10)

Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (7-29, -22.13 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+142 at MIA)

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(901) CHICAGO-NL (51-57) at (902) CINCINNATI (51-55)
Trend: Under the total is 7-2 in the last nine head-to-head meetings in Cincinnati
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 9)

(903) ATLANTA (56-49) at (904) MILWAUKEE (61-45)
Trend: ATL is 11-5 in the last 16 head-to-head meetings vs. MIL
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (+105 at MIL)

(905) WASHINGTON (49-58) at (906) ARIZONA (56-51)
Trend: AZ not as good vs. LH starters (17-21, -9.00 units)
System Match: FADE ARIZONA (-180 vs WSH)

(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-44) at (908) SAN DIEGO (57-51)
Trend: Under the total is 3-0 in the head-to-head series at SD this season
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 7.5)

(909) CLEVELAND (64-42) at (910) DETROIT (52-56)
Trend: Over the total is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings in Detroit
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)

(911) TORONTO (50-57) at (912) BALTIMORE (63-44)
Trend: TOR trending Over vs. divisional teams (23-10 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

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(915) KANSAS CITY (58-49) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (27-82)
Trend: CWS awful vs. RH starters (20-68, -40.32 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+164 vs KC)

(917) NEW YORK-AL (63-45) at (918) PHILADELPHIA (65-41)
Trend: NYY is 14-4 this season as a ROAD underdog
System Match: PLAY NY YANKEES (+100 at PHI)

(919) MIAMI (39-67) at (920) TAMPA BAY (54-52)
Trend: MIA awful vs. LH starters (7-29, -22.13 units)
System Match: FADE MIAMI (+142 at MIA)

(921) MINNESOTA (58-47) at (922) NEW YORK-NL (56-50)
Trend: NYM slight Over vs. AL teams (14-8 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)

(923) TEXAS (52-55) at (924) ST LOUIS (54-52)
Trend: STL is pretty good as home underdog this season (10-6 record)
System Match: CONSIDER PLAYING ST LOUIS (+100 vs TEX)

(929) OAKLAND (44-64) at (930) SAN FRANCISCO (53-55)
Trend: SF not as good vs. LH starters (13-20, -10.44 units)
System Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-205 vs OAK)

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(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-44) at (908) SAN DIEGO (57-51)
Trend: Tyler Glasnow is just 5-9 (-7.00 units) as a short ROAD favorite (in line range of -115 to -140) in the last five seasons
System Match: FADE LA DODGERS (-135 at SD)

(909) CLEVELAND (64-42) at (910) DETROIT (52-56)
Trend: CLE is 0-3 (-5.28 units) against divisional opponents with starter Gavin Williams this season
System Match: CONSIDER FADING CLEVELAND (-162 at DET)

(923) TEXAS (52-55) at (924) ST LOUIS (54-52)
Trend: Max Scherzer is 36-15 (+14.57 units) on the ROAD vs NL teams in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY TEXAS (-120 at STL)

Trend: Lance Lynn is 12-2 (+9.70 units) at home within line range of +100 to -130 in the last five seasons
System Match: PLAY ST LOUIS (+100 vs. TEX)

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