Luciano Darderi vs. Sebastian Baez – Hamburg

Baez lost all three of his grass-court matches this year, so he should be more excited than anyone about returning to clay. Over the last 52 weeks, nobody has won more clay-court matches than Baez. His ability to hit with heavy spin, construct points and defend the baseline makes him a really tough player to defeat. That propensity for grinding out wins is what has made him successful against Darderi in the past. Baez is 2-1 in three career meetings between these two, and the two wins were straight-set victories.

Darderi is yet another clay-court specialist, but he’s just not quite as good as Baez on the surface. The reason for that is that Darderi does have a bit of a bigger game, as he can hit for power with his serve and forehand. But with that power comes the ability to rack up unforced errors, and Baez is as good as anyone when it comes to extracting those out of opponents.

Darderi can beat Baez and has proven that before. But it would take a near-perfect effort for him to do so. The most likely scenario is that Baez will find a way through by winning ugly.

Bet: Baez ML (-150)

Astra Sharma vs. Karolina Muchova – Palermo
Rafael Nadal vs. Mariano Navone – Bastad

Muchova was one of the stories of the 2023 season, but she has struggled to stay healthy in 2024. Muchova has played only six tour-level matches, and she hasn’t really looked like herself in many of them. In this tournament alone, Muchova was pushed by qualifier Katarzyna Kawa in the opening round, nearly losing a first-set tiebreaker to her. Muchova then needed three sets to beat world No. 197 Noma Noha Akugue in the second round. That’s why I’m throwing Sharma +5.5 games into a two-leg parlay. Sharma has been looking really sharp at this tournament, as she earned a straight-set win over Anna Blinkova and then edged out Ajla Tomjlanovic in a three-set match. Those are two really strong opponents, so Sharma’s game should be ready for Muchova. Of course, the Czech should find a way to advance here, but I don’t think that’s a given. And I’d simply be stunned if she wins this match by six or more games.

For the second leg of this parlay, I’m playing Nadal to beat Navone. I have backed Navone a ton this year. He’s a fantastic clay-court competitor and it’s nice to see him with a top-40 ranking next to his name. However, Navone is going to have his work cut out for him against Nadal. The Spaniard is starting to play some really solid tennis, and I’m just not sure I see him losing to this type of player. Navone is a good baseline player, capable of extending rallies but also playing aggressive tennis. However, I’m not sure he hits a heavy enough ball to make Nadal uncomfortable from the baseline. The Nadal forehand will be the biggest weapon on the court in this match, and I’m not sure Navone’s ability to return will translate here. Navone breaks frequently on clay because he gets balls back and resets the point. But Nadal is capable of quickly giving himself an edge in rallies. All in all, I just think Nadal is a little too strong for Navone. And Navone might be great in the point construction department, but that won’t be an advantage he’ll have against the King of Clay.

PARLAY: Sharma +5.5 Games + Nadal ML (-101 – 1.5 units)