3:45 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants (-125, 7.5)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Giants (45-48) took the opener 4-3, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. Then the Blue Jays (42-50) bounced back with a 10-6 win yesterday, cashing as +135 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Kevin Gausman (6-8, 4.64 ERA) and the Giants counter with fellow righty Jordan Hicks (4-5, 3.47 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -115 home favorite and Toronto a +105 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Giants laying short chalk at home, steaming San Francisco up from -115 to -125. The Giants are receiving 54% of moneyline bets and 57% of moneyline dollars, signaling slight public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 10-cent steam move in their favor. San Francisco has the superior offense, hitting .244 with 94 homers and 412 runs scored compared to Toronto hitting .235 with 82 homers and 372 runs scored. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 304-193 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the favorite is 190-129 (60%) with a 1% ROI. The Giants have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is favored to win. The Blue Jays are just 2-5 in Gausman’s last seven starts. Hicks has a 3.12 ERA at home compared to 3.89 on the road. San Francisco is 26-20 at home. Toronto is 21-26 on the road.

9:40 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves (-115, 8) at Arizona Diamondbacks

This is the final game of a four-game series. The Braves (51-40) took the first two games, winning 5-4 in extra innings as -195 road favorites and then winning again 6-2 as -115 road favorites. Then the Diamondbacks (46-47) clawed back with a 7-5 win yesterday, cashing as -115 home favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Braves start lefty Max Fried (7-4, 3.18 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to righty Brandon Pfaadt (3-6, 4.19 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -145 road favorite and Arizona a +130 home dog. The public is laying the chalk with the Braves, who have the better record. However, despite receiving 76% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Atlanta fall from -145 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Arizona, with pros grabbing the Snakes at plus money and causing the line to move in their favor (+130 to +100) despite being the unpopular side. The Diamondbacks have the superior offense, hitting .253 with 457 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .243 with 395 runs scored. Arizona is 5-2 in Pfaadt’s last seven starts. He has an ERA of 3.47 at home compared to 4.81 on the road. The Diamondbacks are 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .277. The Braves are 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .239. Arizona is hitting .280 against lefties this season, 2nd-best in MLB.

You convinced me on AZ
Thanks Sir