8 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (-2, 30.5) vs Chicago Bears

The Texans went 10-7 last season, winning the AFC South and beating the Browns 45-14 in the Wild Card round before falling to the Ravens 34-10 in the Divisional round. Houston’s win total for this season is 9.5 with the over juiced to -140. Meanwhile, the Bears went 7-10 last season, finishing tied for last in the NFC North and missing the postseason. Chicago’s win total for this season is 8.5 with the over juiced to -165.

Tonight’s Hall of Fame Game will be played at Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio.

This line opened with the Bears listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. We’ve since seen this line move away from Chicago (-1.5 to +2) and toward Houston (+1.5 to -2), signaling sharp “dog to favorite” line movement on the Texans. It’s also important to note that the Texans moved from -1.5 to -2 today, indicating late “gameday steam” in their favor. The Texans are receiving 65% of spread bets and 74% of spread dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy smart money in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.

Those looking to follow the sharp action but also protect themselves in what might be a close game could elect to play Houston on the moneyline at -135, especially in a game littered with backups, most notably second or third string kickers who could miss extra points and have a major effect on the final score. Historically, moneyline chalk has proven to be a smart bet in this situation. Hall of Fame Game favorites are 12-5 (71%) straight up with an 18% ROI over the past 20 seasons, with three games being cancelled due to field conditions, the lockout and Covid.

The Texans may also have an edge when it comes to the more experienced quarterback depth chart. Both starting quarterbacks (C.J. Stroud and Caleb Williams) are expected to sit this game out, along with a plethora of other starters on both sides. As a a result, the backups become that much more important. Houston is likely to play veteran QBs David Mills, Case Keenum and Tim Boyle while Chicago will feature younger, less experienced signal callers in Tyson Bagent, Brett Rypien and rookie Austin Reed.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen the line fall from 33 to 30.5. From last night to today, the total dipped from 31.5 to 30.5. This downward movement is especially notable because the public is sweating the over (59% of bets), yet the total fell. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy reverse line movement on the under, as pros seem to be banking on a lower scoring game. The under is receiving 41% of bets and 44% of dollars, a sharp contrarian bet split. Hall of Fame Game unders are 9-8 (53%) with a 5% ROI over the past 20 seasons, however the last two games have gone over.

The forecast calls for mid 80s with slight 5 MPH winds and possibly some storm clouds and showers later in the evening.