The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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UFL Week 5 Lagniappe
Stallions (-7.5) at Roughnecks
Saturday, 7 PM ET on FOX
Stallions: -395 // 4-0 SU // 3-1 ATS // O/U 1-3
Roughnecks: +310 // 1-3 SU // 2-2 ATS // O/U 2-2
Total: 42.5 (OV -110, UN -110)
You’re in luck — Because of the Stallions lackluster performance last week, they’re still available +140 to win a 3rd straight spring football championship. This number in my opinion is only going to shrink as the season goes on. That paired with Houston beating Arlington straight up last week is also giving us a slightly lighter spread in Week 5 than we would’ve had otherwise so it’s time to pounce!
The Stallions are the lone undefeated team in the UFL at 4-0 this season, 3-1 ATS. They’ve won 11-straight dating back to last season and I think they win (potentially by double digits) and cover again this week.
A big reason for my confidence level? Adrian Martinez is back under center as the Stallions QB1. Based on the last couple weeks, it looks like Skip Holtz is moving away from the 2QB system in-game & instead giving both Martinez and Matt Corral their own respective games in rotation.
Birmingham had to work for a win last week against DC with Corral starting, but still finished the job with a W complements of a 46-yd FG (shout out UFL kickers btw who continue to deliver this season). While Corral did make some big plays, I think if Martinez was the guy Birmingham would’ve won at margin to cover the big number.
Holtz has heard all the arguments about why he shouldn’t play 2 QBs but he doesn’t care & is sticking to his guns getting both players game tape for the next level.
In Martinez’s last time out against Memphis, he posted nearly 400 yds of total offense and 3TDs. He’s also the 2nd leading rusher in the league right now despite playing just 2.5 games.
Even with both QBs in the rotation, Birmingham has had one of the top offenses in the league (369.8 total yds per game, 25 PPG). They also boast the top defensive unit, ranking #1 in Pts Allowed Per Game, Total Yds Allowed, Rush Yds Allowed, Sacks
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04-27-24 04:38 PM |
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