The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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9 p.m. ET: Baylor at TCU (-2.5, 148)
Baylor (19-8, ranked 11th) has lost two straight games and just fell to Houston 82-76 in overtime. On the other hand, TCU (19-8) has won three of their last four games and just crushed Cincinnati 74-57. This line opened with TCU listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Why is unranked TCU favored over 11th-ranked Baylor? If Baylor is the “better” team, why are they a dog getting points? If it looks too good to be true, or doesn’t make sense, there is usually a reason for it. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they’re rushing to the window to grab the points with trendy dog Baylor. However, despite Baylor receiving 65% of spread bets this line has remained frozen at TCU -2.5. This signals sharp liability on TCU, with pros reluctant to drop the number for fear of giving out a better price to contrarian TCU backers. TCU is only receiving 35% of spread bets, making them the top contrarian play of the day in the most heavily bet game of the night. TCU is receiving 35% of spread bets but 59% of spread dollars, further evidence of pros backing the home team in a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. TCU has the edge on defense, ranking 40th in defensive efficiency compared to 85th for Baylor. Ken Pom has TCU winning by one point (78-77), which means savvy bettors may prefer to play TCU on the moneyline (-145). TCU is receiving 31% of moneyline bets but 51% of moneyline dollars, indicating a sharp bet split on TCU to win the game straight up. TCU is 12-2 at home. Baylor is 3-4 on the road. Unranked home favorites vs ranked opponents are 26-14 (65%) straight up this season and 69-27 (72%) straight up since the start of last season. Home favorites are 55-17 (76%) straight up in Big 12 conference play this season.
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02-26-24 09:44 PM |
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