Florida Atlantic vs Kansas State (@ MSG)
— Florida Atlantic (34-3) ranked #17 by KenPom
— Tempo: #158
— Experience: #148
— Continuity: #24
— FAU won its last ten games.
— FAU gave up 80-86-74 points in its three losses.
— Owls have #13 eFG% defense, #26 eFG% offense
— Owls are 12-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— FAU is 8-1 against top 100 teams.
— FAU’s schedule, to this point: #118
— bench minutes: #14
— FAU’s best win: 62-55 over #7 Tennessee

— Kansas State (26-9) ranked #20 by KenPom
— Tempo: #43
— Experience: #30
— Continuity: #316
— K-State won seven of its last nine games.
— K-State allowed 76+ points in seven of its nine losses.
— PG Nowell had 20 points, 19 assists in Thursday’s win
— K-State played four starters 35:00+ in their OT win.
— Wildcats force turnovers 20.7% of time (#53)
— K-State’s schedule, to this point: #19
— bench minutes: #325
— K-State’s best win: 116-103 at #5 Texas.

— Last eight years, underdogs are 19-13 ATS in Elite 8 games.

Gonzaga vs UConn (@ T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas)
— Gonzaga (31-5) ranked #6 by KenPom
— Tempo: #39
— Experience: #43
— Continuity: #20
— Gonzaga won its last 12 games.
— Gonzaga played three starters 36:00+ in Thursday’s win.
— Since 2015, Zags are 2-2 in Elite 8 games.
— Zags are shooting 58.5% inside arc (#2), 38.3% on arc (#10)
— Gonzaga is 16-4 against top 100 teams.
— Gonzaga’s schedule, to this point: #48
— bench minutes: #313
— Gonzaga’s best win: 79-76 over #3 UCLA

— UConn (28-8) ranked #1 by KenPom
— Tempo: #211
— Experience: #115
— Continuity: #248
— UConn won 12 of its last 14 games.
— Huskies won its three NCAA games by 24-15-23 points.
— UConn is 1-5 in games decided by 6 or less points.
— UConn is in Elite 8 for first time since 2014; Kevin Ollie was coach.
— Huskies are 10-6 vs top 50 teams.
— UConn’s schedule, to this point: #29
— bench minutes: #221
— UConn’s best win: 82-67 over #2 Alabama

— Last eight years, underdogs are 19-13 ATS in Elite 8 games.

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT against the spread.
Play On - A favorite (CONNECTICUT) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games against opponent after beating the spread by 54 or more points total in their last ten games
(53-21 since 1997.) (71.6%, +29.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-4 -2.4 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT against the spread.
Play Against - An underdog (GONZAGA) - after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after beating the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games
(28-7 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +20.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-5 -1.5 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2 +1.8 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (GONZAGA) - in a game involving 2 very good teams - outscoring opponents by 8+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season
(26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-2 +1.8 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT on the first half line.
Play Against - Any team (GONZAGA) - after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more
(99-48 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.3%, +46.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (21-11 +8.9 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT on the first half line.
Play Against - Any team (GONZAGA) - after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less against opponent after a blowout win by 20 points or more
(94-46 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.1%, +43.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (24-15 +7.5 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (651) FLA ATLANTIC vs. (652) KANSAS ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (KANSAS ST) - after 2 or more consecutive overs, in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG)
(75-34 since 1997.) (68.8%, +37.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-0 +3 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (651) FLA ATLANTIC vs. (652) KANSAS ST
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Neutral court teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 (FLA ATLANTIC) - in a game involving two good offensive teams (74-78 PPG)
(312-190 since 1997.) (62.2%, +103 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (26-10 +15 units).

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT against the spread.
CONNECTICUT is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 82.9, OPPONENT 57.8 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT against the spread.
CONNECTICUT is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) after 3 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 83.1, OPPONENT 57.1 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT against the spread.
CONNECTICUT is 13-1 ATS (+11.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 84.3, OPPONENT 59 - (Rating = 5*

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (651) FLA ATLANTIC vs. (652) KANSAS ST
Favoring: FLA ATLANTIC against the spread.
FLA ATLANTIC is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) after 2 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was FLA ATLANTIC 81.8, OPPONENT 62.6 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT on the first half line.
CONNECTICUT is 9-0 (+9 Units) against the 1rst half line after 3 consecutive non-conference games this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 42.6, OPPONENT 26.6 - (Rating = 5*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (653) CONNECTICUT vs. (654) GONZAGA
Favoring: CONNECTICUT on the first half line.
CONNECTICUT is 13-1 (+11.9 Units) against the 1rst half line after a non-conference game this season.
The average score was CONNECTICUT 41.6, OPPONENT 26.3 - (Rating = 5*)
View Entire FoxSheet for this game.

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (651) FLA ATLANTIC vs. (652) KANSAS ST
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
KANSAS ST is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
The average score was KANSAS ST 38.7, OPPONENT 37.6 - (Rating = 4*)

Saturday, 03/25/2023 (651) FLA ATLANTIC vs. (652) KANSAS ST
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
KANSAS ST is 8-0 OVER (+8 Units) the 1rst half total in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% this season.
The average score was KANSAS ST 37.7, OPPONENT 39.4 - (Rating = 4*)

Kansas State-Florida Atlantic betting at
BetMGM

Kansas St open -1.5, no movement
▪️ 86% of bets, 87% of money on KSU

Total open 143.5, now 144.5
▪️ 57% of bets, 66% of money on Over

UConn-Gonzaga betting at BetMGM


UConn open +1.5, now -2.5
▪️ 67% of bets, 71% of money on UConn

Total open 153.5, no movement
▪️ 71% of bets, 80% of money on Over

Public teams in Elite 8 at BetMGM


+60% tickets

86% on K-State -1.5
67% on UConn -2.5
61% on Creighton -1.5

+60% money

87% on K-State -1.5
71% on UConn -2.5
61% on Miami +4.5

Public is all over No. 3 Kansas State -1.5 today (vs. 9-seed FAU).

Over 85% of bets, 80% of money on KSU -1.5 at multiple sportsbooks.

But the line is still -1.5

Elite Eight Round Trends
- Elite Eight favorites of 4 points or fewer have gone just 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS (0%) in their last eight games and are just 14-30-1 ATS (31.9%) since ’98. (Against Kansas St -1.5, Connecticut -2, Creighton -1.5)

- Elite Eight games have been decisive, with outright winners owning a stellar record of 57-5-2 ATS (91.9%) since ’06. (All outright winners)

- Cinderella teams, or those not from power conferences, have been good bets when they reach the Elite Eight round, 12-11 SU and 13-9-1 ATS (59.1%) since ’03, including 9-2-1 ATS as underdogs of 3 points or more. (Fla Atlantic 1.5, San Diego St 1.5, Gonzaga 2.5)

- Elite Eight #1-#3 seeds have struggled mightily against teams seeded #4 or worse, going 17-14 SU and 8-21-2 ATS (27.6%) since ’01. However, they were 3-0 SU and ATS last year. (Against Kansas St -1.5, Texas -4.5, Gonzaga 2.5)

- The Elite Eight round has easily been the best round to play OVER on totals, 85-61-2 (58.2%) since ’01. We could be witnessing a turn, however, as the last six Elite Eight games went UNDER. In games with lower totals of 143 or less, it has been 59 OVERS and 28 UNDERS, for 67.8%. (OVER 149.5 MIA-TEX, OVER 143.5 KSU-FAU, OVER 153.5 CON-GON, OVER 133.5 SDSU-CRE)

- In Elite Eight games between teams “both not supposed to be there,” or both seeded #3 or worse, the worse-seeded team has gone 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS (87.5%) since 2013. (Miami 4.5, Connecticut -2.5, Fla Atlantic 1.5)

Big 12
KANSAS ST (#3, EAST) vs. FLA ATLANTIC (#9-Conference USA)

TEXAS (#2, MIDWEST) vs. MIAMI (#5-ACC)

Trends

- Against mid-major teams in the NCAAs, Big 12 teams are on a 13-5 ATS (72.2%) surge. (Kansas St -1.5)

Big East
CONNECTICUT (#4, WEST) vs. GONZAGA (#3-West Coast)

CREIGHTON (#6, SOUTH) vs. SAN DIEGO ST (#5-Mountain West)

Trends

- Big East teams are on an 8-1 SU and ATS (88.9%) run against Mountain West teams in the tournament. (Creighton -1.5)

- Favorites are 28-14 ATS (66.7%) in the last 42 Big East NCAA tourney games. (Creighton -1.5, Connecticut -2.5)

- In NCAA tourney games between Big East programs and non-major conferences since ’15, favorites are on a 21-8 SU and ATS (72.4%) run. (Creighton -1.5, Connecticut -2.5)

Elite 8 betting at BetMGM


Most bet games
1. Kansas State-FAU
2. UConn-Gonzaga
3. Creighton-SDST
4. Texas-Miami

Most bet teams
1. K-State -1.5
2. UConn -2.5
3. Creighton -1.5
4. Miami +4.5

Most bet teams $
1. K-State -1.5
2. UConn -2.5
3. Creighton -1.5
4. Miami +4.5

One of Bet Labs’ top-rated NCAA Tournament college basketball systems has an opinion against the spread for Florida Atlantic vs. Kansas State on Saturday.

This 58% winning betting model has had a great pulse on Florida Atlantic games so far in the NCAA Tournament.

It won its prediction on FAU plus the points in the Round of 64 against Memphis as the Owls won outright.

The model then picked Fairleigh Dickinson to cover vs. Florida Atlantic in the Round of 32 — another winner against the spread.

Then, on Thursday, the system won its third prediction, calling Florida Atlantic against the spread over Tennessee.

Florida Atlantic or Kansas State?

One of the most important factors in the model’s pick is tempo, and how fast — or slow — a team plays.

Today, Bet Labs’ NCAA Tournament Slow Paced Dogs system suggests taking the FAU Owls against the spread.

This betting model plays on underdogs that play at a certain pace offensively — and the Owls fit the bill Saturday.

Updated Kansas State-Florida Atlantic betting at
BetMGM


Kansas St open -1.5, no movement
▪️ 82% of bets, 76% of money on KSU

Total open 143.5, no movement
▪️ 65% of bets, 72% of money on Over