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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, 03/25/2023 (551) BROOKLYN vs. (552) MIAMI
Favoring: BROOKLYN against the spread.
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 245 points or more
(57-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.0%, +35 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (21-8 +12.2 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (557) UTAH vs. (558) SACRAMENTO
Favoring: UTAH against the spread.
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SACRAMENTO) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 42 or more games, after a combined score of 245 points or more
(57-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.0%, +35 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (21-8 +12.2 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (559) NEW ORLEANS vs. (560) LA CLIPPERS
Favoring: NEW ORLEANS against the spread.
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LA CLIPPERS) - after a home game where both teams score 100 or more points, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team
(88-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.2%, +42.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (22-12 +8.8 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (551) BROOKLYN vs. (552) MIAMI
Favoring: BROOKLYN against the spread.
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a combined score of 245 points or more
(87-41 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.0%, +41.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (33-19 +12.1 units).
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03-25-23 05:45 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(41-7 since 1996.) (85.4%, +33.3 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3 +2.7 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(41-7 since 1996.) (85.4%, +33.3 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3 +2.7 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(29-4 since 1996.) (87.9%, +24.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1 +3.9 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(29-4 since 1996.) (87.9%, +24.6 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (5-1 +3.9 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (DENVER) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(33-7 since 1996.) (82.5%, +25.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3 +2.7 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off an road win scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(33-7 since 1996.) (82.5%, +25.3 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3 +2.7 units).
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03-25-23 05:46 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, 03/25/2023 (555) PHILADELPHIA vs. (556) PHOENIX
Favoring: PHOENIX on the first half line.
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) - off 3 or more consecutive road losses, on Saturday games
(41-12 since 1996.) (77.4%, +27.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1 +0.9 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (555) PHILADELPHIA vs. (556) PHOENIX
Favoring: PHOENIX on the first half line.
Play On - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
(61-26 since 1996.) (70.1%, +32.4 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (555) PHILADELPHIA vs. (556) PHOENIX
Favoring: PHOENIX on the first half line.
Play On - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (PHOENIX) - off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season
(52-21 since 1996.) (71.2%, +28.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-2 -0.2 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (559) NEW ORLEANS vs. (560) LA CLIPPERS
Favoring: LA CLIPPERS on the first half line.
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (NEW ORLEANS) - after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite
(33-10 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.7%, +22 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3 +2.7 units).
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03-25-23 05:48 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (DENVER) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), second half of the season
(54-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +38.6 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (12-0 +12 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (MILWAUKEE) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), second half of the season
(54-14 over the last 5 seasons.) (79.4%, +38.6 units. Rating=5*)
The situation's record this season is: (12-0 +12 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 111 (DENVER) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in March games
(56-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.7%, +34 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2 +5.8 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 111 (MILWAUKEE) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in March games
(56-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.7%, +34 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-2 +5.8 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (DENVER) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(97-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +48.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (28-14 +12.6 units).
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (MILWAUKEE) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(97-44 over the last 5 seasons.) (68.8%, +48.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (28-14 +12.6 units).
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03-25-23 05:52 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
MILWAUKEE is 13-0 UNDER (+13 Units) the 1rst half total in road games when playing on back-to-back days over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 49.9, OPPONENT 45.8 - (Rating = 5*)
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
MILWAUKEE is 11-0 UNDER (+11 Units) the 1rst half total after a combined score of 225 points or more this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 57.7, OPPONENT 50.4 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (553) MILWAUKEE vs. (554) DENVER
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
MILWAUKEE is 10-0 UNDER (+10 Units) the 1rst half total versus very good shooting teams - making >=48% of their shots - 2nd half of the season this season.
The average score was MILWAUKEE 56.1, OPPONENT 53 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (559) NEW ORLEANS vs. (560) LA CLIPPERS
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-3 UNDER (+15.7 Units) the 1rst half total in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 52.1, OPPONENT 53.7 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (559) NEW ORLEANS vs. (560) LA CLIPPERS
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
NEW ORLEANS is 28-8 UNDER (+19.2 Units) the 1rst half total versus the 1rst half line in road games this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 54.3, OPPONENT 54.8 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (559) NEW ORLEANS vs. (560) LA CLIPPERS
Favoring: Under on the first half line.
NEW ORLEANS is 27-8 UNDER (+18.2 Units) the 1rst half total in a road game where the first half total >= 111 this season.
The average score was NEW ORLEANS 54.5, OPPONENT 55.2 - (Rating = 4*)
Saturday, 03/25/2023 (551) BROOKLYN vs. (552) MIAMI
Favoring: Over on the first half line.
MIAMI is 31-10 OVER (+20 Units) the 1rst half total versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season.
The average score was MIAMI 57, OPPONENT 57.3 - (Rating = 4*)
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03-25-23 05:58 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Brooklyn Nets travel to Miami tonight looking to avoid their sixth straight loss. The Heat are going for their fifth win in their past six games.
This is an important game for both teams who are separated by just a half game in the Eastern Conference standings. The Heat already passed the Nets in the standings, a win tonight could give the Heat some cushion as they look to avoid the play-in.
There are only nine games left for the Nets as they look to close out what has been an up and down season both on and off the court. Brooklyn is currently seventh in the East and facing the prospect of hosting the No. 7 vs. No. 8 game in the NBA Play-In Tournament. (At one point the Nets were as high as the second second in the east, that must seem like years ago to Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn.)
Despite the turmoil and recent poor play the Nets will more than likely find themselves in the playoffs if they can stabilize. The Nets are 8-15 straight up since Feb. 1, only the Pistons, Spurs and Rockets have fewer wins in that span. What’s interesting is in spite of that poor record the Nets are 13-10 ATS in that time frame. Only the Kings, Celtics, Sixers and Knicks have more ATS wins in that period.
Public perception is causing the Nets to be undervalued at the betting window — they are losing the games, but covering the spread — so they have been profitable despite their struggles. On average Brooklyn is a 5.5 point underdog, which is right around their number tonight on South Beach.
Brooklyn’s current losing streak features a pair of losses to the Cavaliers, as well as losses vs. the Thunder, Kings, and Nuggets. To be fair all of those teams are in the playoff picture. Tonight the Nets face a Heat team they have beaten twice this season and I expect Brooklyn will be ready to compete with their backs getting closer to the wall.
There has been a lot of national discussion about the Nets’ tumultuous season, but through it all the Nets are a half game behind Miami in the standings, so what’s the Heat excuse?
It feels as if Miami should be a better team than their record says they are. Yes, the Heat are playing well now, but they have the fewest wins for any division leading team in the league, and it’s not even close. That’s concerning.
Just like the Nets, the Heat also have their backs to the wall. To their credit they have responded well recently mainly due to the play of Jimmy Butler. He has proven once and again that he can carry this team; if it wasn’t for him the Heat would likely be a lottery team.
Over the past four weeks the Heat are 8-6 straight up and 6-8 ATS. They have been pulling out games they need to win in order to move up the standings. Betting on them has been hit or miss, though. As favorites, the Miami Heat are 19-33-3 ATS (second-worst in the NBA) and as home favorites they are 11-22-2 ATS (worst in the NBA). Backing the Heat as favorites has been a losing bet all season.
Injuries will play a small part here: Brooklyn will be without Ben Simmons and Seth Curry, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin are questionable for Miami. But the key players on both sides are expected to play.
Brooklyn is 6-2 ATS in their past eight road games
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03-25-23 09:28 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Saturday night gives us a potential NBA Finals preview — though in name and jersey only.
The Philadelphia 76ers are rolling. They’ve won nine of their last 10 and are 37-13 since the start of December with a +6.5 Net Rating, both tops in the NBA. The Sixers are the East 3-seed right now, but still pushing hard with the 1-seed still in reach — and maybe a big individual award, too.
The Phoenix Suns are the favorites in the Western Conference, but not this version. The Suns got good news on Friday when word came out that Kevin Durant is expected back next week, but he’s still out for this one and so too is Deandre Ayton.
As Jim Turvey noted in his Friday Suns preview, Phoenix has stayed somewhat afloat without Durant, but missing him plus a second starter has left the Suns threadbare and struggling mightily.
There’s another reason this is a potential Finals preview in name only — it’s the dregs of March and both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Joel Embiid (calf) and James Harden (Achilles) were both listed as questionable on Friday and are a threat to sit any back-to-back. Harden ultimately sat Friday as Embiid played, so we’ll see if we get the opposite result Saturday night.
It goes without saying that the presence of Embiid and Harden — or potential lack thereof — drastically changes everything about this team.
The duo is worth around seven or eight points to the spread, so we can take our cue on what books expect from Philadelphia on the opening spread. If Phoenix is listed as a clear favorite even without Durant and Ayton, it likely means one or both of Embiid and Harden are expected to be out.
Philadelphia ranks top five in both Offensive and Defensive Rating on the season, and the 76ers — not the Nuggets, Kings or anyone else — lead the NBA in offense since the start of December.
Even if Embiid and Harden are sidelined, Philadelphia will find a way to score. Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have done well ramping up their usage in the absence of stars around them, and each one has a positive point differential even without Embiid and Harden on the court — a testament to this team’s defense and depth.
There’s one clear advantage the 76ers have, and that’s at the line. Philadelphia leads the league in free throws made and free throw percentage, and they’re second in attempt rate.
Phoenix ranks last defensively in free throws allowed. Of course, Harden, and especially Embiid, are responsible for a bulk of that advantage, but it could be trouble for the Suns if those two get to the line all night.
Devin Booker continues to roll through an incredible March.
He’s scoring 34.0 points per game with at least 28 in all but one of his 10 games through Thursday, with at least 32 in seven of them (70%). That sets a very high floor for Booker’s points prop, though books have adjusted his line accordingly.
It’s worth noting Booker has at least 36 points in four of Phoenix’s five wins during this stretch — he’s maxed out at 33 points in the five losses. With Durant and Ayton out, and with Chris Paul no longer a top scorer and the team lacking depth, this Suns offense goes as Devin Booker does.
If you like the Sixers to win, consider a Booker under. A Suns side would imply a Booker points over or even alternate over. That sets up an excellent correlated Same Game Parlay opportunity.
Landry Shamet also returned this week after a two-month absence. He scored 25 points in his first two games back and could be a pivot if you don’t want to play Booker. Shamet threes could also be a play. He’s attempted 12 treys in these first two games, with three makes in each.
The Suns have struggled mightily on the road this season, especially without Durant, but they’ve been much better at home. If one or both of Philadelphia’s stars sit, Phoenix will be favored and should get the win. That would shape up as a spot to parlay a Phoenix win with a Booker points over.
If Philadelphia does play its starters, you have to like them here, especially with the huge free-throw advantage and the Suns stuck with Bismack Biyombo defending Embiid in that scenario.
Philadelphia has 25 wins this season by double digits, and a full-strength effort would give them a good shot at another one against a short-handed Suns squad.
You’re going to have to wait for a clear injury report before you pick a side, and there’s enough uncertainty in the injury reports and late-season motivations that it’s probably not worth playing a traditional angle.
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03-26-23 12:04 AM |
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