3unit Denver 'OVER' 38

The Broncos number of expected wins opened at 7 1/2 and has dropped to 6 1/2. The schedule is just a killer. Catch this: In a six-week stretch with their bye week, the Broncos face Dallas, New England, San Diego, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. They also take on the NFC East with Washington, the Giants, Philly, and Dallas. Unfortunately for them, the two divisional teams they can beat at home, Oakland and Kansas City, they don't meet until weeks #14 and #16 when they will most likely be out of contention for anything and they lose to Oakland with a few bounces the right way. That’s 9 games where they will win NONE, in my opinion, maybe not yours. Breaking down the others:

GM 1 @Cincy will be a close game, say they lose 0-1
GM 2 beat Cleveland @home 1-1
GM 3 Oakland @Oakland a toss up say they win 2-1
GM 4,5,6 Loss to Dallas, San Diego, N.E. 2-4, BYE,
GM 7 Loss @Baltimore 2-5
GM 8 Loss @ home to Pittsburgh 2-6
GM 9 Loss @ Washington w/slight win 2-7 or 3-6
GM 10 Loss @ Home San Diego 2-8 or 3-7
GM 11 Loss @ Home Giants 2-9 or 3-8
GM 12 Win @ K.C. big toss up they are tuff at home 3-9 or 4-8
GM 13 Loss @ Indy 3-10 or 4-9
GM 14 Win @home Oakland toss up are they going to beat them twice 4-10 or 5-9
GM 15 Loss @ Philly 4-11 or 5-10
GM 16 Win @ home K.C. 5-11 or 6-10

There best is 6-9 beating Oakland & K.C. Twice. The 7 ½ Team wins is Under with ease, they split Oakland in my mind. K.C. is improved, that’s tuff. Cincy is improved, if they win that’s 7. That’s all they win but beating Oak & K.C. Twice. Wash was split but @Wash it goes more to Wash so they could be worse. ((5-11 or 6-10)) is there reality outcome, im leaning towards 5-11. Im putting some money on the Under 7.5 wins for there season.

But in regards to tonight, I like this game 'OVER' the total. Through two weeks of NFL preseason, Denver is dead last allowing opposing quarterbacks a rating of 117.6. Last year they were 28th overall in total defense. They do not have an interception yet this August. Kyle Orton and the Denver offense has moved the ball very efficiently the last two weekends. Their problem has been turnovers. Orton has thrown four picks and it was embarrassing in week #1 when he fired three of them in the first quarter at San Francisco. Denver out-gained their two opponents so far but six turnovers have killed their chances of scoring a TD.

For EX: Chicago's defense looked sensational last week against the Giants, but they were motivated playing one of the conference's elite teams at home and following an embarrassing effort the previous week at Buffalo allowing 27 points. But in general, I always like playing 'OVER' totals in the 30's involving an NFC/AFC matchup and in particular when the two teams do not meet in the regular season because they arent worried about showing some of their better plays. The Bears and Bills produced 47 points.

Those type of NFC/AFC meetings this week have produced a 6-3 'OVER' record and note the Colts and Lions stayed 'UNDER' because the Lions were stopped twice inside the Indy 5-yard line. FYI: Five of those six 'OVERS' shattered the totals with 50+ points scored and the St. Louis/Cincinnati meeting produced 45. Curiously the Bears played two AFC road games last year and there were 42 points at Indy and 55 points scored against Houston. Certainly Jay Cutler wants to make a good showing against his former team and should be motivated. In the first two games the Broncos have attempted 70 passes compared to 54 rushing attempts. The Bears have thrown it 63 times compared to 51 rushes. This also leads me to believe we will see the ball in the air quite a bit tonight, helpful for a total in the 30's.

Road teams off a 10-point or more home victory with a preseason winning percentage between 45 and 55 percent, are 22-6 'OVER' in their last 28 games. Without question, the Bears are the better team on paper and a slight underdog. But historically, NFC teams have struggled at Invesco Field and Mile High Stadium over the years. Plus Chicago is not exactly a road warrior. The Bears were 3-5 in the regular season on the road the last two years and 1-2 in their last three preseason road games. Plus I'm concerned with them taking Denver lightly here after the satisfying home win over the Giants. We saw Indianapolis beat Philly at home two weeks ago and then lose to the Lions yesterday! Just the 'OVER' tonight.

When I was looking at Denver, I noticed they, Minnesota & St. Louis are the only teams that open with 3 opponents with losing records last year. Seattle, Cincinnati & Arizona open with 2. I'm sure the Broncos are probably still shell-shocked from the collapse last year, but they are getting an opportunity right out of the gate to change their misfortune.

I wouldn't count those games against Dallas, NYG or San Diego as losses yet. None of those teams have a great history in Denver and the season total change is probably a reaction to the Brandon Marshall situation. If the Broncos solve that problem quickly, they will be all right.


Duckman

On it as well...GL

Good luck.

like the over number as well, bol

Riding along gang.

choo-choo!!!

3unit Denver Over 38 WINNER






18-9-2 67% +30units Overall

Nice call Sir.

I live in vegas, you can still get it at seven at the orleans but its a -200 , but you only lose if they are .500 or better, hard to see that happening...