The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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MrDoug
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2005
Posts: 325
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One of the Best Systems this MLB Season
After starting the season playing solid baseball, the Baltimore Orioles have found the road to continued success unkind. In particular, the road that has them leaving Baltimore to encounter other big league baseball teams. The Orioles are in the midst of a 10-day, 10-game road trip and thus far have managed one win in their first five tries. On the season, Baltimore is 6-11 (-3.4 units) in the visiting uniforms and have managed to score 3.5 runs per games in this role.
Baltimore (16-17, +1.4 units) has lost a season-high four straight, batting .214 (27-for-126) while scoring nine runs during that span. The defeat dropped the Orioles under .500 for the first time since a season-opening loss to Tampa Bay. Tuesday’s loss was the sixth straight game Baltimore has played decided by one or two runs. “Everybody in baseball goes through it and we’re going through it right now,” manager Dave Trembley said. “We’re in every game. It just seems like things aren’t going our way. Obviously you make your own fortune but I’ve got no problem with the approach.”
While talking about a fortune, this afternoon’s series ending matinee, could bring the sharp better a small fortune based on history. Four factors have come together to give us a Super Situation for potential wager. The first aspect is the O’s poor hitting, collectively they are batting .243 as a team. Next, Baltimore is facing a decent pitcher in Oakland’s Joe Blanton, who despite 2-5 record has better than average ERA of 3.88. His mound opponent is also important, being Jeremy Guthrie (1-3, 4.06) who has allowed seven long balls in seven starts for the Orioles. Finally, Baltimore is listed as +130 road dogs to complete this outstanding system.
Play Against road underdogs like Baltimore, with a money line of +125 to +175, who are below average hitting team (AVG <=.265), against a good starting pitcher like Blanton (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher (Guthrie) who gives up one or more home runs a start.
The rational for the play is really quite simple. The Birds aren’t hitting and are not likely to find their stroke against a good starting pitcher. Blend this thought with the O’s starter Guthrie, who has shown he can be taken yard in 2008.
This system has delivered staggering results with 37-3, 92.5 percent record, which has been good for +32.1 units over the last five seasons. As amazing as these numbers are, they actually improve to 23-1, 95.8 percent the last three years, including 3-0 in 2008. While there is no way to predict the exact outcome, the results have been rather one-sided with Play Against teams losing by better than two runs a game, opening up possibility for run line players to take advantage of.
Grab your action soon if this makes sense to you, since first pitch is at 3:35 Eastern.
Good Luck,
SF Doug
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05-07-08 04:55 PM |
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