Eva Lys vs. Nadia Podoroska – Budapest

Podoroska is the 71st-ranked player in the world, but she finds herself as an underdog against the world No. 129. That might seem a little odd, but Podoroska has also lost each of her last four matches. One of those was an early loss to qualifier Diana Martynov in the Contrexeville Challenger. Podoroska is really just in a bad way right now, so she’s ripe for a loss at any moment. Well, Lys lost her opening-round match against Clara Burel at Wimbledon, but she had won seven of her previous 10 matches before that. Sure, those matches came at all different levels, but Lys has been playing some good tennis and has real confidence. With that in mind, I think she can deal Podoroska another loss. Lys is a player that moves well and takes the ball very early. She makes quick decisions and plays with purpose. Podoroska isn’t doing that right now. Lys just needs to keep it together on her serve. She can struggle with the ball on her racquet. That’s why I’m not going any bigger than a unit on this.

Bet: Lys ML (-125)

Gustavo Heide vs. Stefano Napolitano – Gstaad

Heide went through qualifying at this event and looked good in doing so. He earned a straight-set win over Mika Brunold and then edged out Filip Misolic in a three-set match. Heide has also played a very clay-heavy schedule in recent months, while Napolitano’s last seven matches were all played on grass. I like to find that type of difference in a recent schedule when looking for early-round plays. But I also just like that Heide is a player with weaponry all over the court. Napolitano has a good serve, fights hard throughout matches and can be quite clever. But Heide has a big serve and can punish the ball from both the forehand and backhand wings. I ultimately think his power is going to make life difficult on Napolitano. And Heide has been doing solid work as a returner recently, so I can see him putting enough pressure on Napolitano to eventually earn a few breaks.

Bet: Heide ML (-135 – 1.5 units)

Lorenzo Sonego vs. Luciano Darderi – Hamburg

This is a play that is a little juicier than I would have liked, but I just can’t help myself here. Sonego is in the middle of a nightmare season, as he’s just 11-20 since the start of 2024. That 35.5% winning percentage is the lowest he has had in any of his full seasons on the ATP Tour. And Sonego’s miserable return game has been a big part of his struggles. This year, Sonego’s break percentage is down at 10.9%. That’s an absolutely pitiful number and that’s what makes it hard not to love Darderi here. Darderi’s hold percentage is up at 80.1% on the season, and he’s also just 20-13 in his tour-level matches this year. This is a guy that is playing some good tennis, and he’s at his best on clay. In his ATP career, Darderi is 19-10 on the dirt. He’s also 18-9 on the surface over the last 52 weeks.

Darderi also happened to win a Challenger-level event on clay in Perugia in June. That was an event with a pretty good field. Overall, these are just two players heading in opposite directions. Sonego should eventually figure things out, as he does have a pretty electric playing style. He can go big on his serve and can really rip forehands. But I just don’t see him putting it all together against this caliber of opponent right now.

Bet: Darderi ML (-165)

Mackenzie McDonald vs. Rinky Hijikata – Newport

I really enjoy watching Hijikata and I believe he’s a player with the ability to excel on grass. However, McDonald was a good grass-court player before some disappointing results this season. And I’m not trying to put too much weight into those losses because McDonald returned from a lengthy injury layoff in May. At his peak, McDonald is one of the fastest players on tour, can hit flat strokes from the baseline and knows when to come to the net to put points away. That gives him a little more overall game than Hijikata. And we are getting further and further away from that McDonald injury, so he should be feeling pretty good in Newport. In fact, McDonald played a really good match against Emil Ruusuvuori at Wimbledon, losing a very tight five setter. That was a good performance for McDonald, as Ruusuvuori ended up having a good tournament. McDonald has also had a full two weeks to continue working on his body and I think that should do wonders for him.

I know Hijikata has had a slight edge in this head-to-head series, and he also won when the two met on grass in ‘s-Hertogenbosch last year. But it’s a really small sample size and it’s best not to factor that in too much. If McDonald comes close to bringing his best level, he should win this one.

Bet: Mcdonald ML (-147)