Arthur Fils vs. Alex De Minaur

De Minaur has barely played any tennis in this tournament. The Australian needed three hours and eight minutes to beat James Duckworth in the first round, but his second-round win over Jaume Munar took only two hours and four minutes. Lucas Pouille then withdrew from the tournament before his third-round match against De Minaur. Meanwhile, Fils has been on the court for nine hours in this event, and his win over Roman Safiullin in his last match was especially grueling. One would think that the difference in time on court should play a role in deciding the outcome of this match. However, I’d be surprised if Fils doesn’t win a set before De Minaur ultimately runs away with it.

De Minaur has done a lot of work to become a more aggressive player, but he’s still a counter-puncher at heart. Meanwhile, Fils is a player with a big serve and the ability to really rip shots from the forehand side. He has his foot on the gas at all times, and he also has the athleticism required to steal points in longer rallies. With that in mind, I think he’s going to be able to make De Minaur uncomfortable throughout this match. So, let’s just hope both of these guys win sets and avoid the injury bug.

Bet: Over 3.5 Sets (-141 – 1.5 units)

Taylor Fritz vs. Alexander Zverev

I was expecting Alejandro Tabilo to give Fritz some trouble last match, but the American has just been on a tear. With Fritz having won a title in Eastbourne last week, he has now won nine of the 10 matches he has played on grass this year. And overall, this is a surface that brings out the best in him. Fritz is obviously one of the toughest players in the world to break, but he’s also a better baseliner than he is given credit for. And I was really impressed with the way he returned against Tabilo. He was getting his racquet on everything the Chilean was throwing at him, and that should serve him well in this meeting with Zverev.

Zverev has also played some good tennis on grass this year, and he hasn’t yet dropped a set in this tournament. However, Zverev is very beatable on this surface, as he prefers higher balls in baseline exchanges and he doesn’t get a lot of those here. Zverev just hasn’t played anybody talented enough to take advantage of that. Well, Fritz definitely fits the bill there. He hits powerful, flat shots from the baseline, and I think that’s going to frustrate Zverev quite a bit.

I also thought Fritz played pretty well in a straight-set loss to Zverev in Madrid a couple of months ago. And those were conditions that really favored Zverev. Now that we’re on a court that favors Fritz, I’m taking a shot on the American to pull off the upset.

Bet: Fritz ML (+164)

Holger Rune vs. Novak Djokovic

It’s extremely impressive that Djokovic has won three matches after having had knee surgery three weeks ago. However, Djokovic hasn’t played his best tennis, as his matches against Jacob Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin were both rather close. If the 24-time Grand Slam champion doesn’t snap out of it and play close to his best level, he’s going to be out of here pretty soon. And I really don’t see any reason Rune can’t be the one to eliminate him.

Rune has actually won two of the five matches that he and Djokovic have played, and he has never lost in straight sets against the seven-time Wimbledon champion. Rune, who is arguably the most confident player on the ATP Tour, always believes in his ability to win matches. And having that mentality against Djokovic is important. You’ll often see players go out there and beat themselves because they don’t believe they can beat him.

Rune is also just a tough on-court matchup for this version of Djokovic. Rune has the ability to blast serves, but he’s also good from the baseline and has a ton of variety. That said, he should be able to hold his own no matter what type of match this ends up being. It’s also just hard to ignore that Djokovic’s serve is still a work in progress. The Serbian’s hold percentage is the lowest it has been since 2010, and he’s going to run into some trouble if he’s not consistently hitting his spots here.

I just don’t think there’s much that separates these players right now, so I’m taking the games and sprinkling the moneyline. And I feel like this could be Rune’s first big moment at a Grand Slam. He has had success at the Masters 1000 level, but he has never been to the semifinals of a major. Well, if he wins this match, he’ll like his chances in the quarterfinals.

Bet: Rune +4.5 Games (-115 – 1.5 units) + Rune ML (+250 – 0.5 units)