Paula Badosa vs. Donna Vekic

This is going to be an exciting matchup, as Badosa is playing like her former top-five self and Vekic is a very good grass-court performer. However, it really feels like this match will be on Badosa’s racquet. Both of these players like to play aggressive tennis from the baseline, but Badosa’s power is effortless from back there. So, she won’t be putting herself at risk of wild misses by hitting with pace. If Vekic wants to match Badosa’s power, she might see an uptick in her unforced errors count. Badosa is also the better returner between these two players, which is hard to ignore when talking about two players that are rather similar when it comes to serving.

Overall, this just feels like a great price for a former world No. 2 that finally looks healthy and confident. Badosa’s performance against Daria Kasatkina was as impressive as any I have seen on the women’s side at Wimbledon. I trust the Spaniard to back it up.

Bet: Badosa ML (-118 – 1.5 units)

Ugo Humbert vs. Carlos Alcaraz

Alcaraz was able to dig deep and fight off elimination against Frances Tiafoe. The American really had Alcaraz on the ropes, as it was 0-30 on the Spaniard’s serve at 4-4 in the fourth set. Alcaraz ultimately ended up coming up with some big serves and extending the match by winning a fourth-set tiebreaker. From there, Alcaraz played some flawless tennis to convincingly win the fifth set. If that version of Alcaraz shows up again, the Spaniard might be looking at back-to-back Wimbledon titles. But he has just been sloppy for so much of this tournament, and you can really say the same about the entirety of the 2024 season. With that in mind, I find it hard to believe he’ll beat Humbert in straight sets. Humbert is a big server that has a lot of power from the baseline. That’s exactly the type of player that can give Alcaraz trouble on a fast surface. Alcaraz can struggle when he’s being rushed.

I’m not sure Humbert will be able to steal this match or anything, but he’s a good enough server to put his head down and work himself deep in sets. And if he does that a few times, I trust him to break through and win one of them.

Bet: Humbert +2.5 Sets (-128 – 1.5 units)

Ben Shelton vs. Jannik Sinner

It’s no secret that I’m not as high on Shelton as others, but there aren’t many situations in which I’d pass up backing him to win a single set at plus-money odds in a major. Sinner is the best player in the world and has a game perfectly suited for grass, but Shelton is still one of the best servers on the planet. And it just doesn’t take much for guys like that to sneak sets in conditions like these. Honestly, this match could look a lot like the one Sinner played against Matteo Berrettini. Sinner was in control for most of that match, but Berrettini gave himself chances by doing his job with the ball on his racquet. Shelton should be able to do the same, even though he has played a lot of tennis this week.

Bet: Shelton +2.5 Sets (+125)

Emma Navarro vs. Coco Gauff

Gauff has looked absolutely tremendous early in this tournament, but I’m still not a big believer in her game on much faster surfaces. At some point, somebody is going to have the rally tolerance required to hang with Gauff in longer points and ultimately exploit her lack of finishing power on the forehand side. And there’s really no reason that can’t be Navarro. This season, Navarro is an impressive 33-14. There really aren’t many players on the planet that are playing better than her, and it really feels like the American rarely comes out flat. That said, I trust her to play some good tennis, even on this big of a stage. And I like her playing style in a match like this.

Navarro played some great tennis in Bad Homburg before heading over to Wimbledon, and I expect her to be a real factor on this surface for a very long time. Navarro has the ability to extend points, she has quick, compact motions from both wings and she knows how to play at the net. Overall, I’d say that Navarro has a great understanding of what she wants to do on a tennis court, and I think Gauff sometimes takes some time to figure it out. That said, I think Navarro is going to win a set in this match, and I can see her pouncing and winning the first. But I also think Navarro is going to have her chances to win this one. You just never know when Gauff’s forehand is going to break down, and Navarro also has the returning ability to frustrate the world No. 2. Navarro has also come a long way since their match at the ASB Classic in January.

Bet: Navarro +1.5 Sets (+102 – 1.5 units) + Navarro ML (+300 – 0.5 units)