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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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EURO 2024 Quarters
Spain vs. Germany
Friday, 12:00 p.m. ET
The European Championship quarterfinals kick off with a cracker on Friday afternoon. It is a clash between arguably the two most eye-catching sides of the tournament so far and the only two nations to have previously lifted the trophy three times.
Both sides head to Stuttgart defending unbeaten records, with Spain the only team to have won all four of their games in Germany. They cruised into the last eight with a 4-1 hammering of a Georgia side that had already achieved the unthinkable of progressing to the knockout stages.
Luis de la Fuente’s men conceded their first goal of Euro 2024 in that Round of 16 clash. It came as a result of a cross bouncing in off Robin Le Normand, so no opposition player has scored against them. They have conceded more than once in just one of their last 14 competitive internationals and none of the last 12, keeping a clean sheet in seven of those.
Germany was less convincing in beating Denmark. They needed a slice of good fortune but still managed a win to nil. The return of Jonathan Tah back from suspension will provide a huge boost, as he will partner with Antonio Rüdiger.
Depending on results elsewhere, there is every chance the winners of this match will become favorites to win the tournament. The outcome is tough to predict, but at the prices, I favor Germany to progress at around -106. I am certain this will be a tight, cagey and competitive match.
Therefore, odds of -120 Under 2.5 goals looks like great value. It’s a bet that would have landed in six of the last seven meetings between the two nations.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: Under 2.50 goals at -120.
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07-05-24 05:08 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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Germany and Spain meet for a heavyweight clash at Euro 2024 with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
Germany dominated Denmark in their round of 16 match to set up this massive match with Spain. The tournament hosts have been incredibly dominant with Julian Naglesmann at the helm and look poised to make a deep run on home soil. He will have them set up in the best way possible against what has been the most impressive team of the Euros.
Spain routed Georgia 4-1 in what was their fourth straight win of the Euros. They have been the best team so far this tournament, winning all three of their matches by a combined score of nine to one and are starting to look like the dominant Spain teams from the early 2010s. However, they have not played a team even close to the level of Germany since the 2022 World Cup, so this will be a massive test for Luis de la Fuente's side.
Spain have obviously looked outstanding throughout this tournament, but have they really played a team at the level of Germany and can they be successful at controlling a majority of the possession or give them problems when they try to build up?
Germany are likely going to sit in a 4-4-2 or 4-2-4 mid block trying to deny space through the middle. Spain have been fortunate to face three teams that sat fairly deep in Albania, Georgia and Italy, while the one team that actually played a mid to high block gave them some problems. Croatia did fall behind 3-0 quickly, so Spain dropped off and played more passively in the second half. What ended up happening was Croatia held 54% of the ball and created 2.1 expected goals.
That was the first time since the 2008 Euro Final that they hadn’t held more than 50% of the ball. You could write it off and say Spain were up big so they naturally ceded control or it can give you a glimpse into what Spain are like when they don’t have a stranglehold on the ball.
Spain are the best counter-pressing team in this tournament – there is no doubt about that. But what happens if someone is able to break that press? Croatia did it a few times and it led to transition breaks where they created their best chances. There also hasn’t been a lot of ball winning in this Spain side, as they have the fifth-lowest ground duel win rate in this tournament.
Germany have shown versatility in their attack throughout this tournament. They don’t need to beat teams by utilizing short passes through the middle. With Havertz and Musiala’s ability to drop deep and also move around the pitch pulling defenders out of position, they have played a lot of balls over the top of the last line of defense with a lot of success.
They have also proven that they can be a very successful direct counterattacking team. They have six fast break shots in this tournament so far, which is a really high number considering how passively all four teams they’ve played have been. Nobody has been able to exploit it yet, but Spain throughout qualifying were really vulnerable to long balls over the top. Germany without a doubt have the deep lying playmakers who can make those passes and the forwards to give Spain’s defense a lot of problems.
Germany have also shown themselves to be an elite out of possession side. They have only allowed 2.9 expected goals and only three shots with an xG rating over 0.20. The combination of Robert Andrich, Jonathan Tah and Antonio Rüdiger has made it incredibly difficult for teams to be successful at playing through the middle of getting anything from counterattacking opportunities.
These two played in the 2022 World Cup group stage and Germany outplayed Spain with a worse manager. That match ended 1-1 with Spain holding 64% possession, but Germany beat them on expected goals 1.3 to 0.6 and outshot them 11 to 7. That match closed with Spain as a slight +150 favorite.
We are now here at Euro 2024 at pretty much the exact same line as that World Cup. Are we really going to sit here and say Spain have gotten a lot better and Germany have gotten worse? Because the latter is not true. Germany have been way better under Naglesmann, so with home field advantage if like me you believe these two teams are equal, Germany should be +130, not an underdog.
Germany to Advance in Euro 2024 (+100
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07-05-24 05:11 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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France and Portugal meet once again at the Euros, but this time it's to decide who goes to the semifinals.
France were not able to score a goal from open play, but they did enough to get by Belgium. It hasn't been the most impressive of tournaments for France, who have drastically underperformed in front of net. With that being said, they haven't allowed a non-penalty goal, so their defense may just get them through to the semifinals.
Portugal are coming off back to back terrible performances against Georgia and Slovenia. The failed to score in both matches and the tactical set up under Roberto Martinez has been awful. They were in the easiest qualifying group and haven't played a team even close to the level of France under Martinez, so this could be a bad night for the Portuguese.
Roberto Martinez has done it again. He’s shown true unbelievable ability to take a team of incredibly talented players and set them up in the most unbalanced disjointed system possible.
The entire tournament, Portugal have not been able to play the ball through the middle, have funneled the ball out wide and tried to beat teams via crosses. Slovenia did not let them play through the middle at all and they are not going to be able to against France. They have completed 17 crosses into the penalty area, which is most of anyone in the tournament so far, but they have attempted 120 crosses, which is 29 more than anyone else.
The biggest aspect of this game is Portugal’s ability to defend in transition. France are going to be perfectly happy allowing them to control most of the possession and outside of Joao Pahlinha, there is no ball winning in the attack or in the midfield when Portugal lose the ball. Additionally, if they are going to start a 41-year old Pepe against the pace that France has, they are leaving themselves incredibly vulnerable at the back.
France have been completely unlucky to score a goal themselves from open play. They have now created 6.1 non-penalty expected goals and failed to score any on their own. Belgium set up very passively and sat deep, basically daring France to break them down, which is not the best scenario for the French. They did end up with 14 penalty box shots and an xThreat rating of 1.9, which is one their highest of the tournament.
What has not been talked about enough this tournament is how good France’s defense has been. Saliba and Upamecano have been shutting down opposing strikers, and Tchouaméni and Kante have been winning the ball at an incredibly high rate, so basically nobody has been able to play through the middle.
France have the highest ground duel win rate at 56%, which ignoring tactics has put them in the best positions possible to win every match. Through four matches, France have allowed 1.9 non-penalty expected goals, have allowed just four crosses to be completed into their penalty area and only two non-penalty shots with an xG rating over .20. With how inefficient Portugal have been in the final third, I do not see how they are going to create high quality chances against France’s defense.
It goes without saying, but Cristiano Ronaldo is really costing Portugal this tournament. Roberto Martinez is basing the entire attack around him when it's not only clear that he's way past his prime, but there are much better attackers that should be seeing more of the ball and getting more of a share of the shots.
Portugal created a measly 0.85 xG in regular time against Slovenia, have shown big time vulnerabilities defending in transition and are coming off an extra 30 minutes of match time, so France have the rest advantage.
If Portugal control a majority of the possession in this match, they are going to leave themselves exposed to transition breaks against the best counterattacking team in the world with one ball stopper in the midfield and a 41-year old Pepe on the back line.
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07-05-24 07:02 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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Portugal vs. France
Friday, 03:00 p.m. ET
Another quarterfinal tie that looks mouth-watering on paper. Sorry to be the party pooper, but I can’t see this being a thriller.
There was an expectation that this tournament would set goal-scoring records, and it started off looking that way, with 34 goals in the first round of matches at an average of 2.83. By the end of the group stages, that average had dropped to 2.25, exactly the same as in the Round of 16 ties.
Eight of the 12 first-group games cashed for Over 2.5 goals bettors; that number dropped to four in the second set of fixtures, while just two matches saw three or more goals on match day three. Of the eight Round of 16 clashes, five cashed on Under 2.5 goals, with the three that went over being the ones we expected.
I must back Under 2.25 goals here, meaning half our stake is on Under 2.5 and the other half on Under 2.0. If there are one or fewer goals, we get a full win. If there are two, we cash half our stake and get half refunded, and we only lose if there are three or more goals.
Portugal had the meanest defense in qualifying, conceding just two goals in their 10 fixtures and haven’t quite clicked in attack this tournament. Their tactics seem to be geared towards what Cristiano Ronaldo wants rather than what is best for the team.
Their captain has fired 20 shots at Euro 2024 and has yet to score, even missing a penalty in extra time of the 0-0 draw with Slovenia in the Round of 16. He is taking all the free kicks and shooting from some outrageous positions. His time is rapidly coming to an end, and the frustration is there for all to see.
Expect him to get no change from this miserly France defense, and William Saliba in particular, who is showing he is one of the best defenders on the planet right now. Didier Deschamps has seen his side keep five clean sheets in their last six internationals, with that strike being a twice-taken penalty by Poland in the final group game here.
They have been generally underwhelming in the tournament, though, and have scored just three goals—none of those in open play by one of their own players. Kylian Mbappé slotted home a penalty in that Poland game, and they beat both Austria and Belgium 1-0 courtesy of own goals.
These two nations can cancel each other out, as has been the case in four of their last five meetings—fixtures that have seen two 0-0 draws and two 1-0 wins for France.
Euro 2024 Best Bets: Under 2.25 goals at -136.
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07-05-24 07:32 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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After surviving their round of 16 match against Slovakia, England look to put in a better performance against Switzerland.
Jude Bellingham saved England, scoring an equalizer deep into stoppage time, and then Harry Kane gave England the lead in extra time, which saw them through to the quarterfinals. It has been a lackluster tournament so far for England offensively, as they've really struggled to create high quality chances despite the wealth of talent in their attack. Switzerland are going to be their toughest test yet, so they will have to improve if they want to get to the semifinals.
Switzerland impressively beat Italy 2-0 to get to the quarterfinals. Murat Yakin's side has been really good throughout the Euros and has proven themselves to be a worthy underdog. They are an experienced side and will not be afraid of the moment here against one of the Euro 2024 favorites.
It’s been terrible offensively for England in this tournament. Even playing from behind for 70 minutes, it was brutal watching England try to create high quality chances. Everything once they get to the final third is disjointed and it seems they don’t have a real way to play through the middle of the pitch, so the ball goes out wide but they aren’t sending any crosses in, meaning it’s lot of passing that lead to nothing.
If the Three Lions have a similar performance like the one against Slovakia here against Switzerland, they are going home. Slovakia pressed England early and created a bunch of chances by forcing Gareth Southgate's men into turnovers and then eventually they got the breakthrough. Switzerland are going to do the exact same thing, which is not good for England because they have shown some struggles in build up against pressure.
It's no fluke that Switzerland are in the quarterfinals. They came into the tournament as one of the most experienced and versatile tactical sides that can give England a lot of problems.
Their match against Germany showed that flexibility more than any other match. It was the first time since the 2022 World Cup where Switzerland were not the ones controlling the ball for a majority of the match. They didn't just sit back and let Germany pass the ball right through them. Instead, they man marked them all over the pitch and were not afraid to come out and pressure the ball. It caused Germany a lot of problems in their build up and also really made it difficult for them to create high quality chances.
Then against Italy in the round of 16, they showed how good of an in possession side they are. Granit Xhaka was sublime all night long, conducting the Swiss build up and attack with there being a clear emphasis on playing through the left side the pitch where Italy were weakest. The first goal was especially good with Switzerland's one touch quick passing playing right through Italy's defensive block and it is something they can without a doubt repeat against England.
Even with all of the offensive issues, England have been one of the best defensive teams in this tournament. They have only conceded 3.2 expected goals through their four matches and they do an outstanding job limiting opponents' transition opportunities.
Game state is always very crucial in international football, especially in the knockout stages. Whichever side goes ahead, it's going to slow the match down quite a bit and both defenses are not going to allow the match to get off the rails. In addition to that, the longer this match stays 0-0, the better chance it has at getting to extra time.
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07-06-24 03:38 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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England vs. Switzerland
Saturday, Noon. ET
Another England game, another England win, and a whole load of more fierce criticism. Yet still, the Three Lions remain the clear +275 favorites to lift the trophy on July 14th.
There is no denying England’s dreadful performance at Euro 2024. A safety-first manager persists with an unbalanced side that looks shorn of any confidence (one or two individuals apart). England was around 60 seconds away from elimination before that wonderful acrobatic goal from Jude Bellingham against Slovakia.
Yet here I am, tipping up a win for Gareth Southgate’s men, and not just because I am a proud Englishman who will be roaring my side on from the stands at the Merkur Spiel-Arena, Düsseldorf and then hopefully beyond. In fact, I have four very good reasons as to why this is a great bet.
Firstly, England can’t play any worse. They topped their group with three sluggish performances and forced extra time against the Slovaks with their first shot on target in the 95th minute. Somehow, they keep getting the job done while still desperately trying to click into gear.
Having Marc Guehi unavailable through suspension is a blow, but another enforced change could finally result in some much-needed balance. Kieran Tripper has been struggling with a calf injury and was taken off after 66 minutes in the last game. Bukayo Saka dropped to left-back, Cole Palmer took his place on the right, and England started to play much better. If Southgate chooses to or is forced to start that way on Saturday, I look forward to seeing a vastly improved England performance.
Confidence, mindset, belief and tournaments change on moments. Big-game players step up when the going gets tough. Who else? Jude Bellingham bellowed after that stoppage time wonder goal.
From the brink of elimination to three games from lifting a first major trophy in close to six decades, that group of players will start to believe it is their destiny. The fact Harry Kane scored 54 seconds into extra time underlined the point. Give him a chance, and he will generally score, as he has done 14 times now at major tournaments, more than any Englishman with only four European players ahead of him.
Finally, and most importantly England are huge value in my book at +125. The Swiss have punched above their weight at this tournament and are a well-organized side who have a settled squad that is playing to the peak of their powers as a team.
Murat Yakin’s men are not a prolific outfit, and we should be in for another tight matchup. Only two of their last 11 internationals has seen Over 2.5 goals, while for England, it is two of 10, so no surprise to see Under 2.5 goals priced up at around -200.
Games of fine margins are usually settled by match winners and game changers. England hold the aces in that respect both in starting lineup and off the bench. If this was the opening game of the tournament, England would be -163, and I feel the traders have massively overreacted.
Euro 2024 Best Bet: England Moneyline at +125.
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07-06-24 03:44 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65534
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Netherlands and Turkey meet in Berlin with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
Netherlands dominated Romania 3-0 to get to the quarterfinals and have a pretty good looking path to get to the finals. Even though they won 3-0, they really haven't looked that impressive throughout the Euros as Ronald Koeman once again has proven himself to be an inept tactical manager. They better bring their A+ game to this match because Turkey is no pushover.
Turkey survived an onslaught in the final stages against Austria to get to the quarterfinals for the first time since 2008. They have been one of the most exciting teams to watch at the Euros being a squad littered with young talent all over the pitch. Vincenzo Montella has done a masterful job since taking over and will have them set up really well here against the Netherlands.
The Dutch had real off-ball issues against Austria that Montella without a doubt will take advantage of. Austria kept getting them into a central overload with the Dutch players seemingly either not knowing the shape or not know who to man mark. Their press is half-hearted at best and their inability to close down the ball allowed Austria to pick out easy passes and create chances they should've never had in the first place.
One thing about Koeman systems that is really painful to watch is that he always goes for a lot of really safe passes. They did a terrible job building through Austria’s press and eventually what happened over and over was the ball went back to the goalkeeper who would send it long up to Depay.
The Netherlands may have ended up winning the xG battle in that match, but it was largely just because of individual quality — which is the reason they are here in the first place. Koeman has had them set up terribly time and time again. Their individual quality may shine out here against Turkey who has now conceded the 7.6 expected goals in four matches, but it certainly won’t be because of Koeman.
As Turkey has shown during this tournament, playing from a positive or negative game state is going to lead to a boat load of chances. There have been goals inside the first 30 minutes of each of their four matches, which has lead to those matches averaging 3.45 expected goals.
Turkey went with a very interesting approach against Austria that worked really well in the first half. They don’t really have a true striker, so they played Arda Guler as a roaming forward to play whatever role was best for them and it helped them play through Ralf Rangnick’s press. Because they had so many press resistant passers and ball carriers on the pitch, it made it easy to break the first couple lines of pressure to create a transition opportunity.
They can do the same against the Netherlands here who hasn’t been that great when they’ve had to press. When they played Austria, they only forced three high turnovers. When they played France, they only had a PPDA of 14.9.
Turkey is going to come with the same tactical plan to try and play through the Dutch press. They may be successful, or they may give the Dutch some easy transition opportunities.
Individual quality may see the Dutch through here to the next round, but there are some real tactical issues, especially off the ball that need to be fixed in a short amount of time. Montella will without a doubt have his side set up similar to how Austria did, which is going to cause the Netherlands a lot of problems.
Once the first goal goes in, this match is going to get off the rails, because neither of these defenses are good enough to park the bus and see the match out. Turkey certainly is not good enough defensively playing a passive defensive structure as they showed against Austria and their press has shown vulnerabilities as well.
All four of Turkey's matches have gone over the total and I am expecting that to happen again here.
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07-06-24 07:00 PM |
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