Canada and Venezuela meet in Friday night’s Copa America quarterfinal in a clash of two of the most-improved teams in the Western Hemisphere.

Venezuela have enjoyed a bright start to 2026 CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifying, where they currently sit fourth in the 10-team round robin after six games. And they won all three of their group stage matches to top Group B and set up a chance to reach only their second Copa America semifinal in program history.

Canada are trying to build momentum for co-hosting the 2026 World Cup after qualifying the 2022 tournament to end a 36-year drought. And they survived a 2-0 loss to Argentina in their first-ever Copa America match to take four points from their final two Group A matches and snag the group’s second quarterfinal berth.

This is only the sides’ third all-time meeting and first ever in a competitive fixture. The previous two friendlies finished level.

Venezuela’s success may be built on a new generation of talent, but their two most notable veterans have come through in big situations.

The 34-year old Salomon Rondon has scored in back-to-back appearances in competitive fixtures for the first time since the 2022 World Cup Qualifying cycle, and was also involved in both goals in Venezuela’s 2-1 victory over 10-man Ecuador to open the tournament. Those tallies were No. 42 and 43 in his career count as Venezuela’s all-time leading international scorer.

Also 34, goalkeeper Rafael Romo was phenomenal in his side’s 1-0 victory over Mexico, with his four-save total only telling part of the story. He’s allowed only one goal so far while facing chances that generated roughly 3.6 post-shot expected goals.

While the table suggests a dominant Group B showing from the Vinotinto, they benefited from some considerable good fortune.

Ecuador’s Enner Valencia was rightly red carded early in Venezuela’s 2-1 opening win. Oberlin Pineda missed a penalty for Mexico. And while the 3-0 win over Jamaica was convincing, it came against a Reggae Boyz side that appeared checked out mentally ahead of the perfunctory dismissal of manager Heimir Hallgrímsson

Canada received their own share of the breaks to reach this stage in their first competitive fixtures under new manager Jesse Marsch.

Most notably, the Canadians finished each of their final two group games up a man after Peru’s Miguel Araujo was dismissed early in the second half of Canada’s 1-0 win, and Chile’s Gabriel Suazo was similarly sent off in the first half of a 0-0 draw.

Basically all of Canada’s expected-goal advantage in those two games were complied with a man advantage. And even then, neither game felt particularly comfortable for Marsch’s squad.

But when you look at Canada’s personnel, maybe there’s an argument that being tasked with creating the game isn’t their natural strong suit. Their strength is on the flanks and at the top of the formation, and while they’ve only scored one goal so far they have always looked most dangerous on the counter.

That’s how their lone goal came, a lightning-quick length of the field attack following a Peru restart finished off by Jonathan David.

Marsch will be without one of those flank weapons on Friday, with Tajon Buchanan seeing his tournament end after suffering a tibia fracture in training.

Both Venezuela and Canada are improving programs, but based on how they’ve played 11 on 11 during this tournament, Venezuela look the considerably more well-rounded side.

Additionally, they are a more seasoned group given their start to qualifying, and they have a more in-tact senior leadership core.

Canada have some experienced players, but the retirement of midfielder Atiba Hutchinson and injury to Mark-Anthony Kaye has left a sizable hole in the center of the park.

Marsch is on the right track with this group, but given their lack of ability to create chances in any game state other than the counterattack, the Vinotinto are the play here if you can still find a draw no bet line in the neighborhood of -125 odds and an implied 55.5% probability.