The 2024 Home Run Derby presented by T-Mobile is on Monday July 15 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. Eight players will participate in this year’s event, which has some rather significant changes.

This year’s rule changes include a pitch limit by round, which is the most important handicapping angle of the entire thing. Batters get 40 pitches in the first round and the semifinals and then 27 pitches in the finals. That puts a lot of pressure on the pitcher to be as accurate as possible.

Bonus time is still available and the bracket-style format is gone for the first round, but will be used for the semifinals.

Pete Alonso (+340)

Alonso is a two-time Home Run Derby winner, as he won in 2019 at Progressive Field and again in 2021 at Coors Field. He was the No. 2 seed last year, but lost badly to Julio Rodriguez in the first round after losing to him in the semifinals in 2022.

Alonso deserves to be the favorite here and I do give him priority because Dave Jauss will be throwing to him once again. Jauss was his pitcher in 2021 and 2022 and the 40-pitch limits in Round 1 and the semifinals are going to create a lot of stress and anxiety for everybody, but Jauss has at least been on this stage before.

Marcell Ozuna (+380)

Ozuna may very well get booed by the Texas crowd, as he was arrested and charged with aggravated assault by strangulation and battery in 2021 and got a DUI in 2022. Generally you see the fans trying to prop up all the contenders, even with a hometown guy in the field, but I can’t see that being the case here with Ozuna.

Whether or not that matters in terms of his performance remains to be seen. Braves bullpen catcher Jose Yepez will throw to him and he is one of the regular batting practice pitchers, so that should help Ozuna’s quest to win the title. Ozuna has the highest Barrel% of any hitter in this field and that should help as well.

Gunnar Henderson (+475)

The only true lefty in the field is Henderson and Triple-A manager Buck Britton will pitch to him. He is the brother of longtime Orioles reliever Zach Britton. In terms of contact authority, Henderson has a 57.2% Hard Hit%, but a 13.7% Barrel%. I’m concerned that he may have to alter his swing a tad too much here, as he can absolutely hit for power, but we’ll see if the need to add a little more uppercut has an impact. Henderson is used to doing that with the high wall in RF at home, where he has hit 15 of his 27 homers.

For what it’s worth the Home Run Park Factor at Globe Life Field is 120 for righties over the last three seasons and 110 for lefties, which could be a disadvantage.

Adolis Garcia (+500)

The hometown guy is participating for the second straight year. Third base coach Tony Beasley pitched to Garcia last year. Garcia only hit 17 homers in the first round as Beasley struggled to find the strike zone. Only Mookie Betts hit fewer with 11. The violent swing of Garcia led to fatigue and he is somebody who could benefit from the 40-pitch limit, but he’ll need a better thrower. Also, Garcia has hit 17 homers this season, but he’s a below average hitter for the year with a big decrease in SLG.

Garcia’s contact authority still rates highly, but it has been a down year for him. I can’t imagine he’ll use Beasley again, but at time of publish, no pitcher had been announced.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+550)

Witt is going to be a really interesting contender to win this. His pitcher will be brother-in-law James Russell, who is a left-handed reliever that made 394 appearances and allowed 43 homers. Given that Witt could have used his father, we’ll see if he made the right call with Russell.

Witt doesn’t have a ton of protection in the Royals lineup, so his contact authority numbers could reflect the pitches he gets thrown. That said, he’s still got a 15.1% Barrel% and a 49.2% Hard Hit% to go along with a good launch angle for participating in this type of event. He has hit 13 of his 16 homers off of righties, but only has 67 PA against southpaws.

For what it’s worth, his 60-year-old dad retired in 2001 and is a righty.

Teoscar Hernandez (+1000)

The best part about a Home Run Derby for Hernandez is that he doesn’t have to worry about striking out. When he makes contact, the ball does go a long way and he comes in with a 48% Hard Hit% and a 14.5% Barrel%. Dino Ebel will be the pitcher here and he’s thrown in the HR Derby multiple times before.

Joc Pederson hit 39 homers in the second round back in 2019 with Ebel throwing to him. Hernandez hasn’t been viewed as a prolific power hitter, but he is on pace to crack 30 homers this season for the first time since 2021 with Toronto. He spent the last two seasons in the AL West with the Mariners, where his home park was a major detriment.

Jose Ramirez (+1300)

Ramirez was a participant two years ago and lost to Juan Soto in the first round. He batted right-handed in that Derby, which hasn’t historically been his power side. His contact authority metrics are the lowest of anybody in this field, so it makes sense that he’s a long shot.

He’ll also have a first-time pitcher in Junior Betances, who is the hitting coach for Triple-A Columbus. I don’t think he has much of a shot given his batted ball data and his size, as this is a very tiring contest.

Alec Bohm (+1600)

Bohm has a lower Barrel% than Ramirez, but does have a higher Hard Hit% and a more optimized launch angle, so I think he’d be worth a look in a head-to-head prop or something to that effect. Bohm is absolutely not a big home run threat, though, as he’s maxed out at 20 homers over his three seasons worth of service time.

Bohm does hit some long homers and has over 30 doubles. He’s given the nod to Scott Wingo, who played at South Carolina and has remained in the game at the collegiate ranks. I’m not sure Bohm will be around long, but he is a big dude with some big power when he’s actively trying to elevate the baseball.

Teo
+$925