New York Liberty vs Indiana Fever

These two teams just played on Thursday night, with the Liberty destroying Caitlin Clark’s Fever team, cashed on the Under, and now these teams will meet again in New York on Saturday afternoon. TSI makes the Liberty a 16.5-point favorite at home with a total of 167.5

Las Vegas Aces vs Los Angeles Sparks

A’ja Wilson was out of her mind in the Aces’ season debut, going for 30 points and 13 rebounds in a nine-point win over the Mercury. Meanwhile, the Sparks lost a shootout to the Atlanta Dream in their opener, allowing 92 points in the process. With the Aces playing at home, TSI projects Vegas -19.5 with a total of 165.5.

Dallas Wings vs Chicago Sky

Dallas came through Wednesday evening against the Sky, cashing both the spread and total and now these teams will face off again in Dallas. Wednesday’s lines were Dallas -7.5 and 161.5. My assumption is the opener for Saturday’s matchup will be similar, as Chicago led for much of that game Wednesday before collapsing in the fourth quarter, and the total ending up at 166.5. We might see the total open a touch higher – maybe 163 – but I’d expect the spread to be in the same ballpark as Wednesday. TSI projects Dallas -11 with a total of 174.6 (Chicago missed nearly a dozen shots at the rim on Wednesday, so I think we’re still going to see value on the over).

Life in the professional ranks hasn't been a smooth transition for Caitlin Clark. The No. 1 pick was the center of attention in college basketball but is now grappling with the pressure to perform at a level that matches the hype of her entry into the league. However, with Clark garnering so much attention in college, perhaps the expectations were too lofty for a Fever team with more questions than answers.

Clark-mania hasn’t gone unnoticed by opponents around the league who seem bound and determined to ensure that the league is so much more than a hotshot rookie. Indiana is clearly getting everyone’s best shot, having been outscored by 57 points over the first two games.

After losing 92-71 on the road to Connecticut, the New York Liberty handed Indiana a 102-66 defeat on Thursday in the first leg of a home-and-home series. With New York set for its home opener on Saturday afternoon, the quick turnaround might not be enough time for the Fever to implement any significant adjustments in the rematch.

There’s no question that teams view defending Clark as almost a personal challenge. Opposing teams are putting their best on-ball defender on Clark, with Betnijah Laney-Hamilton the latest to draw the assignment.

New York lists Laney-Hamilton as a forward, which means the team is making a calculated decision to have her guard Clark. Thus, thwarting Clark is central to how opposing teams strategize against the Fever.

In Indiana’s season opener against the Sun, Clark committed 10 turnovers and finished with 20 points on 5-of-15 shooting.

While the Iowa product protected the ball better in her second game (three turnovers), she scored only nine points and went 1-of-7 from beyond the arc.

Teams also target Clark defensively as a way to disrupt her rhythm. She’s averaging 4.5 fouls over the two games this season. The thing the Fever needs to guard against is making sure that Clark doesn’t get too overly frustrated with her struggles this early in the season.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That should be the motto for the Liberty heading into this game. However, New York would like to improve some things, such as its perimeter shooting.

The Liberty shot 8-of-27 (29.6%) from beyond the arc. Nonetheless, New York’s dominance on the glass ensured it got plenty of second-chance opportunities by out-rebounding Indiana 40-26.

The team does rebound particularly well after finishing last season ranked second with 37.9 boards per game.

New York’s best player, Breanna Stewart, was also much more aggressive in her second game, with 21 shot attempts compared to just nine in the season opener. Stewart finished with a game-high 31 points against Indiana.

With New York likely to try and put on a show in front of its home crowd, there could be a feeling of déjà vu for a Fever team that’s clearly struggling early on.

It’s difficult to see any imminent changes for the Fever just two games into the season. Indiana wants to play with an up-tempo style, but it’s currently last in rebounding, which hampers its transition opportunities. As a result, opposing teams are forcing Indiana to play defense for longer stretches.

Moreover, Clark is somewhat of a defensive liability if she continues getting into foul trouble.

Based on that assessment, I can only look to the home team in this matchup, and I’m particularly intrigued by ESPN BET’s first-half point spread of -7.5.

I’ve also identified a scoring prop that also offers value: Courtney Vandersloot under 10.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)

The Liberty essentially operates with two point guards, with Vandersloot and Sabrina Ionescu in the backcourt.

However, Vandersloot is more of a pass-first player at this early stage, averaging 5.5 assists through two games. She has yet to have an outing this season with double figures in field goal attempts and is averaging fewer minutes (27.5 vs. 31.5) than Ionescu.

Last year, Vandersloot averaged 30.4 minutes per game, and if New York is making a conscious effort to avoid wearing her out at age 35, there’s a decent chance we will continue to see some correlation with a reduction in scoring.