Four terrific games mark the Saturday afternoon landscape for bettor’s to choose from, with each taking on a Texas Hold’em quality. USC and Oregon highlight a superb group of matinee action, with the loser having to reevaluate goals for the rest of the season. The Big East contenders will be more clearly known by the evening with the top four teams meeting, deciding the contenders from pretenders. Those wagering have already chimed in what they think about the game formerly known as the World Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, taking Florida down better than two points from opening oddsmakers number. In this time of political unrest and unabashed correctness, it’s good to see that event no longer carries that moniker, bottoms up. All lines shown are from Sportsbook.com

USC (+3, 60.5) at Oregon 3:00E FSN

Just a little over three weeks ago, USC was destined to play in the title game against LSU or comparable opponent. In this short amount of time they have slid faster out of the spotlight than Ashlee Simpson. No team could overcome all the injuries to the offensive like Pete Carroll’s team have and they are starting to get healthier. What has caught most observers off guard in the lack of playmakers on the perimeter in the passing game. In the past someone for USC has always stepped forward until this season. One developing plotline is, who will quarterback, sophomore Mark Sanchez or senior John David Booty? One thing for sure, the road team is 8-2 ATS.

Oregon football has not been this hot since they last went to the Rose Bowl in 1994 as Pac-10 champs. Dennis Dixon is the general of arguably the most dynamic and complete offense in college football, averaging 46.6 points a game and over 550 yards an outing. Both of those figures are second in the nation. With two game homestand against USC and Arizona State, the Ducks have the ability to write there own destiny. One negative is Oregon is getting thin at wide receiver with injuries and will need everybody available against the country’s third best defense. The Ducks are 20-8 ATS after out-gaining opponent by 225 or more total yards in their previous game.

The intrigue of this Pac-10 contest has almost no end. The winner keeps BCS and Pac-10 title hopes alive, the loser not so much. USC is 15-5 ATS after a win by 35 or more points; Oregon is 31-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. Until beating a horrible Notre Dame, the Trojans had looked anything but super the last several weeks. Oregon can put up Arena Football numbers on offense, but has allowed more then 30 points in three of last four games. The Ducks are 4-9 ATS in last 13 outing versus the Trojans. This ought to be a beauty.

StatFox Forecaster – USC covers
StatFox Power Line – Oregon by 2
StatFox Outplay Factor – Oregon by 20


West Virginia (-6, 57.5) at Rutgers 12:00E ABC/GP

Rutgers has a couple extra day of preparation to ready themselves for explosive West Virginia attack after upset win at home over previously unbeaten South Florida. It is hard to say what Greg Schiano might have left in bag of tricks after emptying a large portion last week. A faulty run defense finally stood up against a solid running team like USF, holding them to 115 yards. Next up is the nation’s number two rushing offense in West Virginia, with Steve Slaton and QB Pat White leading the Mountaineer Express to 304.1 YPG and Dick Enberg “oh my”, 6.2 yards per carry. The Scarlet Knights defense is not the same as last year’s formidable bunch, meaning they have to play assignment football against option and be sure tacklers. Rutgers has been tailor-made for this spot with 6-0 ATS record as an underdog over the last two seasons.

If coaches preach two methodologies it is urgency and patience. West Virginia loss to South Florida at the time really crippled chances of being in BCS title game. However, as the teams above them have continued to be knocked off, the Mountaineers have slowly been creeping up the national rankings and if they understand about doing their job they might have a shot come December 1. West Virginia is no longer a two man team, with lethal weapons like WR Darius Reynaud and explosive RB Noel Devine coming off the bench. The Mountaineers schedule could hardly be described as difficult, nonetheless they are holding the opposition to a Big East best 89.4 YPG on the ground. If they can limit RB Ray Rice to reasonable numbers, they force Mike Teel to beat a good secondary with a bad thumb.

With Rutgers a doormat for years, West Virginia has whipped the Scarlet Knights with great frequency, listing 28-4-2 record, last losing 13 years ago. Rutgers has still covered spreads, as the home team is 11-5 ATS in last 16 meetings proves. Turnovers might play an influential role in this Big East battle, as Rutgers has committed 11 in the last four games and West Virginia forcing 10 in there last three trips to the gridiron. The ‘Teers are 11-3 ATS after a game where they forced three or more turnovers. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the loser is out of the Big East title chase.

StatFox Forecaster – Rutgers covers
StatFox Power Line – West Virginia by 5
StatFox Outplay Factor – West Virginia by 7

South Florida (-4.5, 46) at Connecticut 3:30E ABC/GP

A person might have been up for insanity saying this would be an important conflict on the Big East schedule. South Florida is making its only back to back road appearance of the season, flying up to Connecticut after suffering first loss of the season at Rutgers. As many moderate football followers are not even aware where the Bulls are located (Tampa), those teams that have traveled to play USF certainly are keen of the speed and athleticism they possess. South Florida is in a comfortable role, being 10-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

Connecticut is more know for basketball and Foxwoods casino, yet has steadily built a nice little program in Stoors. The Huskies had TV time last week with come from behind upset of Louisville and will tackle another adept opponent at Rentschler Field. QB Tyler Lorenzen has managed the games well, giving the Huskies a chance to win each time out. The major disadvantage UConn has is the lack of foot speed across the field compared to South Florida. With no real game breakers, they are unlikely to pull away from the Bulls even if the turnovers go there way. By the same token it would be foolish to sell the Huskies short since that not allowed more than 17 points in a game and are 7-0 ATS in home games after playing a conference game.

Connecticut has yet to defeat the Bulls in two conference meetings or previously when they were independents. With speed being so important, if the Bulls get over the disappointment of losing, they have the athletes on defense to breakdown UConn offense. South Florida is 5-2 ATS in the 2nd of two road tilts. USF quarterback Matt Grothe is the closet thing to Doug Flutie as a playmaker in college football and should emerge victorious in an affair with two well-coached squads.

StatFox Forecaster – South Florida covers
StatFox Power Line – South Florida by 6
StatFox Outplay Factor – South Florida by 7


Georgia (+7.5, 55.5) vs. Florida 3:30E CBS

Call it what you will, “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, drinking in moderation”, is once again open for business and both schools are anxious to use this SEC attraction as precursor to close fast. Florida is playing second straight difficult conference clash after beating and covering against Kentucky last week. Tim Tebow is carrying this young team with every ounce of energy he can muster. The sophomore is banged up on his non-throwing shoulder, which could reduce his willingness to run. In spite of averaging almost 450 yards a game, the Gators are not terribly diverse, with running backs a dime a dozen and nobody other than WR Percy Harvin making a name for themselves. It’s about Tebow and a powerful offensive line. The Gators are 48-20 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play.

In some circles Georgia is believed to be having off year, but much like the Gators they are young, with a few more players that were on the field last season. The bye week came at a great time for the Bulldogs who have lost a bevy of running backs. Redshirt freshman Knowshon Moreno is now the main man and the O-Line must block for him and protect QB Matt Stafford. Mark Richt is a top level coach in a conference loaded with them, thus look for the Bulldogs to come out throwing early to test very beatable Florida secondary that is ranked 95th nationally in surrendering 256.6 YPG. The Georgia defense does not do anything spectacular and will need all hands on deck to stop Tebow both as runner and passer. The Bulldogs are 42-24 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record

The rivalry has been a very unpleasant experience for Georgia who has lost 15 of 17, covering a mere five times. Once the oddsmakers set the line at Florida -10 points, bettors jumped on in, knowing the favorite is 1-4-1 ATS the last six years and the five Cocktail Parties have decided by a touchdown or less. Just remember this, the straight winner is 21-3-1 ATS in the last quarter century.


StatFox Forecaster – Florida covers
StatFox Power Line – Florida by 9
StatFox Outplay – Florida by 13

Love the USC pick. Not that I'm a homer or anything :). Actually, USC is the better team by far. I know that is a bold statement but I follow the Pac 10 closely. People don't realize the number of injuries the Trojans have had to overcome but it has made this team a better team in the last few weeks with all of the experience the Trojan reserves have been getting and they should wear Oregon down just with the substitions throughout the game. USC should have been the favorite. I think the country will see a much better USC team in the second half of this season. Good luck and love reading your posts and articles. Appreciate the time and hard work.

Craig