Because of the slim pickins today(no real play of the day) I actually tried to do some "real" handicapping. I think if we take the easy way out just using the star system we may fall into a trap. I know is great so far, but even Nick in other posts mentioned that he wants to hear other opinions. I think most professional handicappers star by establishing if there is value in the line. There is a theory that if you have and edge on the line in the long run you come out ahead. Which also means that if you play teams with no value or the value against you, eventually you lose, because you are paying more for those picks. Is sort of paying more for stocks than they are worth. I give you an example for today. I was trying to decide wheter to bet ChiWS or Bal. They both have an edge in the stars and in the estimator but if you look closely at the line in the estimator the CWS's line should be -237(actual line -175) according to the estimator and Bal should be -137(actual line -160) therefore I feel more conf. going with CWS from a value point of view. I would like to hear from you guys about this.

I also choose CWS for the same reason. I saw that the stars came in at 14 so was a bit sceptical because I have just joined the boat. instead of a 10% wager I went down to 5%...might be another hard learning curve for me for not following the "true system" but after analysing the sheets...seemed like a good play. That and the NNY under...we shall see. Best to all!

Chicago game:

Look at the regular everyday stats. Chicago can hit the ball and Cleveland can not. Both pitchers struggle against the team they are facing today. Not very many starts but Garland 1-6 7.30 era and Westbrook 1-1 13.50 era. Garland has not pitched well this year 0-1 5.82 era and lost to the Indians. Now Westbrook 0-1 0.75 era and his team lost both games to Royals and Orioles. Streaking Chicago is playing good and the Indians are not. It's too tough a call for me, I see no value in a line of -170. Just my opinion. One teams got the hitting the others got the pitching.

Baltimore game:

Devil Rays are pesky, they have already beat the Yankees and the Red Sox this year and played tough in other game. Lou has really got this team believing they can be succesful. On the other hand they are the Devil Rays. They can score some runs but dont pitch very well. The Orioles have smacked around Pedro and company but they are the Orioles and Rick Helling has a 6.00 erathis year and has always had a high era in his career. Last two games were split with an average score of 8.5-7.0. I dont see any value in this game either. I am no good on the totals but the only possible value I can find in this game is over 9 with these two pitchers.

Hope this helps. Good luck which ever way you decide to go.

I also went with the under in the NY/Min game same reasoning 57 stars, estimator shows the total for the game just under 8. That means I have 1 run worth of value in my pick. It may lose, but in the long run it is the "right strategy" just like playing basic strategy in blackjack.

so much for logic ha!

well back to the drawing board!