two nights in a row my bet on oakland has gotten cancelled because k. rogers gets replaced

i like the a's either way. but with the other guys pitching, i have to pay some extra coin to take them. last night i chickened out when the line went to $-1.90. today it is up over $2.00. i hate taking favs that big.

what's up with kenny?

Maybe he dropped his appeal and started to serve his suspension?

Just a guess.

Rangers - LHP Kenny Rogers was originally slated to start the series opener and then was pushed back to Friday, but manager Buck Showalter decided to give him a few extra days off after his All-Star appearance Tuesday. Rogers, awaiting the decision on the appeal of his 20-game suspension for a run-in with two cameramen on June 29, will start Saturday.

- CBS Sportsline

thanks for info. i think i'll just sit it out again. $2.10 is too expensive - even against worthless wasdin.

This is a rather strange day for pitching changes in general. Overall there were 4 changes today.

Detroit: Robertson for Douglass
Tampa Bay: Nomo for Hendrickson
NY Yankees: Redding for [Undecided]
Texas: Wasdin for Rogers.

Rogers' start was pushed back to Saturday according to the Fort Worth Star-Telegr

Enjoy...

I have the A's as a very nice play tonight. With or without Rogers. In my system(I started June) home favorites that qualify with the line over -180 is 30-5 w. the cubs win today. + $1,875.

Thats $1875 in like 40 days for a $100 bettor.

Maybe he is getting a rash from all the ballpark cameramen and needs to be scratched??

Jeffdane,

What are your qualifications other than solid -180 faves? I have a new system which seems loosely based in the same matter as yours.

Capo:

Qualifications for my system:

HOME team must be on a 2 game win streak or greater.
AWAY team must be on 1 game loss streak or greater.

I give 1 point for each win/loss. Example: Oakland game:
Oakland 4W Texas 1L= +5 points

I now look at the pitchers. I look at what streak the team is on when said pitcher pitches. Ex: Oakland game: Zito 3W and Wasdin 1W. I give +3 points for each in this case. Zito 3W=9 and Wasdin 1W= -3 for a total of +6.

Add the two together and if you have a positive number then you have a play. Ex: Oakland game:

This is how I look at it. Oakland: 4w/1L, 3w/1w= +11

I have doing this for years with just ace pitchers and it has worked well but only like 50 plays a year or so. I started tracking this in on June 4th. (If anyone would know how to backcheck this easily please share). Here are the records I have since June.

Overall: 111-70 +23.65 units
Favorites: 90-43 +28.10 units
Home Favorites: 73-27 +29.80 units
Dogs: 19-21 +3.15 units
Home Dogs: 7-10 -1.25 units
HOme: 81-40 +26.35 units
Road: 30-30 -2.60 units
opening Line -160 or greater: 46-11 +26.35 unit
Opening line -180 or greater: 31-5 +19.75 units

I am also in the process of tracking each streak. For example I mean.

Team streak of 4W home is 15-4.
My pitcher streak of 3W home is 11-4.
" " 2L home is 7-1.
Opponent pitcher streak is 2L home(i mean home game for my team) is 18-4.
" " is 2L away is 9-1.

I have all angles tracked and I working on something new to implement them greater.

PS: Like I said I have only been tracking this since June 4th. It has a good sample size for a short period of time but it is a short period of time.

could you post your plays???

jeffdane,

Very good stuff. I will have to pay attention to see when these streaks come up and watch the games closely.

The only thing that puzzles me is that you said this scenario only comes up about 50 times a year...and we are only halfway thru the season and it is already at 30-5.

Also, all your breakdowns of Home, Home Favorite, Dog, etc...what plays are those? Because from your first paragraph, you look for home faves with aces on a winning streak...not dogs, etc. Also, there are like 170+ games listed on your breakdown, so I know this is different than the 30-5 record for your special system.

Any more insight would be mighty helpful. Thanks.

Let me start over. The system is as I stated earlier. All the records that I posted are system plays. Not all are good. I just started tracking this June 4th and some other plays. What I said about only 50 plays was this. The last few years I used this same system but only used it with good pitchers(ACES). There ended up being around 50 plays a year. This year I decided to take it a step further to see if this could work with all pitchers. I started June 4th and also included the numbers thatthe ACES had before June 4th of this year.

Now not all thegames need to be a home that was just the most profitable angle. The 31-5 s a system play with filters. The filters being the opening line and played at home.

I just returned from the bar not too long ago so if this doesnt make sense let me know. If you would like to just send me an email with your questions its jeffdane@hotmail.com