Texas State (-13.5) @ Troy
Texas State (2-2)
Bobcats lost last two games, by total of four points.
Texas State led 22-0 in 1st quarter LW, lost 40-39 to Sam Houston.
Texas State has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Bobcats have 68 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB McCloud started 13 games at James Madison LY; he is at his 4th in six years- he played in 20 games at South Florida, 3 at Arizona.

Last three year, Texas State is 1-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, Bobcats were 6-10 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Texas State’s one I-A win was 49-10 over UTSA.
Bobcats are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games coming off a loss.
Texas State has thrown ball for 301 yards/game in its I-A tilts.

Troy (1-4)
Trojans are 0-4 vs I-A teams, with home losses by 2-4 points.
Troy has 2 starters back on offense, 2 on defense
Trojans have 42 starts back on offensive line.
Frosh QB Kilcrease played LW, threw only 10 passes in 13-9 loss.
Trojans ran ball for 241 yards, but didn’t score a TD.

Troy was 23-5 SU last two years; they’ve got new coach this year.
Since 2015, Troy is 3-6 ATS as a home underdog.
Last two years, Trojans were 13-3 ATS in Sun Belt games.
Troy was held under 275 TY in its last three I-A games.
Trojans are 4-7 ATS in last 11 games coming off a loss.

Troy State won last nine series games (3-3 ATS last six).
Bobcats are 0-5 SU/2-3 ATS in last five visits to Troy.
Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Sam Houston State (-10.5) @ UTEP
Sam Houston State (4-1)
Bearkats won last three games, scoring 31-31-40 points.
Bearkats ran ball for 278.3 yards/game in those wins.
Sam Houston has 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Bearkats have 70 starts back on offensive line.
Junior QB Watson played JC ball in Iowa last year.

Last four years, Sam Houston is 5-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Bearkats are 13-15 ATS in last 28 conference games.
Bearkats were down 22-0 LW, rallied to beat Texas State, 40-39.
Sam Houston is 4-1 ATS in last five games coming off a win.
Under is 3-2 in their games this season.

Texas-El Paso (0-4)
Miners lost their I-A games by 33-18-10 points, scoring 11.3 ppg.
UTEP has been outrushed 634-195 in its I-A games.
UTEP has 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
Miners have 26 starts back on offensive line, mostly at I-AA level.
Soph QB Locklear came with the new coach from I-AA Austin Peay.

UTEP is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games as a home underdog.
UTEP is 18-11 ATS in last six 29 conference games.
Miners are 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a loss.
UTEP lost 27-24 to I-AA Southern Utah.
Under is 3-0 in their games this season.

UTEP (+3.5) upset Sam Houston 37-34 LY, running for 222 yards.
Miners outgained Sam Houston, 428-354.

The Lone Star State will be well-represented on Thursday night to kick off Week 6, as three of the four teams in action hail from Texas. Texas State, Sam Houston State, and UTEP all take the field, along with Troy, as we get a double dose of small-conference football to get things underway. Both road teams are double-digit favorites and two of them actually played each other last week in a game that could have a significant impact on how they perform this week.

Texas State Bobcats (-13, 57.5) at Troy Trojans
7 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

Sun Belt action takes us to Alabama, as Troy hosts Texas State. This will be the first true road game of the season for the Bobcats, who lost at NRG Stadium to Sam Houston State last Saturday. It is a quick turnaround for both of those teams, but Texas State has to be eager to get back on the field after blowing last week’s game against the Bearkats.

Texas State had over 6.2 yards per play in the 40-39 loss and had a 22-0 lead after the first quarter. Despite not scoring for almost 27 minutes, the Bobcats were six seconds away from a win, but Sam Houston State kicked a 24-yard chippy for the win. So, it was a massive collapse from the Bobcats, who even got a 60-yard field goal from Mason Shipley right before the halftime horn.

The Bobcat defense has problems but the offense seems just fine under James Madison transfer Jordan McCloud. Troy has allowed 6.35 yards per play in four FBS games, so I expect the Bobcats to move the rock in this one.

I do not expect Troy to move the ball much. They had 8.7 YPP in the win over Florida A&M, but have just barely over five yards per play against FBS foes. This team lost so much from last season and now gets a very angry, very unhappy Texas State team in a spotlight game for head coach GJ Kinne, who will level up and have a better job next season.

Sam Houston State at UTEP
Thursday, 9:00 p.m. ET (CBSSN)

Sam Houston State had a comeback for the ages last week in upsetting Texas State at home, coming from 22-0 down at one point to score a 40-39 win. It was one of the biggest wins in school history, certainly at the FBS level. Now, the Bearkats get to strut their stuff in front of a national TV audience on Thursday night, and I expect them to do so. They are getting the support of the betting public at DraftKings, as over 70% of the money and bets have gone that way as of Wednesday. That is good in this case. When the majority of the number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022 and 2023 season record was 150-90 (62.5%)!

The opponent is a UTEP team that is struggling at 0-4 and just 6-18 (25%) ATS at Home since 2020. After losing 37-34 in head-to-head play last year, SHSU also will be backed by two revenge systems in this one 1) Double-digit road favorites have been solid producers in the revenge role, going 48-34 ATS (58.5%) since 2016. 2) College football teams seeking revenge and having at least four more wins on the season than their opponent have been very successful, going 93-15 SU and 72-31-5 ATS (69.9%) since 2016.

Sam Houston State Bearkats (-10.5, 50) at UTEP Miners: The 9 p.m. ET kickoff on CBS Sports Network features the aforementioned Bearkats against a well-rested UTEP team. There is a clear letdown angle to consider with Sam Houston State, but UTEP is awful and that may mitigate any hangover from the biggest FBS win for SHSU aside from their first one last year against Louisiana Tech.

Remember, SHSU started 0-8 and lost 37-34 to UTEP at home last season before getting a win over then-FCS Kennesaw State. UTEP kicked a game-winning field goal with three seconds left, so there’s a revenge factor in play here.

I think the biggest thing is just how much better the Bearkats are all around, while it seems like very little has changed for the Miners in Scotty Walden’s first season at the helm. UTEP ranks 113th in yards per play and is one of 21 teams with fewer than five yards per play. They have actually mustered just 4.5 YPP against FBS opponents. They had 6.4 YPP in the loss to Southern Utah.

The spot is undoubtedly bad with the quick turnaround and the emotional win over Texas State, but the Bearkats are simply the better team by a good margin.

Jacksonville State (-15.5) @ Kennesaw State
Jacksonville State (1-3)
Gamecocks gave up 55-49-37 points in their three losses.
Jax State ran for 273 yards LW, pounded Southern Miss, 44-7.
Jax State has 5 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
Gamecocks have 67 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB Huff played last two years at I-AA Furman.

Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 2-3 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 10-3 ATS in conference games.
Jax State was +5 in turnovers LW (minus-2 in first three games).
Under Rodriguez, Gamecocks are 9-7 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 3-1 in their games this season.

Kennesaw State (0-4)
Kennesaw lost its first three I-A games by 12-24-21 points.
Owls also lost 27-13 to UT-Martin, a I-AA team.
Kennesaw has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Owls have 33 starts back on offensive line, added six transfers.
Soph QB Bryson is 51-97/540 passing, with one TD, 3 INTs.

This is their first season as a I-A team.
Kennesaw is 1-2 ATS as a home underdog.
Owls were outgained by 213 yards/game in their I-A tilts.
Kennesaw is 2-8 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.
Under is 3-0 in their I-A games this season.

Home team won both meetings, in 2021-22.
Jax State lost 31-6 here three years ago.

Houston @ TCU (-16.5)
Houston (1-4, 0-2)
Houston was blanked 34-0/20-0 in its first two Big X games.
Last 2 games, Cougars were minus-6 in turnovers, passed for 92-72 yards.
Houston has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Cougars have 118 returning starts on OL, only 30 of them at Houston.
Senior QB Smith has 20 career starts.

Houston is 10-7-1 ATS in last 18 games as a road underdog.
Houston is 6-12-1 ATS in its last 17 conference games.
In his career, Fritz is 23-22-1 ATS as an underdog
Cougars are 5-8-2 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Under is 5-0 in their games this season.

TCU (3-2, 1-1)
TCU gave up 35-66 points in their two losses.
TCU gave up 289-238 rushing yards in those games.
TCU has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Horned Frogs have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Hoover started six games last year.

Under Dykes, TCU is 7-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Dykes, TCU is 10-8-1 ATS coming off a win.
In his career, Dykes is 28-22 ATS as home favorite.
Horned Frogs gained 457-460-480-507 TY in their I-A games.
Over is 4-0 in their I-A games this season.

TCU won/covered last six series games.
Only one of those six games has been since 2007.
Last three meetings stayed under the total.

Michigan State @ Oregon (-24)
Michigan State (3-2, 1-1)
Spartans lost last two games, scoring 19-7 points.
New coach Smith comes from Oregon State, his alma mater.
MSU has 5 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Spartans have 31 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB Chiles was a sub at Oregon State LY, playing every third series.

MSU is 8-5-2 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Last 2+ years, Spartans are 7-11-2 ATS in league games.
Under is 3-1 in their I-A games.
Michigan State is 5-7-2 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
Spartans are already minus-7 in turnovers.

Oregon (4-0, 1-0)
Oregon scored 37-49-34 points in its I-A wins.
Last two games, Ducks gained 546-431 TY.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).

Under Lanning, Oregon is 17-7 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 9-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Ducks are 14-4 ATS in last 18 conference games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 16-6 ATS coming off a win.
Over is 2-1 in their I-A games.

Teams haven’t met since a bowl game six years ago.
While coaching the Beavers, Smith was 2-4 SU/3-3 ATS vs Oregon.

Syracuse @ UNLV (-7)
Syracuse (3-1)
Syracuse scored 38-31-24 points in its I-A games (2-1)
Orange threw for 354-381-339 yards in those games.
Syracuse has 10 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Orangemen have 77 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB McCord started 12 games at Ohio State last year.

First road game for Syracuse, which also plays in a dome at home.
Last two years, Syracuse was 1-6 ATS as a road underdog.
In its I-A games, Syracuse gave up 22-28-26 points.
Syracuse is 10-4-1 ATS in last 15 non-conference games.
Orange is 12-7-1 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
ACC non-conference road underdogs are 4-2 ATS.

UNLV (4-0)
Rebels are 4-0 for first time in 40+ years.
UNLV gave up 7-20-14 points in its I-A games.
UNLV has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 79 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Williams started 40 games at I-AA Campbell.

Under Odom, UNLV is 13-3 against the spread.
In his career, Odom is 18-11 ATS as a home favorite.
UNLV players have chip on shoulder after their QB quit over NIL stuff.
Since 2018, UNLV is 18-5 ATS in non-league games.
Mountain West non-conference home favorites are 4-1 ATS.

Syracuse Orange at UNLV Rebels (-6.5, 58.5)
9 p.m. ET (FS1)

The Matthew Sluka soap opera dominated a lot of headlines last week, but the true domination was what UNLV did to Fresno State. Campbell transfer Hajj-Malik Williams took over at QB when Sluka abruptly left the program after a NIL dispute and led the highly-motivated Rebels to a 59-14 demolition of Fresno State.

But, it’s a new week and a better opponent is in town. The Orange are hitting the road for the first time this season and have a shocking home loss to Stanford on the ledger, but they’ve scored at least 31 points in each of their wins with a transfer QB of their own in Kyle McCord. McCord already has 14 TD passes to his name and LeQuint Allen has averaged better than five yards per carry.

The Orange offense does need to get TE Oronde Gadsden back into the mix, as he was the team’s leading receiver after two weeks, but hasn’t been seen much since. The Orange have thrown the ball 177 times against 118 runs, as the new coaching staff led by head coach Fran Brown is relying heavily on the former Buckeye.

To me, this feels like a step up in class for the UNLV defense. Perhaps the unit will be very strong under longtime DC Barry Odom, but Kansas and Houston both look awful this season and Fresno State lost Jeff Tedford less than a month before the season started. I think the Rebels defense gets tested here.

I certainly think UNLV can still get theirs, as Syracuse’s defense hasn’t stood out in any way and ranks below the national average in yards per carry allowed. Williams racked up over 300 all-purpose yards, with 182 through the air and 119 on the ground. He’s a tough player to defend against.

I just find this to be enough of a step up for the Rebels defense that Syracuse can cover the 6.5 here. I wouldn’t be shocked if this line gets to 7. For the purposes of lead time and getting the article out, it’s 6.5, but a 7 could be coming. The total is also likely to keep rising from 58.5 where it sits now.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks (-16.5, 49) at Kennesaw State Owls: The 7 p.m. kick on CBS Sports Network between Jacksonville State and Kennesaw State is a game to keep an eye on. Not because it will be a good one, but because Tuesday and Wednesday Conference USA games begin next week. That means it’s a good time to familiarize yourself with those teams.

The Owls are in the running with Kent State for the worst FBS team this season and just lost 24-13 to FCS UT Martin. They’re 0-3 in FBS games by a combined score of 93-36. But, Jacksonville State looks a few notches down from last season with an 0-3 start, including blowout losses at the hands of Coastal Carolina and Louisville. Kennesaw State is actually one of my biggest power ratings overlays of the week because of how disappointing the Gamecocks have been.

Southern Miss turned it over six times last game to help the Cocks to a 44-7 win. As long as Kennesaw State takes better care of the ball, they have a chance to keep it close.

Houston Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs (-16.5, 51.5): ESPN has this 7:30 p.m. ET contest in Fort Worth between a couple of disappointing teams. Houston has been awful on offense. They beat Rice 33-7, but have scored 7, 12, 0, and 0 points in their four games against good teams. I’m not sure TCU is a “good” team, but they are better than Rice.

The scores would suggest TCU’s defense has been trash, but they’ve only allowed 5.5 yards per play in four FBS games. Being -6 in TO margin doesn’t help, as they are tied for second in the nation with six lost fumbles. QB Josh Hoover has played well on the whole, but the running game is weak.

Michigan State Spartans at Oregon Ducks (-24, 52.5): The huge clash between Oregon and Ohio State is next week, but the Ducks need to focus and get past Michigan State first. Dan Lanning’s crew still doesn’t seem to be operating at full strength, as the blowout win in the Civil War game with Oregon State failed to carry over into the first quarter against UCLA. The Ducks looked a little hungover in their first Big Ten game and only led 7-3 after one, but eventually won 34-13 over the lowly Bruins.

Ohio State did the same with Michigan State last week and then pulled away, as Sparty trailed 3-0 after one and then the floodgates opened. We’ll see if Jonathan Smith’s team faces a similar face here, but he’s obviously very familiar with Lanning and the Ducks after coaching at Oregon State for six seasons, including two with Lanning at the helm in Eugene.

I’m not sure Sparty has the talent to hang for the full 60, but a slow start keeps them around and Oregon may start peaking towards the Buckeyes later in the game.

Syracuse at UNLV
Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET (FS1)

All the discourse last week regarding UNLV QB Matthew Sluka and his departure from the program turned out to be a big nothing-burger when it came to the game last week versus Fresno State. The Runnin’ Rebels took care of business in a big way, and everything looks hunky dory now, right? Well, I have some concerns about this Friday night tilt with Syracuse, perhaps none more than a G5 team that is getting a lot of love now being favored over a P4 team that is experienced and somewhat underrated.

Transfer QB Kyle McCord has been a stud in the early going for the Orange, who are averaging a whopping 372.5 YPG through the air. Making matters worse for the hosts here, UNLV allows 11.3 yards per completion. It is easy to see head coach Fran Brown’s team getting a lot of big plays through the air and scoring plenty of points. That is a trait I look for in live underdogs. That big win last week for head coach Barry Odom’s team also puts them in a difficult spot here: Both college football teams coming off a game that was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next contest, going just 131-178-1 ATS (42.4%) over the last decade-plus.

TCU has welcomed plenty of track meets due to scheduling, but this isn’t one of them.

Houston vs. TCU totals in recent years would have been good for the high-60s. Both teams’ identities, however, have been altered, especially Houston’s.

Pace could be a problem to get past 51. TCU’s averaging fewer possessions than last year, and the Cougars are down a full 10 plays on average.

The Cougars boast a secondary just outside the top 20 nationally in yards per completion allowed. Limiting explosive plays and the inability to create any offense — Houston’s 121st in yards per completion and 82nd in yards per rush this season — is a solid recipe for a low-scoring game.

Power conference matchups played on any day except Saturday have gone under 56% of the time since tracking.

After five years under coach Dana Holgorsen, Houston decided to go into a new direction by bringing in veteran coach Willie Fritz, whose 31-year coaching career has included successful stops at Tulane, Georgia Southern and Sam Houston State.

Unfortunately, this looks like it will be a full rebuild in his debut campaign. It also doesn’t help that the program made the jump up to the Big 12 this year.

Even with the slow start, Fritz has led significant improvements on the defensive side of the ball. Houston’s defense has allowed just 1,471 yards, the program’s third-fewest over the first five games of a season since 2000.

On the other side of the ball, Fritz is starting to see his run scheme come to fruition. The Cougars have run for 554 yards over their past three games, a sharp contrast to the first two games, during which Houston rushed for a combined 96 yards.

It was always going to be a difficult campaign, but I expect Fritz to turn this around if he's given the time.

Just two seasons ago, coach Sonny Dykes led the program to the national championship game. However, the 2022-23 TCU team feels like a distant memory.

The Horned Frogs failed to make a bowl last year, losing four of their final five games down the stretch. That led to a change on the defensive side of the ball, where Dykes brought in former Boise State coach Andy Avalos as defensive coordinator.

Unfortunately, it hasn’t been a smooth transition for Avalos. TCU gave up over 500 total yards in a loss to UCF before allowing 66 points to SMU in the Battle for the Iron Skillet.

On the positive side, the offense has been explosive behind the duo of quarterback Josh Hoover and receiver Jack Bech. Hoover ranks third in the FBS in passing yards (1,774) and is tied for fourth in touchdown passes (14).

Bech has been the main benefactor of the team’s great passing. Coming into this game, he is the only player in the FBS to rank in the top three nationally in both receiving yards and touchdown catches, and he’ll need another big game here.

However, there is an argument to be made that the Cougars’ defense is the best unit on the field.

This is a defense that ranks in the top 50 in both pass success and finishing drives. Meanwhile, TCU is outside the top 80 in finishing drives, which could be huge when trying to cover this big spread.

On offense, Houston’s key to success will be to run the football, chew clock and keep the Horned Frogs’ high-powered attack of the field. We have seen other teams do this against TCU.

UCF rushed for 289 yards in Week 3, which was followed a week later by SMU rolling up 238 yards on the ground against the Frogs.