9 p.m. ET: Michigan State at Oregon (-23.5, 52)

Michigan State (3-2) has lost two straight and just got rolled by Ohio State 38-7, failing to cover as 23.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, Oregon (4-0, ranked 6th) just took down UCLA 34-13 but failed to cover as 24-point road favorites. This line opened with Oregon listed as a 24-point home favorite. The public expects an Oregon blowout win and cover and isn’t afraid of laying the big points. However, despite 61% of bets taking Oregon we’ve seen the Ducks fall from -24 to -23.5. Some books are even hinting at a further drop down to -23. Why would the oddsmakers drop the spread to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already laying the points with Oregon to begin with? Because respected money has gone against the grain and scooped up Michigan State plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in their favor.

Michigan State is only receiving 39% of spread bets but 45% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in a nationally televised late-night showdown on FOX. The Spartans have buy-low value as an unranked road dog against a sell-high ranked home favorite. Michigan State also has correlative betting value, as they are getting roughly two-dozen points in a low total game (52), as the fewer amount of expected points makes it harder for the favorite to cover the big number. The Spartans are in an ultimate buy-low spot having lost two straight and just gotten blown out. Meanwhile, Oregon might be in a “lookahead” fade spot as they host Ohio State next week. In terms of the total, it has remained relatively stagnant at 52, with some shops inching down to 51.5. This movement (or lack thereof) is notable because 76% of bets are taking the over, yet it has remained the same or even slightly fallen. This indicates a sharp line freeze or some reverse line movement on a lower scoring game.

9 p.m. ET: Syracuse at UNLV (-6, 56)

Syracuse (3-1) just brushed aside Holy Cross 42-14 but failed to cover as 30.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, UNLV (4-0, ranked 25th) just crushed Fresno State 59-14, easily covering as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with UNLV listed as low as a 3-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw a big line move toward UNLV as the Rebels were steamed up from -3 to -6.5. However, over the past 24-hours we’ve seen some buy-low Syracuse buyback hit the market, dropping Syracuse from +6.5 to +6. Some shops are even inching down to +5.5. This buyback is notable because the public is laying the points with UNLV (57% of spread bets), yet the game-day movement is ticking back down toward the contrarian road dog Orange. Game-day movement is especially notable because it takes place when limits are raised and the biggest bets come in.

Syracuse has “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 43% of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the night that also happens to be nationally televised on FSI. The Orange have buy-low value as an unranked dog against a sell-high ranked opponent. Syracuse is also a “dog who can score” system match (33.8 PPG), thereby keeping pace or possibly backdoor covering. Syracuse QB Kyle McCord is averaging 364.8 passing yards per game, the most in college football, and will now face a UNLV pass defense that ranks 88th in the country. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 57.5 to 56. The under is receiving 28% of bets but 41% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.