Buccaneers @ Falcons (-1.5)
Buccaneers (3-1)
Tampa Bay (+7) upset Detroit 2016 in its only road game.
Bucs scored 37-20-33 points in wins; they lost 26-7 to Denver.
Bucs are 6-3 ATS in last nine NFC South road games.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: over 2-2

Bucs are 8-1 ATS last nine games as a road underdog.
QB Mayfield is 45-49 as an NFL starter, 13-10 with Buccaneers.
Tampa Bay is 11-8-2 in last 21 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Under is 17-9 in last 26 Tampa Bay road games.
Bucs are 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.

Falcons (2-2)
Atlanta’s two wins are by 1-2 points.
Falcons scored 22-26 points in wins, 10-17 in losses.
Falcons are 10-38 on third down, opponents 27-57.
Team total: under 2-2
Opponents’ team total: under 3-1

Atlanta is 4-15-1 ATS last 20 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 1-7 ATS last eight games coming off a win.
Last 2+ years, Atlanta is 4-3 ATS in NFC South home games.
New QB Cousins is 79-72-2 as an NFL starter.
Under is 3-1 in their games this year.
Raheem Morris is 23-40 as NFL head coach; he was coach of the Buccaneers from 2009-11.

Tampa Bay won seven of last nine series games.
Buccaneers are 4-1 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Atlanta.

The Buccaneers were getting 3 when this thing first opened, but that has been bet down a bit. The total has also come down about a point, opening at 44.5 and now sitting at 43.5 at most sportsbooks. And while I don’t have a strong preference when it comes to the side or total in this game, I tend to agree with the way these odds are moving.

It’s just very hard to ignore how disappointing this Falcons team has been. Atlanta could very well be 0-4 right now, but Philadelphia gifted the team a win in Week 2. The Falcons then found a way to beat the Saints last week despite the fact that they didn’t score a single offensive touchdown. New Orleans probably wins that game if not for a muffed punt that turned into a touchdown for Atlanta. The Saints also committed a pass interference that led to the game-winning field goal for Younghoe Koo, so it’s not like Raheem Morris’ team drove down the field in impressive fashion.

As things stand, the Falcons are just 21st in the league in EPA per play (-0.048) and 23rd in EPA per play allowed (0.028). This is a below average team on both sides of the ball right now. The Buccaneers haven’t been much better defensively, as they’re just 21st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.021). But they would probably be a little higher if Vita Vea played against the Broncos in Week 3. Also, Tampa Bay has been far superior on offense, as the team is ninth in EPA per play (0.069) and eighth when it comes to Dropback EPA per play (0.133).

Overall, it’s just hard not to have a little more trust in Baker Mayfield than Kirk Cousins right now, which might be a little surprising given what we’ve seen in both of their careers. But Mayfield is PFF’s 10th-ranked passer this year, and Cousins is just 23rd in those rankings. Mayfield is also a little more aggressive in looking to make plays. So, Tampa Bay’s offense is the more reliable group here, and the defense is probably a little better too.

The Buccaneers are also 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 meetings between these teams, and Tampa Bay is also 8-4 ATS as a road underdog under Todd Bowles.

As far as the total goes, neither one of these offenses has been explosive enough to warrant an Over play. And both teams have defensive-minded head coaches, as well as offensive coordinators that value the running games.

NFL teams getting <50% of bets are 38-22-2 (63%) ATS this season.

43% of bets are on Atlanta Falcons -1.5 vs. Bucs on Thursday Night Football at BetMGM

Most bet (tickets) Falcons-Buccaneers players to score anytime touchdown at BetMGM

1. Mike Evans (TB) +135

2. TB Defense/Special Teams +800

3. Chris Godwin (TB) +150

4. Bijan Robinson (Atl) -135

Most bet (tickets) Falcons-Buccaneers player props at BetMGM

1. Bucky Irving over 43.5 rushing yards

2. Bijan Robinson over 26.5 receiving yards

3. Tyler Allgeier over 33.5 rushing yards

4. Kirk Cousins under 1.5 passing TD

Updated Falcons-Buccaneers betting at BetMGM

Atlanta Falcons open -2.5, now -1.5
▪️ 43% of bets, 49% of money on Falcons

Total open 42.5, now 44
▪️ 56% of bets, 45% of money on Over

Buccaneers open +120, now +105
▪️ 78% of bets, 60% of money on Buccaneers

Under Trends for Bucs vs. Falcons:

Under is 8-0 in Bucs' road games 1st half of season since '22, avg total pts: 33.
Under is 9-1 when TB outgains opp by 100+ yds in prev game.