MLB favorites/underdogs split 1-1 on final day of regular season w/ home/road & Over/Unders also 1-1; faves finished 1,333-1,002 (57.1%) w/ 51 PKs; home teams led 1,244-1,135 (52.3%) w/ 7 neutral; Unders finished slightly ahead at 1,147-1,140-97 (50.2%)

The 2024 MLB Playoffs begin with the first pitch of the AL Wild Card series between the Tigers and Astros. The best-of-three series kicks off on Tuesday October 1 at 2:30 p.m. ET with a matchup between presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Astros ace Framber Valdez for the home team.

Detroit’s extremely improbable playoff run has gotten a lot of buzz and a lot of headlines. Per FanGraphs, they had a playoff probability of 0.2% as late as August 11, but went on a 31-13 run over the final 44 games to punch a ticket to the postseason. Even as of September 12, they were just 7.5% to be in this position.

The Astros were under 50% to make it as of August 5 at 44.5% per FanGraphs, but here they are with their fourth straight AL West title and seventh in the last eight seasons. The only time they didn’t win was the COVID-shortened 2020 season with just 60 games played. This year’s bunch was actually 10 games back on June 18 and started the season 12 games under .500 through June 18, but finished 15 games over and locked up another division crown.

All games will be played at Minute Maid Park in Houston, as they are the lone division winner playing in this round.

There are two main keys to this series, one for each team. The first is Skubal, who gets the call in Game 1 and is a real weapon for an underdog like Detroit. He pitched to a 2.39 ERA with a 2.70 xERA and a 2.49 FIP over 192 innings in the regular season. It was a big bump from his career high set back in 2021 of 149.1 innings and 111.1 more innings than what he threw last season, but he was just as good, if not better in some respects in the second half. He’s a true ace and a potential difference maker for Detroit in this series.

The other is Yordan Alvarez, who missed the final week of the season with knee pain. He posted a .308/.392/.567 slash line and hit 35 homers while posting a career-best 15% K%. Houston did get Kyle Tucker back for 77 plate appearances late in the season and he slashed .365/.453/.587 with four homers in that span, so his return has been crucial. Alvarez is the big bopper and in the playoff run environment, a player like him becomes even more important because such a large percentage of runs come via the long ball.

If Alvarez is out, or at least severely compromised or limited to pinch-hitting duties, that would certainly help the Tigers. Their bullpen also has the chance to be a game-changer. Detroit finished fifth in bullpen ERA and 11th in bullpen FIP, though they have been third with a 2.40 ERA and seventh with a 3.24 FIP over the last 30 days. Manager A.J. Hinch, who led the Astros to the 2017 World Series and was 481-329 in the regular season and 28-22 in the postseason, will rely heavily on that group.

In fact, we may very well see openers in both Games 2 and 3, if Game 3 is required. Skubal and Jack Flaherty set the standard for the rotation, but Flaherty will be pitching in the NLDS for the Dodgers. Reese Olson recently returned and he posted a 3.53 ERA with a 3.51 xERA and a 3.17 FIP, but he only made three starts and didn’t go longer than four innings. I think it’s pretty clear he will be the Game 2 starter or bulk guy. Casey Mize worked solely as a reliever in his last two regular season appearances. Keider Montero had a 4.76 ERA with a 5.15 FIP over 16 starts and three relief efforts. So, the Tigers are going to try to leverage the pen and limit everybody’s exposure.

It will be a more traditional setup for the Astros with Valdez in Game 1. One of Yusei Kikuchi or Hunter Brown will pitch Game 2 and the one who doesn’t would be in line for Game 3. Given that the Tigers were 26th in wOBA at .280 and posted an 82 wRC+, I would guess Kikuchi gets the call. He had a 2.70 ERA and a 3.07 FIP in 10 starts after the All-Star Break. Brown made 30 starts with a 3.49 ERA, 3.27 xERA, and a 3.58 FIP.

The Astros posted a .261/.322/.419 slash with a .321 wOBA and a 111 wRC+ in the second half, meaning they were 11% above league average. The Tigers only posted a .234/.300/.382 slash with a .298 wOBA and a 95 wRC+, meaning they were 5% below league average. Even if we look at the last 30 days, when the Tigers were making their huge push, they were a below average offense with a 94 wRC+ and also struck out nearly 27% of the time.

Valdez, Kikuchi, and Brown all have major strikeout upside and nearly every reliever does nowadays, so the question will center around how many balls in play the Tigers can actually generate. Furthermore, they only hit 21 homers over the last 30 days of the regular season, which ranked tied for 26th. The home run is the great equalizer in the postseason and Detroit’s limited power production could be a major hindrance.

The toughest part of this handicap is Skubal because he can be very dominant and put the Tigers in a position where they only need to win one additional game to advance. However, as great as Skubal is, the Astros are in the -130s for Game 1 and would be a sizable dog in Game 2 and Game 3. As great as Skubal is, the Astros were a top-five offense against lefties most of the season and were in the second half with a .338 wOBA and a 123 wRC+.

Houston to win in two games is +190 (“Series Outcome” at DraftKings under Wild Card Props; or “Series Handicap” Astros -1.5 Games). I think that’s the way to look here. The Tigers are a great story and perhaps they keep writing pages and adding chapters, but the Astros are just too strong for them and Detroit’s main weakness (making contact) is exposed badly here.

The Royals are in the MLB playoffs for the third time since 1985. The other two times, they lost in the World Series and then won the World Series the following year. They have a long way to go if they want to do that this season, beginning with the best-of-three Wild Card series against the Orioles.

Baltimore won five more games during the regular season and did not have the luxury of playing the White Sox 13 times. You can only play the teams on the schedule and the Royals did what they needed to do against the historically bad White Sox by going 12-1. Much has been made of the spoils of playing the Pale Hose and it is undoubtedly a big reason why both the Royals and Tigers made the playoffs.

The Royals were 74-75 against everybody else, but this is a team that still had a +48 run differential in those other 149 games and has one of the deepest top threes in the rotation among AL playoff hopefuls. Alas, people are punishing the Royals and the Orioles are a big favorite, even though they’ve been a 34-38 team over the last 72 games since tying a high-water mark at 24 games over .500 on July 7.

All games will be played in Baltimore at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, as they had the better record.

Admittedly, I expected the Royals to drop off at multiple junctures throughout the season. They are carried on offense by Bobby Witt Jr. and there are some home/road splits I will discuss shortly. Nine players for the Royals had at least 300 plate appearances. Four of them had a wRC+ over 100, meaning four of them were above average hitters. Michael Massey finished with a 102. Vinnie Pasquantino, who hasn’t played since August 29 when he injured his thumb, had a 108. Salvador Perez had a 115. And Bobby Witt Jr. had a 168.

Witt was 68% better than league average and no other regular contributor was over 15% better. The Royals ranked 28th in BB%, so their offense is dependent on batted ball luck. But, they do put a lot of balls in play as well, as they had the third-lowest K% at 19.4% and were one of three teams under 20%. All three of them (Padres, Astros) are in the playoffs. So, the Royals will put a lot of balls in play and they are the poster child for playing into the playoff variance that MLB brings.

The other thing is that the Royals stole 134 bases. Only the Guardians, Phillies, and Dodgers stole more among playoff teams. The Orioles only stole 98, so the running game could be an important factor in this series.

Unfortunately for KC, power is a major factor in almost every playoff series and the Orioles hit 235 homers. Only the Yankees hit more. Baltimore’s offense is stacked. They, too, had nine players with at least 300 plate appearances. Every single one of them graded above average, ranging from Adley Rutschman at 104 to Gunnar Henderson at 155. Henderson and Witt are stars, but the supporting cast is way stronger for the O’s.

But the Royals may very well have the pitching edge. Ragans, the Game 1 starter, hung a 3.14 ERA with a 3.27 xERA and a 2.99 FIP in his 186.1 innings of work. Lugo, the wily vet and Game 2 starter, had a 3.00 ERA with a 3.72 xERA and a 3.25 FIP. And Wacha, who would be called upon in Game 3 if necessary, had a 3.35 ERA with a 4.05 xERA and a 3.65 FIP in his 166.2 innings.

On some level, I would argue that the Royals are built way better for the grind of 162 than the rush of 3, 5, or 7 games. Lugo and Wacha are great innings eaters and have vastly exceeded expectations with their numbers. But, I wouldn’t really look at them as traditional playoff starters, as they’re both pitch-to-contact types of guys. However, the Royals are also the best defensive team in the league per Statcast’s Outs Above Average metric and also led the league in FanGraphs’ all-encompassing Def metric for defensive value.

The Orioles finished 21st in OAA and 19th in Def. In the playoffs, where games are typically tighter and the run environment can be lowered, perhaps the defensive strength of KC provides the underdog a big lift. Ragans, Lugo, and Wacha combined to allow just 48 home runs out of 2,283 batters faced.

Burnes, the Game 1 starter for the O’s, had a 2.92 ERA with a 3.27 xERA and a 3.55 FIP. Unfortunately, Grayson Rodriguez is done for the year, so the O’s would go with Trade Deadline acquisition Zach Eflin in Game 2 in all likelihood, as he had a 2.60 ERA with a 3.94 FIP in nine starts after the trade with the Rays. I would guess Albert Suarez gets the Game 3 call after he had a 3.70 ERA with a 4.14 xERA and a 4.24 FIP. The depth advantage in the SP department very much falls with the Royals.

The wild card in the Wild Card series is the bullpen. I would not call either bullpen good, but the Royals did seem to figure it out to a higher degree as the season went along. Over the last 30 days, the KC pen had a 2.68 ERA with a 2.72 FIP in 94 innings. Meanwhile, the Orioles pen was 29th with a 5.34 ERA, though they did have a 3.67 FIP, so there was a lot of bad luck in the mix.

All in all, of the two AL Wild Card series, this one has higher upset potential in my mind. That being said, the Royals were the worst offense in baseball by a huge margin in the month of September. They posted a .203/.275/.302 slash with a .257 wOBA and a 61 wRC+. Maybe they can flip the switch. Maybe they can’t.

The Mets and Brewers played each other during the final weekend of the regular season and will run it back with higher stakes this week in the NL Wild Card Round. Well, the stakes were high regardless for the Mets, who needed a win on Monday in a rescheduled doubleheader against the Braves to clinch a playoff berth. The Brewers clinched a while ago, as they ran away with the NL Central.

So, Milwaukee has been able to set everything up just the way they want it, while the Mets had to move some things around and play right up until the day before this series gets underway. The celebration for clinching a berth was short and subdued, as it was all about business and getting to Milwaukee for a good night’s sleep.

This is actually just the second playoff appearance for the Mets since 2016 and they haven’t won a playoff series since 2015 when they lost to the Royals in the World Series. The Brewers have not won a playoff series since 2018, so a streak will end on either Wednesday or Thursday.

All games will be played in Milwaukee at American Family Field, as they are the only division winner in the NL Wild Card Round.

Normally being the No. 6 seed would be a disadvantage, but I don’t think it is here for the Mets. The prize for being the No. 5 seed is the Padres, who had an identical record to the Brewers, but sure do feel significantly more dangerous. That’s not to say that Milwaukee is a walk in the park by any means, as the Brewers have an excellent offense and a very strong bullpen.

A lot of Milwaukee’s offensive upside comes from drawing walks. Their 9.7% BB% was second to the Yankees. They also finished second with 217 stolen bases. Only the Nationals (223) had more and only the Reds (207) had more than 178. So, the Brewers really leveraged their speed and athleticism well on the basepaths and also remained patient in the batter’s box.

As a pitching staff, the Mets had the third-highest BB% against at 9.6%, so that will be a hugely important part of this series. The Mets bullpen did have a 27.8% K%, but also the third-highest BB% at 10.7%. There are a few holes in the lineup where the Brewers trade defense and speed for potent offense, so that will be something to follow. Also, Milwaukee lost Christian Yelich just after the All-Star Break and he was far and away the team’s best hitter with a 153 wRC+.

That said, 20-year-old rookie Jackson Chourio slashed .322/.354/.514 with a .371 wOBA and a 139 wRC+ in the second half after getting off to a rough start early in the season. This is a confident, versatile, very strong lineup, even if there aren’t household names.

The defensive part of the equation is hugely important. Outside of Game 1 starter Freddy Peralta, who had 200 strikeouts, the rest of the rotation pitches to a lot of contact. Peralta had a 3.68 ERA with a 3.88 xERA and a 4.16 FIP. Almost every starter had a lower ERA than FIP and xERA, a testament to Milwaukee’s defensive prowess. Aaron Civale had a 3.53 ERA with a 4.79 FIP in 14 starts and Tobias Myers had a 3.00 ERA with a 4.11 xERA and a 3.91 FIP in 138 innings.

All of them allowed a fair amount of home runs as well, which is what the Mets will be looking for in this series. While the Mets didn’t steal a ton of bags, they hit 207 homers as one of six teams to hit more than 200 dingers. Francisco Lindor hit 33 and would have been a very strong MVP candidate in a world without Shohei Ohtani. His 137 wRC+ led all Mets with at least 300 plate appearances, but Mark Vientos had a coming-out party with a 133 wRC+ and impending free agent Pete Alonso chipped in 34 bombs.

The x-factor in this series for the Mets just might be Francisco Alvarez. The Mets were 58-27 when he started a game this season and 65-35 when he appeared. He missed almost two months with an injury and the Mets really struggled in that span.

On the pitching side for New York, it hasn’t always been pretty, but it was in September, as they led the league in fWAR with 5.6 and collectively hung a 3.05 ERA with a 2.87 FIP. David Peterson won’t be able to start in this season, which is a bummer because he was the top dog in fWAR, but Jose Quintana and Sean Manaea will be among the listed starters and Luis Severino will likely get the ball in Game 1. He pitched great down the stretch.

Both bullpens performed at a top-five level in the final month of the season, but Milwaukee’s was decidedly stronger. I think these two teams are pretty evenly matched and we could get some close games, so the relievers may decide things. That’s especially true with Milwaukee’s patience at the plate.

All in all, I don’t know that the Brewers should be -135 for the series price, but I’m not rushing to back the Mets either. I also feel less strongly about the series total Over/Under in this one than I do in the two AL series.

MLB Playoffs Wild Card series odds at BetMGM

Tigers-Astros
▪️ HOU -185
▪️ DET +155

Royals-Orioles
▪️ BAL -185
▪️ KC +150

Padres-Braves
▪️ SD -175
▪️ ATL +150

Brewers-Mets
▪️ MIL -135
▪️ NYM +115

Updated odds to win National League at BetMGM

Dodgers +165
Phillies +200
Padres +475
Brewers +900
Mets +1000
Braves +1300

19% of money (most) is on Padres to win NL.