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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Men’s Tennis
Top Contenders
Carlos Alcaraz (+190)
Novak Djokovic (+275)
Jannik Sinner (+275)
This is the same group of contenders as every big tennis tournament. The new “Big Three” is responsible for the last eight Grand Slam titles. These three are surface-proof and are threats to win every time they step on a tennis court. That won’t be any different in Paris.
Alcaraz, who is representing Spain, won the French Open in June. That was an event played at this very venue, so he’ll come into this thing feeling like it’s his to lose. Alcaraz has the highest clay-court Elo rating of anybody in the men’s game right now, and his game is a perfect match for these conditions. Alcaraz is the fastest player on the planet, so it’s hard to get the ball by him on slower courts. He also has the ability to hit every shot in the book, but he’s especially strong when it comes to utilizing topspin. Combining that with his all-world baseline power and uncanny variety makes it understandable he’s the favorite.
Djokovic has had an up-and-down 2024 season, but he has won three majors at Roland Garros. The 24-time Grand Slam champion also happened to find his game at Wimbledon, looking as sharp as he has all year long. Djokovic might be 37 years old, but he keeps himself in tremendous shape. And his best level is capable of winning on any given day. Djokovic is precise with his serve; he’s one of the best returners of all time, and he’s arguably the most well-rounded baseline player in the history of the sport. Djokovic is also elite at the net. Not only does Djokovic have the game to win gold, but he also has the motivation. Nobody in the history of tennis has a better resume than Djokovic, but he has never won gold for Serbia. He’ll be eager to change that.
Sinner is the world No. 1 and has been the best player in tennis for most of 2024. And while clay-court success has eluded the Italian a bit, he has shown that he is very dangerous on this surface. Sinner nearly beat Alcaraz in the French Open semifinals, but he started to cramp up and really tailed off late in the match. That shouldn’t be much of a concern in best-of-three tennis. Sinner was actually one of the sharpest players on the ATP Tour early in the clay-court season, as he was able to serve through the conditions and bully people from the baseline. Sinner has also expanded his game to include some more spin, drop shots and net play. With that in mind, he’ll be very live to take home the gold here.
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07-21-24 08:56 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Rafael Nadal (10-1)
It’s entirely possible that people will write Nadal off after his opening-round loss to Zverev at the French Open. However, I think Nadal represents the best value on the board in this tournament. The Spaniard skipped Wimbledon to focus solely on clay-court tennis, and he has been doing everything he can to get his body right. Well, if he’s able to avoid a setback, that should do him wonders. As the 14-time French Open champion gets further and further from the hip injury that derailed his 2023 season — and the start of his 2024 season — he should look more like a top-10 player. That said, don’t write off the King of Clay.
Nadal, who won a gold medal in 2008, is 112-4 in his French Open career. He has just been unbeatable in this venue. I know Father Time is coming for the 38-year-old, but Nadal hasn’t demanded much from his body in recent months. It also doesn’t hurt that this is a best-of-three tournament. Physically, he should be able to handle a deep run in a tournament with shorter matches.
Nadal will just need to find a way to keep things together on his serve. He still has an impressive baseline game, where he now goes a bit bigger to find winners because he can’t regularly grind out long rallies anymore. He’s also capable of getting into his opponent’s service games quite frequently. So, if he can rack up holds, he’s going to be as tough of an out as anyone. Nadal is going to give this tournament absolutely everything he has left.
Realistically, the winner will probably come from the group of Alcaraz, Djokovic and Sinner. But I don’t like the odds enough to back any of them in a tournament that could get a little wonky. I’d rather take a shot here.
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07-21-24 08:56 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Paris Olympics Tennis – Men’s Draw Analysis
Quarter 1: A potential second-round meeting between Djokovic and Nadal would be tremendous. This year’s Olympic Games can use a blockbuster matchup like that. However, Nadal does have a tough opening-round meeting with Marton Fucsovics. There’s no guarantee he wins that, even if he does end up playing through this new hamstring injury. The rest of the draw is headlined by Matteo Arnaldi, Arthur Fils and Stefanos Tsitsipas. Arnaldi and Fils will battle in the first round, but both can make runs here. And Tsitsipas is a very dangerous clay-court player. He’s fully capable of winning this quarter if Djokovic doesn’t look sharper than he did at Wimbledon.
Quarter 2: Alexander Zverev’s quarter looks extremely manageable. He’ll face Jaume Munar in the first round, the winner of Tomas Machac and Zhizhen Zhang in Round 2, and then he’s likely looking at a meeting with Nicolas Jarry after that. I don’t see him losing to any of those players, and I also think he’d take care of whoever comes out of the other portion of the quarter. That includes Lorenzo Musetti, Gael Monfils, Jack Draper and Taylor Fritz. Of course, Fritz beat Zverev at Wimbledon. But that was on grass. Zverev is a far superior player on clay.
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07-26-24 08:08 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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It feels a little weird to be getting a second-round matchup between legends like Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, but that’s exactly what we’ll be treated to at the Paris Olympics on Monday, July 29th. Unfortunately, Father Time is coming for both of these players, but he has a bigger bone to pick with the 38-year-old Nadal. Many believe this will be the final time that the Spaniard will compete at singles at Roland Garros, where he has won 14 French Open titles. Nadal has tried to downplay any talk of this being “the last dance” between him and Djokovic, as he insists that he’d be open to playing in 2025 if his health allows it. However, it certainly feels like this could be the last matchup between these longtime rivals. With that in mind, the 60th career head-to-head battle between these two should be fun to watch, even if Djokovic is a heavy betting favorite.
Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic Odds
Moneyline: Djokovic -700, Nadal +475
Spread: Djokovic -4.5 Games (-149), Nadal +4.5 Games (+105)
Total: Over 20.5 Games (-111), Under 20.5 Games (-128)
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07-29-24 08:14 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Only one year separates Nadal and Djokovic, but you wouldn’t know it based on looking at them — or their results over the last few years. Nadal’s body hasn’t held up nearly as well as Djokovic’s, which is why the Serbian is a massive favorite here. When these two met at Roland Garros in the quarterfinals of the 2022 French Open, Djokovic was only a -250 favorite. Of course, Nadal ended up winning that match 6-2, 4-6, 6-2, 7-6 (4) and going on to claim his 14th French Open title. But the Spaniard has continued to deteriorate since then, while Djokovic remains a top-five player in the world. The past few weeks have encapsulated that rather perfectly.
Djokovic went under the knife for meniscus surgery in early June, but he was hardly bothered by it. Just a few weeks later, the Serbian reached the Wimbledon final. Meanwhile, Nadal took the grass-court season off to focus on his Olympics preparation. That looked like it was going to pay off, as the Spaniard made a clay-court final in Bastad a little over a week ago. But as that tournament went on, Nadal got worse and worse. His Performance Rating of 8.1 (from TennisViz and Tennis Data Innovations) in his opening-round match against Leo Borg was quite strong. Had Nadal continued to play like that, he might have had a real shot at winning this event. But that number dipped as he played more matches, even though he continued to find ways to win. The Spaniard also picked up a hamstring injury that left his status for the Olympic Games in doubt. Djokovic continues to shrug things off, but Nadal hasn’t been able to do the same. Every time Nadal has a little momentum, something gets in the way.
Looking at this match, it’s hard to imagine a scenario in which Nadal hangs around. The 38-year-old barely beat Marton Fucsovics in his opening-round match, and his serve has been extremely worrisome lately. Nadal’s hold percentage is down at 77.0% since the start of the 2024 season. In his prime, Nadal was in the mid to high 80’s there. Unless he has an out-of-body serving experience against Djokovic, this could get ugly. Djokovic is one of the best returners in the history of the sport.
Nadal’s baseline game isn’t where it needs to be either. The Spaniard is no longer capable of simply grinding opponents down and ending rallies with his vicious topspin forehand. Instead, he looks to rip shots earlier in rallies to preserve his legs. The problem with that is that Nadal has been spraying more unforced errors than usual. That’s not going to cut it against Djokovic, who will likely go into “lockdown mode” and focus on finding the court as much as possible. If he keeps rallies alive long enough, this version of Nadal will eventually make mistakes.
Overall, this just feels like a match that could get out of hand. It wouldn’t shock me if Nadal finds a way to win a set, but that’d likely be 7-5 or 7-6. What would shock me is if Djokovic doesn’t win at least one lopsided set. Djokovic is nowhere near the peak of his powers either, but he was stronger in Wimbledon than he was at any point in the 2024 season. He’s capable of hitting his spots as a server and handling his business in racking up holds. And I think there will be at least one set in this match in which he’ll pounce all over Nadal’s serve. That’s why I’d suggest laying the games with Djokovic, who is 30-29 in 59 career meetings with Nadal and has a chance to stamp a winning record against his rival once and for all.
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07-29-24 08:14 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Mariano Navone vs. Lorenzo Musetti
This match isn’t going to attract casual tennis fans quite as much as the meeting between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. However, this is one that the tennis sickos are going to be excited about. Musetti is up to 16th in the live ATP rankings and you’d be hard pressed to find 10 players that are better than him right now. The 22-year-old has always had a world of talent, as he can punish shots from both wings, gets good topspin on his forehand and also has a beautiful backhand slice. He’s also rock solid as both a server and a returner. Musetti is just finally putting things together mentally, and the timing is perfect after a horrendous start to the 2024 season. My only concern is that Musetti could be extremely fatigued, and a matchup with Navone on clay isn’t great for that.
Musetti has played as much tennis as anyone lately. He had a lot of success in the short grass-court season, which is obviously a great thing. But at the same time, that’s a portion of the season in which most players are getting some solid rest. He was going deep into tournaments and even went to the Wimbledon semifinals. Then, Musetti went all the way to the final in Umag, where he lost a long, physical three-set match against Francisco Cerundolo on Saturday. He then had to quickly hop on a flight for a Sunday match against Gael Monfils. Fortunately for Musetti, he earned a quick 6-1, 6-4 victory there. But he has just put a ton of mileage on his body, and he was a little banged up at Wimbledon. At some point, I think that’s going to catch up to him — even though he’s in peak form right now.
If Musetti is a drop short of 100% health, Navone will give him a match. This is a player that is 15-9 on clay over the last 52 weeks. He’s really, really good on this surface, where he combines a grinding mentality with the ability to also play aggressively. Navone is great at finding angles on the court, and he can be a terror to compete against when he’s feeling it from the forehand side. Navone is also one of the best clay-court returners in the world, so he’s going to put a lot of pressure on Musetti’s serve.
All in all, I don’t think it’s smart to rule out Musetti winning. He’s the superior player and is favored for a reason. But I’d be surprised if the Italian wins this in straight sets. There’s a dip in level coming and Navone can bring it out of him.
Bet: Navone +1.5 Sets (-150 – 1.5 units)
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07-30-24 08:08 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Marta Kostyuk vs. Donna Vekic
Vekic has played some incredible tennis over the last couple of weeks. She’s coming off a run to the Wimbledon semifinals, where she nearly beat Jasmine Paolini to book a spot in the final. That came directly after a runner-up finish at Bad Homburg. Vekic also beat Coco Gauff in straight sets in her last match, and she hasn’t yet dropped a set at the Olympics. That makes it pretty easy to understand why she’s a favorite, and I wouldn’t blame anybody that wants to bet her. Vekic actually beat Kostyuk when the two met at the French Open a few months ago. However, I can’t quite shake the fact that I think Kostyuk is a better player.
The last match at Roland Garros was a 7-5, 6-4 win for Vekic, so it really could have gone either way. And I think that if these two played 10 matches against one another, Kostyuk would win either five or six. It’s really close to a 50-50, so I’m putting a small play on Kostyuk at plus-money odds.
Kostyuk actually went into the French Open on a poor run of form, so it wasn’t surprising to me that she was bounced pretty early. But Kostyuk is an absolute ball basher and can display flawless ball-striking when she’s confident. Well, straight-set wins over Lulu Sun and Clara Burel helped her build that confidence, and she then came through with a three-set win over Maria Sakkari last round. So, I think we’re seeing a much sharper version of the Ukrainian in Paris this time around. I also just like that Kostyuk’s break percentage is up at 37.0% in 2024. She has been relentless as a returner, which is only turned up a notch on slower clay. She’s going to constantly put pressure on Vekic’s serve.
It’s also supposed to be hot and humid at Roland Garros on Wednesday. That’s another difference between the French Open and the Olympics. It’s a lot hotter and grittier at this point in the summer. And Kostyuk should be able to deal with that a little better. Vekic had some issues physically later on in Wimbledon.
Bet: Kostyuk ML (+110)
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07-31-24 08:06 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Felix Auger Aliassime vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Alcaraz was able to erase a 5-2 second-set deficit to beat Tommy Paul in straight sets. The Spaniard came away with a 6-3, 7-6 (7) victory, but he was pushed hard and noted that he was a little drained from a tough week. Well, Alcaraz is going to need to find his legs quickly in order to advance to the final. I know I liked Casper Ruud to beat Auger Aliassime in the quarterfinals, but the Norwegian was a little off and the Canadian played a solid match. The reality is that Auger Aliassime is benefitting from the fact that the conditions at Roland Garros are a little quicker now than they were at the French Open. For a player with a big serve and straightforward power game, that’s absolutely massive. We have seen Auger Aliassime have a lot of success on quicker clay courts, and I think the small change in conditions will give the Canadian a chance to keep this close.
Alcaraz is undoubtedly one of the best returners in the world, but Auger Aliassime is locked in and should be able to rack up holds. Honestly, Ruud had no business even winning the second set against him, but Auger Aliassime played one sloppy service game and let him back into the match. I don’t think we’ll see a loss of focus from Auger Aliassime at all here. He knows the task at hand and he can’t afford any mental lapses.
Alcaraz did beat up on Auger Aliassime the last time they played, earning a 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 win at the French Open. Alcaraz has now won three matches in a row against Auger Aliassime. However, the Canadian has earned three wins against him and knows that he can compete when he’s playing his best tennis. Well, we have seen the very best of Auger Aliassime at the Olympics, which isn’t surprising considering how well he tends to play when competing for his country. He’s a different player when donning that Canada red. With that in mind, I’m rolling with Auger Aliassime to cover a 4.5-game spread. I think he can get to a tiebreaker here, which would then make the lift quite easy in the other set. But I’m also playing the Canadian to win a set. I just don’t think it’s crazy to believe that he can win a tiebreaker. Alcaraz is also fully capable of playing a sloppy set.
Bet: Auger Aliassime +4.5 Games (-110 – 2 units) + Auger Aliassime +1.5 Sets (+140)
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08-02-24 08:02 AM |
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