St Louis (56-54) @ Cubs (54-58)
Gibson is 1-1, 4.35 in his last four starts
Cardinals are 6-4 in his road starts.
over 10-3 last 13 starts
allowed run in first inning: 5-20
record in first 5 innings: 7-10-3
He is 1-4, 5.46 in six starts vs the Cubs.
Cardinals are 3-6 in last nine games.
Theyre 27-29 on road.
over 7-1 last eight games
scored run in first inning: 24-110
record in first 5 innings: 41-50-19
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-1.2-3
Taillon is 3-1, 198 in his last four home starts.
Chicago is 5-9 in his last 14 starts.
under 6-3 last nine starts.
allowed run in first inning: 4-18
record in first 5 innings: 9-8-1
He is 6-2, 3.45 in 15 starts vs St Louis.
Cubs are 5-2 in their last seven games.
Theyre 29-25 at home.
under 9-5 last 14 games
scored run in first inning: 23-112
record in first 5 innings: 44-50-18
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-2.1-5
Arizona (59-51) @ Pittsburgh (55-54)
Montgomery is 1-1, 11.57 in his last three starts.
Arizona is 5-1 in his last six starts.
over 8-3 last 11 starts
allowed run in first inning: 4-15
record in first 5 innings: 9-5-1
He is 1-3, 2.63 in four starts vs Pittsburgh
Arizona is 14-4 in its last 18 games.
Diamondbacks are 28-26 on road.
over 8-2 last ten games
scored run in first inning: 35-110
record in first 5 innings: 51-40-19
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-4
Keller is 1-0, 2.52 in his last four starts.
Pittsburgh is 12-2 in his last 14 starts.
over 5-1 last six
allowed run in first inning: 4-21
record in first 5 innings: 11-7-3
He is 1-0, 2.49 in four starts vs Arizona.
Pirates are 12-7 in their last 19 games.
Theyre 26-27 at home.
over 5-1 last six games
scored run in first inning: 21-109
record in first 5 innings: 46-43-20
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-3.2
Milwaukee (62-47) @ Washington (49-61)
Civale is 0-1, 5.14 in four starts for Milwaukee.
Brewers are 1-3 in his starts.
over 3-1
allowed run in first inning: 1-4
record in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
He gave up 2 runs in 5.2 IP, in his one start vs Washington
Brewers are 3-4 in their last seven games.
Theyre 31-26 on road.
over 5-1-1 last seven games
scored run in first inning: 29-109
record in first 5 innings: 50-44-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-4
Herz is 0-3, 5.40 in his last five starts.
Washington is 3-6 in his starts.
under 3-1 last four starts
allowed run in first inning: 1-9
record in first 5 innings: 4-4-1
He hasnt pitched against Milwaukee.
Nationals are 2-8 in last ten games.
Theyre 23-28 at home.
over 6-1 last seven games
scored run in first inning: 18-110
record in first 5 innings: 43-55-12
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-x-3.1
San Francisco (55-56) @ Cincinnati (52-57)
Harrison is 2-0, 1.06 in his last three starts.
Giants are 12-6 in his starts.
over 7-3 last ten starts
allowed run in first inning: 5-18
record in first 5 innings: 8-7-3
He is 1-0, 2.38 in two starts vs Cincinnati.
San Francisco is 6-1 in its last seven games.
Giants are 22-33 on road.
under 12-4 last 16 games
scored run in first inning: 25-111
record in first 5 innings: 46-49-16
bullpen IP last 3 days: x-x-x
Greene is 2-0, 0.33 in his last four starts.
Reds are 7-14 in his starts.
over 3-1 last four home starts
allowed run in first inning: 3-21
record in first 5 innings: 10-6-5
He allowed an unearned run in 5.1 IP, in his one start vs SF.
Reds are 5-4 in their last nine games.
Theyre 27-30 at home.
under 8-2 last ten games
scored run in first inning: 30-109
record in first 5 innings: 49-46-14
bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-x-4.2
Miami (40-70) @ Atlanta (60-49)
Tyler is 0-2, 4.76 in five starts.
Marlins are 2-3 in his starts.
over 3-1-1
allowed run in first inning: 3-5
record in first 5 innings: 2-3
He hasnt pitched against Atlanta
Marlins are 1-4 in their last five games.
Miami is 18-36 on road.
over 18-8-1 last 27 games.
scored run in first inning: 26-110
record in first 5 innings: 36-64-10
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-4
Holmes allowed a run in 5 IP in his first start (70 PT).
Atlanta is 0-1 in his starts.
over 1-0
allowed run in first inning: 0-1
record in first 5 innings: 1-0
This is his first start vs Miami
Braves are 6-1 in their last seven games.
Theyre 32-21 at home.
under 24-11 last 35 games
scored run in first inning: 29-109
record in first 5 innings: 51-43-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-3-2
Colorado (41-70) @ San Diego (58-52)
Gordon is 0-3, 8.81 in three starts.
Colorado is 0-3 in his starts.
over 2-1
allowed run in first inning: 1-3
record in first 5 innings: 0-3
He hasnt pitched against San Diego.
Rockies won their last three games.
Theyre 17-41 on road.
over 9-4 last 13 road games
scored run in first inning: 30-111
record in first 5 innings: 40-56-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-2
Perez is making his first start for the Padres.
He is 1-1, 4.98 in his last four starts.
Pittsburgh was 6-10 in his starts.
over 6-3 last nine starts
allowed run in first inning: 3-16
record in first 5 innings: 5-7-4
He is 2-3, 3.92 in seven starts vs Colorado.
Padres won nine of last 11 games.
Padres have lost five in a row against Colorado.
Theyre 28-29 at home.
over 6-2 last eight games
scored run in first inning: 30-111
record in first 5 innings: 48-48-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-3.1-4
Baltimore (65-46) @ Cleveland (67-42)
Eflin gave up 3 runs in 6 IP in his first start for Orioles.
Orioles are 1-0 in his starts.
over 1-0
allowed run in first inning: 6-20
record in first 5 innings: 9-9-2
He gave up six runs in 3 IP, in his one start vs Cleveland.
Baltimore is 4-3 in its last seven games.
Orioles are 31-21 on road.
over 14-2 last 16 games
scored run in first inning: 29-111
record in first 5 innings: 59-41-11
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3.2-3
bullpen game
Cleveland is 8-2 in its last ten games.
Guardians are 35-15 at home.
under 12-5 last 17 games
scored run in first inning: 29-109
record in first 5 innings: 52-42-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-4.2
Kansas City (62-49) @ Detroit (52-59)
Lorenzen is making his first start for the Royals.
He was 0-2, 9.28 in his last three starts for Texas.
Texas was 5-13 in his starts.
under 3-1 last four starts
allowed run in first inning: 4-18
record in first 5 innings: 9-5-4
He is 2-1, 2.30 in 7 games (2 starts) vs Detroit.
He pitched for the Tigers last year.
Royals won their last five games.
Royals are 26-27 on road
over 6-3 last nine games
scored run in first inning: 31-111
record in first 5 innings: 53-42-16
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-1-3.1
bullpen game
Detroit is 3-9 in its last 12 games.
Tigers are 25-30 at home.
over 9-5 last 14 games
scored run in first inning: 34-111
record in first 5 innings: 43-50-18
bullpen IP last 3 days: x-2-2.2
Toronto (51-59) @ Bronx (65-46)
Berrios is 1-2, 5.17 in his last three starts.
Toronto is 2-6 in his last eight road starts.
over 7-1 last eight
allowed run in first inning: 5-22
record in first 5 innings: 8-12-2
He is 4-7, 4.96 in 13 starts vs New York.
Toronto lost three of its last five games.
Blue Jays are 25-31 on road.
over 29-6 last 35 games
scored run in first inning: 27-110
record in first 5 innings: 46-51-13
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-x-4.1
Rodon is 2-0, 2.03 in his last two starts.
New York is 5-3 in his home starts.
over 14-3 last 17 starts
allowed run in first inning: 8-22
record in first 5 innings: 11-9-2
He is 0-2, 11.00 in two starts vs Toronto TY.
New York won five of its last six games.
Theyre 27-24 at home.
over 27-9 last 36 games
scored run in first inning: 38-111
record in first 5 innings: 56-42-13
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-x-6.1
Boston (58-50) @ Texas (52-58)
Houck is 1-1, 4.00 in his last three starts.
Boston is 9-3 in his last 12 starts.
over 7-3 last 10
allowed run in first inning: 3-21
record in first 5 innings: 11-7-3
He is starts vs Texas.
Red Sox are 5-8 since All-Star break.
Theyre 31-22 on road.
over 10-2 last 12 games
scored run in first inning: 34-108
record in first 5 innings: 58-39-11
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-x-3.2
Texas hasnt named a starter.
Rangers lost six of last seven games.
Texas is 8-3 in last 11 home games.
over 8-1 last nine games
scored run in first inning: 37-110
record in first 5 innings: 47-46-17
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.2-5
White Sox (27-85) @ Minnesota (60-48)
Crochet is 0-2, 3.86 in his last six starts.
Chicago lost his last seven starts.
under 16-6
allowed run in first inning: 3-22
record in first 5 innings: 8-9-5
He is 0-1, 7.00 in two starts vs Minnesota TY.
White Sox have lost 18 games in a row.
Chicago is 10-45 on road.
over 7-2 last nine games
scored run in first inning: 22-112
record in first 5 innings: 43-54-15
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-x-4.1
Ober is 3-1, 2.67 in his last four starts.
Twins are 6-2 in his last eight starts.
under 8-3 last 11
allowed run in first inning: 8-20
record in first 5 innings: 11-8-1
He is 1-1, 5.25 in two starts vs Chicago TY.
Twins are 6-5 in their last 11 games.
Twins are 30-21 at home.
over 9-3 last 12 games.
scored run in first inning: 30-108
record in first 5 innings: 48-47-13
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-2.2
Tampa Bay (55-54) @ Houston (57-52)
Littell is 1-1, 3.37 in his last three starts.
Rays are 5-5 in his road starts.
over 6-3 last nine
allowed run in first inning: 7-21
record in first 5 innings: 7-8-6
He gave up 2 runs in 5 IP, in his one start vs Houston
Tampa Bay is 11-8 in its last 19 games.
Rays are 25-25 on road.
over 5-2 last seven road games.
scored run in first inning: 28-109
record in first 5 innings: 39-53-17
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-x-2.2
Blanco is 0-2, 5.63 in his last three starts.
Astros are 14-6 in his starts.
over 4-2 last six starts
allowed run in first inning: 7-20
record in first 5 innings: 10-7-3
This is his first start vs Tampa Bay.
Houston lost three of last five games.
Astros are 31-25 at home.
under 6-3 last nine home games
scored run in first inning: 33-109
record in first 5 innings: 50-46-13
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-x-3.1
NY Mets (58-51) @ LA Angels (47-63)
Peterson is 2-1, 3.94 in his last three starts.
Mets are 8-2 in his starts.
over 7-3
allowed run in first inning: 0-10
record in first 5 innings: 7-2-1
He is 1-0, 1.86 in 2 games (1 start) vs Anaheim
New York is 16-7 in its last 23 games.
Mets are 28-22 on road.
under 4-2 last six road games
scored run in first inning: 27-109
record in first 5 innings: 48-44-17
bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-x-3
Soriano is 2-0, 4.41 in his last three starts.
Angels won his last three home starts.
under 3-1 last four
allowed run in first inning: 4-17
record in first 5 innings: 8-8-1
This is his first start against the Mets.
Angels lost six of last eight games.
Theyre 24-35 at home.
over 9-7 last 16 home games
scored run in first inning: 24-110
record in first 5 innings: 36-62-12
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4-4
Los Angeles (63-47) @ Oakland (46-65)
Flaherty is making his first start for the Dodgers.
He was 6-1, 1.99 in his last 8 starts for Detroit.
Tigers were 10-8 in his starts.
under 5-3 last eight starts
allowed run in first inning: 4-18
record in first 5 innings: 9-5-4
He is 0-2, 10.97 in two starts vs Oakland.
Dodgers are 1-5 in last six games.
Dodgers are 2-11 in last 13 road games.
over 6-2 last eight games.
scored run in first inning: 38-110
record in first 5 innings: 54-45-11
bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.1-x-4
Spence is 2-0, 2.38 in his last two starts.
As are 4-9 in his starts.
over 7-2 last nine starts
allowed run in first inning: 3-13
record in first 5 innings: 4-8-1
He hasnt pitched against Los Angeles.
As are 16-9 in last 25 games.
Oakland is 9-4 in last 13 home games.
under 4-2 last six games
scored run in first inning: 23-111
record in first 5 innings: 42-64-5
bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-x-3
Philadelphia (65-44) @ Seattle (58-53)
Allard allowed 3 runs in 4 IP in his first 24 start.
Phillies are 0-1 in his starts.
under 1-0
allowed run in first inning: 0-1
record in first 5 innings: 0-0-1
He is 1-4, 8.65 in six starts vs Seattle.
Phillies are 4-12 in their last 16 games.
Theyre 27-23 on road.
over 4-0 last four games
scored run in first inning: 40-109
record in first 5 innings: 64-34-11
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.1-x-6.1
Miller is 2-0, 1.80 in his last four starts.
Seattle is 7-4 in his last 11 starts.
over 10-5 last 15
allowed run in first inning: 3-21
record in first 5 innings: 10-7-4
He hasnt pitched against the Phillies.
Seattle won five of last seven games.
Mariners are 32-23 at home.
over 6-1 last seven games
scored run in first inning: 31-111
record in first 5 innings: 51-44-16
bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2.2-2
Umpires
StL-Chi- Over is 10-6 in Wegner games.
Az-Pitt- Under is 12-8 in Valentine games.
Mil-Wsh- Underdogs are 10-11 in Beck games.
SF-Cin- Home favorites are 8-3 in Whitson games.
Mia-Atl- Jones is a rookie ump; no trends yet.
Col-SD- Home favorites are 11-4 in Tomlinson games.
KC-Det- Favorites are 10-7 in Barber games.
Tor-NYY- Home favorites are 11-4 in Diaz games
Balt-Clev- Over is 14-7 in Visconti games
Bos-Tex- Under is 13-6 in Reyburn games.
Chi-Minn- Road underdogs are 6-6 in Marquez games.
TB-Hst- Under is 15-7 in Additon games.
NYM-LAA- Under is 8-4 in Conroy games.
LA-As- Under is 13-6 in Tosi games.
Phil-Sea- Home team is 12-7 in Wills games.
The Atlanta Braves have posted a 25.9% strikeout rate over the last month, a 13.8% swinging strike rate, and a 29.5% chase rate.
This makes them a prime candidate to chase K props against, and Saturday is no different when Kyle Tyler takes the hill for Miami.
The 27-year-old has been Over 3.5 strikeouts in three of his five starts at the major league level this season, but with a modest 18.5% punch-out rate. But that does not concern me given the low bar we need to clear.
Atlanta has allowed each of the last 10 right-handed starting pitchers to eclipse 3.5 K against them and 14 of the last 15.
Long story short, Tyler may have below-average strikeout potential, but this line should probably be 4.5.
Trend: Zach Eflin is 17-5 (+11.01 units) in the last five seasons as a road pick em/short favorite between -110 to -140 line range
System Match: PLAY BALTIMORE (-120 at CLE)
Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 when PHI has been a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total in PHI-SEA (o/u at 8)
(901) ST LOUIS (56-54) at (902) CHICAGO-NL (54-58)
Trend: STL more Under during the day (20-28 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(903) MILWAUKEE (62-47) at (904) WASHINGTON (49-61)
Trend: MIL not as good vs. NL East/West (13-20, -12.39 units)
System Match: FADE MILWAUKEE (-120 at WSH)
(905) ARIZONA (59-51) at (906) PITTSBURGH (55-54)
Trend: AZ slight Over at night (43-30 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(909) MIAMI (40-70) at (910) ATLANTA (60-49)
Trend: ATL leads the head-to-head season series 7-1 (including 5-0 at home)
System Match: PLAY ATLANTA (-245 vs MIA)
(911) COLORADO (41-70) at (912) SAN DIEGO (59-52)
Trend: SD trending Over in divisional play (22-13 O/U)
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(917) BOSTON (58-50) at (918) TEXAS (52-58)
Trend: TEX more Under at home (17-34 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(919) CHICAGO-AL (27-85) at (920) MINNESOTA (60-48)
Trend: CWS awful on the road (10-45, -29.85 units)
System Match: FADE CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+170 at MIN)
(921) BALTIMORE (65-46) at (922) CLEVELAND (67-42)
Trend: Over the total is 5-1 when CLE has been a home underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8.5)
(925) LOS ANGELES-NL (63-47) at (926) OAKLAND (46-65)
Trend: OAK slight Under at night (24-37 O/U)
System Match: PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 8)
(927) NEW YORK-NL (58-51) at (928) LOS ANGELES-AL (47-63)
Trend: LAA not as good at home (24-35, -9.08 units)
System Match: FADE LA ANGELS (+105 vs NYM)
(929) PHILADELPHIA (65-44) at (930) SEATTLE (58-53)
Trend: Over the total is 9-3-1 when PHI has been a road underdog this season
System Match: PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 8)