1:10 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians (-125, 8)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Mariners (44-32) took the opener 8-5, cashing as +125 road dogs. Then the Guardians (45-26) bounced back with an 8-0 win last night, taking care of business as -150 home favorites. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Mariners hand the ball to righty Luis Castillo (6-7, 3.32 ERA) and the Guardians counter with lefty Logan Allen (7-3, 5.30 ERA). This line opened with Seattle listed as a -115 road favorite and Cleveland a -105 home dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even 50/50 moneyline split we’ve seen the Guardians move from a -105 dog to a -125 favorite. In other words, Cleveland has received sharp “dog to favorite” line movement. The Guardians are only receiving 48% of moneyline bets but 56% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Guardians have the better bats, hitting .243 with 354 runs scored compared to the Mariners hitting .220 with only 296 runs scored. Seattle is 17-20 on the road. Cleveland is 22-9 at home. Allen has a 2.45 ERA in two June starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. Castillo has a 3.76 ERA on the road compared to 2.96 at home. The Mariners are hitting .211 against lefties this season, dead last in MLB. Cleveland is 31-14 (69%) with a 20% ROI as a favorite this season, the best chalk team in MLB.

1:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins (-135, 7.5)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Twins (41-33) won the opener 7-6, taking care of business as -180 home favorites. Then the Rays (35-39) clawed back with a 3-2 win in extra innings last night, cashing as +145 road dogs. In this afternoon’s series finale, the Rays go with righty Zach Littell (2-5, 4.24 ERA) and the Twins turn to fellow righty Simeon Woods Richardson (2-1, 3.29 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -120 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Twins laying short chalk at home, steaming Minnesota up from -120 to -135. The Twins are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 239-150 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Favorites off a loss with a winning record playing an opponent with a losing record are 72-39 (65%) with a 5% ROI. The Twins are 32-17 (65%) with a 9% ROI as a favorite, the 7th-best chalk team in MLB. Minnesota has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Minnesota has the better offense, hitting .244 with 85 homers and 343 runs scored compared to Tampa Bay hitting .232 with only 61 homers and 288 runs scored. Littell has a 7.71 ERA in three June starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 14 innings pitched. Minnesota is 8-3 in Woods Richardson’s 11 starts this season.

4:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees (-150, 8.5)

This is the rubber match of a three-game series. The Yankees (51-25) took the opener 4-2, cashing as -135 home favorites. Then the Orioles (48-25) won last night’s rematch 7-6 in extra innings, cashing as +125 road dogs. In this late afternoon series finale, the Orioles tap lefty Cole Irvin (6-3, 3.03 ERA) and the Yankees counter with righty Luis Gil (9-1, 2.03 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -130 home favorite and Baltimore a +120 road dog. Sharps have laid the chalk with the Bronx Bombers, steaming the Yankees up from -130 to -150. New York is receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both wiseguys and the betting public in addition to a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 239-150 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. The Yankees are 40-19 (68%) with a 14% ROI as a favorite, the second best chalk team in MLB. Ryan Additon, the home plate ump, is 58% to the home team historically. Gil has a 2.16 ERA in three June starts, allowing only 4 earned runs over 16.2 innings pitched. New York is 9-0 in Gil’s last nine starts. He has a 1.58 ERA at home compared to 2.48 on the road. When two elite teams face off (both with a win percentage of .600 or greater), the favorite is 29-21 (58%) with a 4% ROI.