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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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NBA Lagniappe 2/01
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (505) ORLANDO vs. (506) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA against the spread.
Play On - Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite
(36-9 over the last 5 seasons.) (80.0%, +26.1 units. Rating=4*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-1 -0.1 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (505) ORLANDO vs. (506) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA against the spread.
Play On - Any team (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more, off an upset loss as a home favorite
(39-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.0%, +26.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -1.1 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (501) WASHINGTON vs. (502) DETROIT
Favoring: WASHINGTON against the spread.
Play On - Favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%)
(42-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (76.4%, +27.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-3 -0.3 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (503) PORTLAND vs. (504) MEMPHIS
Favoring: MEMPHIS against the spread.
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after 2 or more consecutive unders, a good team (+3 to +7 PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential)
(69-28 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +38.2 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (7-2 +4.8 units).
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02-01-23 08:20 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (507) BROOKLYN vs. (508) BOSTON
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%)
(57-20 over the last 5 seasons.) (74.0%, +35 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-2 +0.8 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (505) ORLANDO vs. (506) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHILADELPHIA) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, good team, winning 60-75% of their games on the season
(112-51 since 1996.) (68.7%, +55.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (14-5 +8.5 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (511) GOLDEN STATE vs. (512) MINNESOTA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
(117-54 since 1996.) (68.4%, +57.6 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-3 +5.7 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (511) GOLDEN STATE vs. (512) MINNESOTA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days
(60-23 since 1996.) (72.3%, +34.7 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-4 +4.6 units).
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02-01-23 08:22 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (513) OKLAHOMA CITY vs. (514) HOUSTON
Favoring: OKLAHOMA CITY on the first half line.
Play Against - Home underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (HOUSTON) - off an upset win as an underdog against opponent off a home loss
(47-15 over the last 5 seasons.) (75.8%, +30.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-1 +2.9 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (505) ORLANDO vs. (506) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA on the first half line.
Play On - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7or more, off a upset loss as a favorite
(58-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (72.5%, +33.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (3-1 +1.9 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (505) ORLANDO vs. (506) PHILADELPHIA
Favoring: PHILADELPHIA on the first half line.
Play On - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (PHILADELPHIA) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite, off a upset loss as a favorite
(109-52 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.7%, +51.8 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (6-3 +2.7 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (501) WASHINGTON vs. (502) DETROIT
Favoring: WASHINGTON on the first half line.
Play On - Road favorites of 2 to 5.5 points vs. the first half line (WASHINGTON) - off a road win, in February games
(37-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.1%, +24.9 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
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02-01-23 08:22 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (509) SACRAMENTO vs. (510) SAN ANTONIO
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (SAN ANTONIO) - off a home loss, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season
(102-45 since 1996.) (69.4%, +52.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (16-10 +5 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (509) SACRAMENTO vs. (510) SAN ANTONIO
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 116 (SAN ANTONIO) - after being beaten by the spread by 18 or more points total in their last three games, a bad team, winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season
(46-15 since 1996.) (75.4%, +29.5 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (8-9 -1.9 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (509) SACRAMENTO vs. (510) SAN ANTONIO
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 111 (SAN ANTONIO) - an average offensive team (108-114 PPG) against a poor defensive team (114-118 PPG) after 42+ games
(125-60 since 1996.) (67.6%, +59 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (10-4 +5.6 units).
Wednesday, 02/01/2023 (511) GOLDEN STATE vs. (512) MINNESOTA
Favoring: Under on the total.
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 105 (MINNESOTA) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team
(118-57 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.4%, +55.3 units. Rating=3*)
The situation's record this season is: (9-7 +1.3 units).
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02-01-23 08:23 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Looking at the Eastern Conference standings, this matchup between the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets should easily be the game of the night.
Unfortunately, with Kevin Durant and Ben Simmons out for the Nets and the Celtics having their two best players, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, both healthy, this game could get out of hand. The Celtics are eight-point home favorites looking to add to their league-leading 36-15 overall and 19-6 home record.
Kyrie Irving going back to Boston is always a treat for the Celtics faithful. He will have a tough task keeping this game competitive on his own against one of the league’s best defenses.
Are the Brooklyn Nets finally figuring out how to play without Durant? They have won four of their last six games without the Slim Reaper after losing four consecutive games. In 11 games this season without Durant, the Nets have a 5-6 record as their Defensive Rating has dropped from 112.4 to 119.0.
Not only is Durant out tonight, but so are Simmons and T.J. Warren. Missing those three is a lot of production during the recent Nets winning streak. Now with a shorthanded team on the road against the best team in the league, it is going to be extremely difficult to stay competitive.
It will be up to Irving, who spent two years with the Celtics before forcing his way out and onto the Nets. The Celtics certainly haven’t welcomed Irving back home with open arms, which has effected his play. Last game in Boston, Irving finished with 19 points while shooting 8-of-18 from the field. He deferred to Durant, who scored a team-high 37 points, which isn’t an option tonight.
Irving has stepped up the most in Durant’s absence. In the nine games he has played without Durant, Irving is averaging 31.4 points and 7.2 assists while attempting 23 field goals per game. He has a 32.5% usage rate, so it will have to be the Irving show with a sprinkle of Nicolas Claxton dominating the paint.
After leading the league last season in Defensive Rating, the Celtics currently rank fourth this season (110.9), entering tonight’s game. They continue to also rank inside the top 10 in scoring defense as opponents are shooting 46.7% from the field. The game plan for the Celtics will be simple. Stop Irving and let the others beat you. A tough spot for the Nets against an elite Celtics defense.
The Nets have certainly struggled recently, but so have the Celtics. They lost three consecutive games before beating the Lakers in overtime in their most recent game. Not having Marcus Smart has hurt the Celtics on both ends of the court. He currently leads the team in both assists and steals this season.
Smart will continue to be out tonight, while Robert Williams is questionable with an ankle injury. The Celtics have already played 34 games without Williams this season. With the Nets not having a true center, it is not a big deal if Williams is unable to go. Al Horford and Grant Williams can hold it down.
Tatum and Brown are one of the best duos in the league. They are both averaging career-highs in points, rebounds and field goal percentage. Combined, they are averaging 58.1 points per game paired with a 64.4% usage rate. This duo is in a great spot playing at home against a depleted Nets team.
With Smart out, Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White have both stepped up in their own ways. Brogdon had a slow start in his first year with the Celtics, but has scored double-digit points in each of his last 12 games, while averaging 18.4 per game over that span. White has been more of a rollercoaster, but does provide upside as the starting point guard with Smart out of the lineup.
An eight-point spread is a lot of points, but in their last matchup with Durant out a couple weeks ago, the Celtics won by 11 points. Expect them to rely on their defense to finish off the weakened Nets again.
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02-01-23 08:30 AM |
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