let's wrap this up on a good note
GL

Recent Form
A disappointing evening for Watford away at West Ham saw the board get rid of their third manager of the campaign in Nigel Pearson.

That leaves Hayden Mullins as the temporary manager for their final two games against a devastating Man City side and Arsenal, and with Aston Villa and Bournemouth just three points behind them in 18th, relegation could very likely be an option.

The Citizens will be feeling hurt by their recent defeat to the Gunners at Wembley in the FA Cup semi-final, but they’ve still won seven of their 10 matches since the enforced mid-season break, beating all of Burnley, Newcastle and Brighton 5-0, champions Liverpool 4-0 and Arsenal 3-0, so big results are still in their DNA.

Furthermore, with their last-16 Champions League match with Real Madrid just over two weeks away, they’ll want to grow their confidence for that and you’d imagine if Pep Guardiola had to pick one team to play at the minute the Hornets would be very high up on that list having thrashed them 8-0 back in September.

The hosts have a respectable record at Vicarage Road since the start of December, going W6-D3-L2 from their 11 matches as they beat the likes of Man Utd, Wolves and Liverpool.

However, their recent form is what worries us, as other than victories over a woeful Norwich side and an unmotivated Newcastle outfit they’ve lost five of their other six winless matches since the beginning of March and that doesn’t look like changing this week.

Man City -1 Handicap
City have won their last 12 matches across all competitions against Watford, including their two most recent by an 14-0 aggregate scoreline, while the three times Guardiola has travelled to this stadium they have won each of them by an aggregate scoreline of 13-1.

In fact, the hosts have lost eight of their nine meetings here with both the Citizens and the Reds since the start of 2016/17 in the league alone, with over half of them being by at least two clear strikes and that looks the way to go again for us.

Raheem Sterling To Score Anytime
The go to men at the moment for the visitors in the scoring department have been both Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus.

However, the England international winger has slightly outdone his fellow team-mate with a hattrick in their last road game at Brighton, while he has seven goals from his four appearances in all tournaments against Watford since start 2017/18, netting in each.

This is a must win game for Aston Villa if they are to keep their slim hopes of avoiding relegation alive, when they welcome Arsenal on Tuesday night. The problem for Dean Smith’s team is that they are facing a Gunners team that are finishing the season in a rich vein of form after accounting for both Liverpool and Manchester City in the last week.

Recent Form
It was a confidence boosting week for the Gunners as Mikel Arteta got the better of Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool to keep their slim Europa League hopes alive, and out manoeuvred his old boss Pep Guardiola in the FA Cup semi-final, which will likely be their best chance at European qualification next season.

Aston Villa had their hopes shattered on their visit to Goodison Park last week, as Theo Walcott’s late header earned the hosts a point, and leave the midlands club on the brink of relegation, meaning this is a must win game for them.

While their record of W6-D3-L9 at Villa Park isn’t abysmal, only Southampton and Norwich have a worse record on home soil and all six of those wins have come against bottom half opposition, which is definitely not encouraging enough to back an upset.

What’s more, their struggles aren’t just at one end of the pitch as while they’ve stuttered in front of goal with no real talisman to rely on.

They’ve managed just five goals across their last 10 outings now, and at the other end only the Canaries have a worse defensive record, so we can’t get behind the home win.

Arsenal To Beat Aston Villa
Arsenal are undoubtedly improved under Arteta and having won just two of their opening 15 away matches, the Gunners have now won two of their last three, including an impressive 2-0 victory over Champions League chasing Wolves.

They did however lose to North London rivals Spurs on their last road trip in a game that highlighted the need for some new personnel, though the Lilywhites are far tougher than Villa and the visitors should have enough about them.

Over 2.5 Goals
These two sides sit in the top half for goals per game this season with an average of 2.82 between them. This should be a far cry from a cagey affair, with a draw doing nothing for either side so we’d be surprised if the hosts just sit back.

That should leave this game pretty open, and if the head-to-heads are anything to go by, we shouldn’t be short of goals. 13 of the last 15 meetings in all competitions this decade have seen a minimum of three goals, with Arsenal scoring a whopping 21 by themselves across the past six.

The Gunners have won seven on the bounce against the Villains now, including the reverse fixture this season despite having Ainsley Maitland-Niles sent off when they were a goal down in the first half, and we’re inclined to see this as the end of the road this season for Villa.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal | Tuesday 21st July 2020

Arsenal face a quick turnaround from their FA Cup heroics when they face-off against relegation threatened Aston Villa on Tuesday, looking to record three wins in a row to finish the last week of the Premier League season strongly.

Mikel Arteta’s men put in their best performance of the season at Wembley on Saturday, making a top class side in Manchester City look very average for the entirety of the game, a world away from their display against the same opposition just a few weeks ago.

Wins over the top two in the last week will have given the Spanish manager a tremendous deal of confidence that his methods are working and that, with some new signings during the summer, the Gunners can push on next season and back into top four contention.

For Aston Villa meanwhile, time is quickly running out on their top flight journey unless they can pull off a big couple of results and hope that Watford and Bournemouth produce nothing in their respective games.

There’s been no lack of effort or desire from the Birmingham-based club throughout the season but the chances of them joining their city rivals back in the Championship next season have been growing by the game. Whilst the team have improved defensively, the lack of creativity at the top of the pitch in the second half of the campaign, teamed with injuries to key players at points during the season has been the club’s downfall.

Grealish to step up?
One man that has had the weight of pressure on his shoulders is star man Jack Grealish. Should Villa go down, it’s almost certain that the attacking midfielder will depart for one of the top four but if he’s going to go down, he’ll go down trying.

We saw in Villa’s last match against Everton that Grealish was very much in the mood to take the game by the scruff of the neck, registering five shots – his joint highest game total of the season. In this match, Grealish is 13/8 with Paddy Power to have three or more shots which appeals given Villa’s desperate situation.

The home side simply have to attack here and should be getting a few shots away. With so much of the play of Dean Smith’s men coming through Grealish, he’ll likely have chances to test Arsenal goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez who’s been a busy man in recent games.

Something else I’ve spotted with Grealish this season is his tendency for a card when the frustration, brought about by Villa’s poor results and the fact he’s the most fouled player in the league, tends to boil over.

Six of the Villa skipper's eight cards this season have come in the second half and extraordinarily, four of those six have been in stoppage time. Instead therefore of backing the 3/1 best price on the 24 year-old to pick up a card during the 90 minutes, I’m more tempted by the bigger 22/5 odds with BetVictor’s bet builder of him receiving a booking in the second 45 minutes.

All eight of the Villa captain’s cards have come in game where his side has lost or drawn, so if Villa are heading for another game without the three points they simply must get here, dissent could show.

The pressure is ramped up on Manchester United when they welcome West Ham in a must win game if they are to overhaul Leicester and secure Champions League football next season. Contrastingly the pressure is off the Hammers after they secured their Premier League status with a 3-1 win over Watford, while United will be looking to get back to winning ways after being dumped out of the FA Cup by Chelsea

Recent Form
Sunday brought an end to Man Utd’s 19 game unbeaten run as Chelsea eased past them 3-1 thanks to some horrendous goalkeeping from David de Gea.

They won’t let that deflate them too much though as following Leicester’s defeat at Spurs they’re now in the driving seat for Champions League football next term.

West Ham, on the other hand, were given a huge boost after beating Watford on Friday night to secure their top-flight status for yet another season.

Who else but the man of the moment Michail Antonio broke the deadlock in the sixth minute to take his tally to seven goals in his last five outings, while goals from Tomas Soucek and Declan Rice pulled them clear. However, with safety now effectively a certainty we’d be worried if they switch off.

Half-Time/Full-Time: Man Utd/Man Utd
The Red Devils have won eight of their last 11 unbeaten outings in the league, including a notable victory over their local rivals Man City at Old Trafford just before the enforced mid-season break.

In fact, they’ve won by at least two clear strikes in four of their last five here, as they were ahead at the break in each of those five and we’d be surprised if that didn’t repeat that feat in this one.

Furthermore, at all venues against the bottom-six they’ve done the W/W in the HT/FT market in each of the last five and this should be a mere formality for the men in red.

By contrast, the Hammers have lost 12 of their last 13 against the current top half in the league, including L/L in half their last six against the top six outfits and they really don’t look capable of holding off the likes of Marcus Rashford, Anthony Martial and Bruno Fernandes.

Chelsea and Liverpool face-off at Anfield Wednesday night. This game is a little tough to handicap as Liverpool has already won the league, and looked pretty average over the past month.

Technically Chelsea isn’t safely in the top four yet, but it feels very likely given how Leicester City has been playing. The Foxes face off against Manchester United at Old Trafford this weekend, which will likely be a Man U victory.

Liverpool
Prior to the break, Liverpool were on a historic run with 100 points in their sights. Ever since they returned, the magic has really left the field. Over the course of the season, Liverpool had a positive goal differential of +1.34 goals/game. Over the past month, their goal differential is just +0.43 goals/game.

Advanced metrics only say +0.58, so it’s not like they have been getting unlucky. They just look like a team that have already won the title. That extra push in the final 15 minutes that would come to bite their opponents has gone missing. I think Liverpool would be happy with a draw here.

Chelsea
Chelsea have been in the top four for most of the season. However, over the past 10 games or so, Leicester City have really collapsed. The most likely scenario is that Man United will beat both West Ham and Leicester City, and Chelsea will be safe in the top four regardless of what they do in their final two league games. Chelsea is also in the FA Cup Final, which is another variable for Frank Lampard to navigate.

Chelsea has been a bit unfortunate from an xG perspective, both over the length of the season and as of late. Their season long goal differential is 15 goals, but their xG differential is 33. This is also true over the past month, with an actual goal differential of 3.0 vs. xG differential of 8.0 goals. This could come down to finishing ability, but it is likely to regress at some point.

Obviously Chelsea would prefer to win this game, but it might not feel like they need it due to Leicester’s current form. The motivation factors are tough to read, but I would bet the draw here.

Liverpool have dropped more points in the five games since becoming Premier League champions (8 – W2-D1-L2) than they had in their previous 40 matches in the competition (7 – W37-D2-L1).

Genoa vs Inter Milan | Saturday 25th July 2020, 1:30

As the Serie A conclusion draws nearer to its close, Italy’s oldest active club have three games left to secure their place in next season’s top flight. Davide Nicola’s hosts currently sit four points ahead of Lecce but they have arguably the tougher fixtures to come.

Indeed, Genoa welcome an Inter Milan side on Saturday who at this stage are unlikely to take the title race to the wire, but they can fight it out with Atalanta for runners-up.

Genoa are coming into this one off the back of two home victories against fellow strugglers, Lecce and SPAL. Unfortunately, they’ve lost seven out of eight home games against sides in the top half and in those games they’ve conceded twice or more in all – not a record you want when you’re playing host to the division’s second top goalscorers on their travels.

Antonio Conte and his Inter side certainly have the upper hand here and all the statistics point to a dominating victory for the Nerazzurri. Inter are unbeaten away from home since the restart and are also unbeaten away from home against every side they’ve played in the bottom half.

Inter have been slightly inconsistent recently though, in the two games they’ve drawn since the return, they took the lead before conceding and as a result dropping four extra points. If even those two games could’ve seen Inter hold out for wins, the title race would’ve been enthralling with just three games to go.

Nevertheless, Champions League football is secured for next season and they will want to finish the campaign on a high note, starting by brushing aside Genoa with relative ease.

Key stats
Genoa:

Commit on average 16.1 fouls per game when playing at home (second most).
Receive on average 13.3 fouls per game when playing at home.
Have seen 2+ cards in 6/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/8 occasions.
Have scored in 8/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
Have conceded in 8/8 home games against sides currently in the top half.
Inter Milan:

Commit on average 15.8 fouls per game when playing away (most in the league).
Receive on average 11.9 fouls per game when playing away.
Have seen 2+ cards in 9/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 9/9 occasions.
Have scored in 9/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
Have conceded in 5/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
Key facts:

Inter Milan have won their last THREE league games against Genoa by an aggregate of 13-0.
Genoa have won their last TWO home games – they last won THREE in a row back in 2018.
Inter have collected more points away from home this season than any other side in Serie A.
Inter have scored at least FOUR in their last THREE games against Genoa in all competitions.
Inter’s Roberto Gagliardini has scored FIVE goals in SEVEN appearances against Genoa – more than any other opponent.
Antonio Conte is unbeaten in his SEVEN previous clashes with Genoa in Serie A (W4 D3).
Analysis
Inter have utilised the 3-5-2 formation recently and they’ve been racking up the corner count. Since the return of football post-lockdown, Genoa have faced two of the top seven at home and have seen their opponents have corner counts of 8 and 9 against Napoli and Juventus respectively.

Inter have collected more points away from home this season than any other side and only Atalanta have scored more goals than them. Given that the Nerazzurri have scored at least two goals in every away game since the restart, they’ve scored at least four in their last few meetings with Genoa and they’ve won their last three against the hosts, I’d fancy Inter to win and score at least two.

The final matchday in the Prem is upon us, and with one -- maybe two -- Champions League spots in play, two relegation spots still to be decided and a potential disaster scenario for one Jose Mourinho, the day will certainly not lack drama.

Ten games will kick off all at the same time, but only five really matter in deciding key spots for next season. Here are those five games broken down in descending order of importance.

5. Tottenham Hotspur vs. Crystal Palace (at Selhurst Park)

I’m bending the rules a little bit for this fixture because it’s not as important as meets the eye.

However, depending on the conclusion of the FA Cup Final on August 1, whichever team is left in seventh place could be in for a rude awakening. Should Arsenal knock off Chelsea at Wembley, the seventh-place team would no longer qualify for the Europa League.

And wouldn’t you know it, Arsenal’s chief rivals are that team sitting in a quite precarious position.

On paper, this should be a very easy match for Mourinho’s men, who have defeated Palace in eight of the last 10 meetings. And since Matchday 30, Spurs have accumulated the third-most points in the league, while Palace have been a distant 19th, only managing one win out of eight.

Spurs have also grabbed 11 wins out of 19 against the bottom half of the table this campaign and have lost straight up (SU) on only three occasions.

However, Palace hasn’t once won at home against a top-half opponent this season. With virtually nothing to play for, Palace won’t care enough to steal points away from Spurs.

4. Arsenal vs. Watford (at The Emirates)

Let’s be clear about one thing: This game doesn’t matter for Arsenal.

All the focus should justifiably be on the FA Cup Final next week for Mikel Arteta & Co., but this might be too good of a spot to pass up on Arsenal.

Against the bottom four at home in the last four campaigns, the Gunners have gone 13-1-2. Plus, you’ll have to harken back to the 2010-11 season to find the last time Arsenal failed to win on the final matchday of the season.

Additionally, Arsenal carries a two-match home winning streak against the Hornets -- who sit in the relegation zone on goal difference -- and are 3-1-1 in their last five SU against Watford.

Watford comes into this match having sacked their manager and needing a victory and then some to guarantee safety. Tactically speaking, Watford is going to have to go for it Sunday, leaving a lackluster defense with the second-worst goal differential in the EPL wide open against a potent Arsenal attack.

Combine those stats with the fact that Watford have only won twice on the road this season (against Bournemouth and Norwich) and Arsenal is left as the only play.

3. West Ham vs. Aston Villa (at London Stadium)

West Ham is safe, Villa is in danger.

However, if results go as I expect, Villa could be in a very dangerous spot. Villa and Watford are tied on points, with Villa carrying a -26 goal differential and Watford carrying a -27 GD.

Ultimately, the 18th position, and final relegation spot, might come down to who can hold the score line the closest against stronger opposition.

I lean with West Ham as a side in this match, but it likely won’t be a play for me. The Hammers have never lost at home against bottom-four opposition across the last three seasons, accumulating nine wins and two draws in those 11 matches.

Where I do have some conviction is with the total in this match. If you can find a total of 2.5, I like the over. West Ham is 11-7 on 2.5 goal totals at home, and of their 18 completed ties only four have seen both legs finish under 2.5

2. Leicester City vs. Manchester United (at King Power Stadium)

What a season this could prove to be for Leicester.

At the midway point of the season, Leicester sat in second place, nine points clear of falling out of a Champions League spot and 11 points clear of Man U, then in eighth place.

Since then, Leicester has been the 12th-best team in the Prem, gathering a measly 23 points in 19 matches. Now they need to win -- or draw and have Chelsea lose -- to climb back into the fourth and final Champions League spot. And Leicester will have to do it without James Maddison, Ben Chilwell and Caglar Soyuncu.

Even turning a blind eye to all of Leicester’s struggles in the second half, it’s objectively challenging to bet against United, a team that hasn’t recorded a straight-up loss in their last 13 matches.

Plus, United is surprisingly better against top competition on the road this year, as four of six losses away from Old Trafford have come against bottom-half teams. Against Leicester, United has not logged a SU loss since September 2014.

If you’re asking me for some conviction, I’ll play United on the GL at -0.5 for a plus-money payout ( 125 at South Point as of this writing). But if you’re a little less convinced, it may not hurt to sprinkle half your bet on the Draw ML and half your bet on the Man U ML, both at plus money.

1. Chelsea vs. Wolverhampton (at Stamford Bridge)

I’ll label this fixture as the best of the day solely because both teams desperately need to win.

In a world where Leicester defeats United and Chelsea loses to Wolves, Chelsea would fall out of a Champions League spot.

Anything but a victory for Wolves could see them fall into seventh -- assuming Tottenham takes care of business against Palace -- and be at the mercy of Arsenal to determine their place in Europe next season.

It’s a very tough fixture to handicap on the side, which is why I’m staying away.

Instead I’ll play the total. Of the 78 home-and-home ties this season that have seen at least one leg go over 3.5 goals, only 13 have seen both legs go over 3.5.

The last match between these two sides produced seven goals, and while you lose if the game lands on three -- because the system would technically still apply – I lean toward the under here.

Since the restart, Wolves have only seen one fixture go over 2.5 goals and although Chelsea tends to be a good over bet, I could see this being a very intense, cagey match with only a few goals.

Napoli vs Sassuolo | Saturday 25th July 2020, 20:45

Atalanta understandably hog the headlines when football fans talk about Serie A’s great entertainers. However, there’s a new kid on the block that might just provide punters with even more exhilarating, end-to-end action in Italy. Step forward, Sassuolo…

The Neroverdi have established themselves as a top-flight club in recent seasons and registered a respectable mid-table finish in 2018/19. The Emilia-Romagna outfit were expected to regress back into the depths of the relegation dogfight this term although Roberto De Zerbi’s attack-minded side continue to punch well above their weight.

With three rounds of Serie A still to play, Sassuolo remarkably find themselves comfortably perched inside the top-half. Only the top five teams in the division have scored more goals than De Zerbi’s troops, with matches (particularly post-lockdown) proving thrilling affairs.

No top-flight team in Italy has seen more goals per-game than Sassuolo’s showdowns following the league’s resumption. Neroverdi encounters are averaging a whopping 4.40 goals across their past 10 encounters, all of which have delivered in the Both Teams To Score column and nine have broken the Over 2.5 Goals barrier.

A further six fixtures surpassed the Over 3.5 Goals line, whilst three matches ended in sensational 3-3 draws. Those 10 tussles have averaged 3.05 Expected Goals (xG), with Sassuolo scoring and competing in contests with Inter, Milan, Juventus, Atalanta and Lazio during that same sample, suggesting they won’t be perturbed by a trip to the San Paolo.

Hosts Napoli have registered a solitary success in four outings, the most recent of which was a surprise 2-1 defeat to Parma, who had previously lost six of their last seven. The high of winning the Coppa Italia is wearing thin and the Partenopei arguably have little left to play for having secured their passage into Europe next season via their domestic cup triumph.

Nevertheless, you would expect Gennaro Gattuso to demand certain standards from the home side here, who are aided by the return from suspension of top goalscorer Arkadiusz Milik, whilst Dries Mertens is closing in on full fitness. With Jose Callejon and Lorenzo Insigne also in tandem, the Naples outfit aren’t short of attacking threats on Saturday.

Matches involving the Partenopei have been enjoyable under Gattuso with Napoli returning to their familiar 4-3-3. Twelve of the team’s past 15 fixtures have seen both sides score, as have six of their seven when welcoming top-half teams to the San Paolo. Meanwhile, seven of their nine outings since lockdown rewarded BTTS and Over 2.5 Goals backers.

Not only will Aston Villa fans be backing their team to secure the points against West Ham on Sunday, but they will be quietly supporting both Arsenal and Everton in their respective games with Watford and Bournemouth. Villa sit just outside the relegation zone on points difference ahead of Watford, with Bournemouth a further three points adrift, however Dean Smith will have one thing on his mind come kick-off and that will be all three points.

Recent Form
David Moyes had said that West Ham needed to ‘promise less, deliver more’, and it would appear that message has been taken on board as they’ve produced two wins from three unbeaten games.

However, their stalemate at Old Trafford last time out leaves them safe from the drop, so there could potentially be a drop off in standards here.

We certainly wouldn’t expect them to repeat performances like the 4-0 and 3-1 wins over Norwich and Watford just prior to that latest result.

The visitors have the bit between their teeth at present and also possess two wins from three unbeaten games, most notably overcoming Arsenal last time out after Mikel Arteta’s men had just downed Liverpool and Man City.

Those three points have taken them above the Hornets and outside the relegation zone for the first time since February, and they’ll enter the final day with greater belief than a Bournemouth side clinging on by their nails and a Watford team that have just sacked a proven survivor in head coach Nigel Pearson.

Although West Ham have seen an average of 2.95 goals per game this season and Villa 2.86, with so much at stake for one side any notion of swashbuckling attacking displays should be hit on the head, at least as far as the early stages are concerned.

Indeed, Villa have kept things tighter in recent outings as six of their last seven have featured under 2.5 goals, while they’ve only lost the first half once in nine outings since the restart as the match was goalless at that point in over half of these.

Half-Time Draw
Villa’s marginally better goal difference is all that separates them from Watford heading into the final day, so results elsewhere could well have an impact on their approach as the fixture wears on.

With that in mind, we wouldn’t be entirely comfortable backing a low-scoring affair, as no doubt Dean Smith will receive word in the dugout should Watford take a lead at Arsenal and subsequently push his own side into being more adventurous.

West Ham hold an identical W3-D5-L1 record to Villa at half time over their last nine, while they’ve been level at the break in 10 of 20 fixtures now. In fact, excluding the top five in the table, the Hammers have lost the first half just once in 15 matches, drawing at that point in four of the last seven.

Meanwhile, excluding the same bracket of opposition, Villa have drawn four of six unbeaten first halves, while the reverse of this fixture back in September finished goalless.

Keep in mind 6 of the 10 Final Match Day Fixtures went over 4 goals last season
GL

The top four race is wide open heading into the final day, with Manchester United, Chelsea and Leicester all fighting four two spots. While a draw could be enough for both these sides to qualify, that would rely heavily on Chelsea losing at home to Wolves so there’s no doubt the hosts will be going all out for the win.

Recent Form
Going back to early February, the Foxes were 14 points clear of Man United after 25 games and top four seemed firmly in their grasp, though a starkly contrasting run of results has seen the Red Devils jump up into third, and on form alone you’d expect the 13-time champions to come up with the goods in this one.

Leicester have won just three of their last 13 matches and in order to qualify they may need to do something they haven’t managed all season – beat one of the top six.

They’ve gone D4-L5 in such matches and managed just five goals across those games, with three coming against a woeful Chelsea defence and United will be much harder to break down.

While the hosts have won just three times over the last 13 gameweeks, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men are unbeaten in that time (W8-D5), though a draw last time out against West Ham has applied much more pressure on them than they necessarily needed.

While they can only beat what’s in front of them, it should be noted that the highest placed side that they’ve faced in their last six matches has been Southampton, with whom they played out a 2-2 draw at Old Trafford.

They’re on a run of three consecutive away wins for the first time this season, though with those games coming against relegation battling Brighton, Aston Villa and a Palace side currently on their worst run for nearly three seasons, Brenden Rodgers’ men won’t be too faded by that record.

Under 2.5 Goals
Leicester have seen ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ in five of their nine matches against the current top six, though with three of the exceptions coming against high flying Liverpool (twice) and Man City, we can see this being a cagier affair.

The last two meetings have finished 1-0 to Man United, with both games seeing Marcus Rashford find the net in the opening 10 minutes and then holding out for the result.

United have also seen a maximum of two goals in seven of their last eight against the top six this season since their opening day 4-0 hammering of Chelsea, and if they can get an early goal here they’ll likely shut up shop knowing they only need to avoid defeat.

Burnley hosts Brighton to end their Premier League season Sunday. Neither team is fighting off relegation or challenging for European spots, so why preview the match? Sorry to be anti-climactic, but because Burnley continues to be offered at valuable numbers.

Brighton
Brighton are safely mid-table in the Premier League — it’s actually been a pretty solid season for them. Expectations were low, and I would say they outperformed them. They got a good result against Arsenal to start the return to play, and while I would say that was more due to Arsenal’s ineptitude in the game, Brighton got the three points.

Their play has fallen off since then — winning one, drawing three and losing three. The sole win was against Norwich, who is the bottom-dweller in the Premier League. It feels to me they are content to pack it in and call it a season.

The advanced metrics do not do them any favors, eight. Since the restart, their goal differential is -1.0 and their expected goal (xG) differential is -0.92/game. I expect more of the same on Sunday.

Burnley
Burnley is also safe in the mid-table. Some would also question their motivation, but those people don’t know Sean Dyche. He is an intense, hard-nosed, defensive-minded manager who always gets the best out of his players.

They rarely take games off.

Burnley have lost one game since January, with seven wins and seven draws. They are in superb form, and I think they will be too much for Brighton, whose players have packed their bags for vacation. Their games are typically 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0. Nick Pope could be the best goalkeeper other than Liverpool’s Alisson Becker in the Premier League. Pope has been absolutely superb this season. He has 15 clean sheets to lead the league along with Man City’s Ederson.

Burnley is also an under machine. If you exclude the City game, all seven matches have had two or fewer goals over the last month. They give up few good chances, and take advantage of set pieces and long balls over the top. Their advanced metrics would say they are outperforming. Goal differential is basically even, while xG differential is -0.55. However, I just don’t see Brighton breaking that trend.

Expect the unexpected on the final day of the Premier League season:

2008: Middlesbrough 8-1 Man City
2010: Chelsea 8-0 Wigan
2013: WBA 5-5 Man Utd
2015: Stoke 6-1 Liverpool
2016: Newcastle 5-1 Spurs
2017: Hull 1-7 Spurs
2018: Spurs 5-4 Leicester
2019: Palace 5-3 Bounemouth