The MLS is Back Tournament rolls on Monday night as Group F kicks off with LAFC facing off against the Houston Dynamo. The tournament has been affected by the coronavirus with two teams already pulling out of the tournament (FC Dallas and Nashville FC) and numerous games having to be postponed due to positive tests.

However, most matches are still moving forward as scheduled for now.

LAFC
The big news out of the LAFC camp is reigning MVP Carlos Vela has decided to skip the tournament to be at home with his pregnant wife. He will leave a massive void in LAFC’s attack.

Vela was the key cog in LAFC’s offense, bagging 34 goals and 10 assists in 2019. Diego Rossi will now have to lead the LAFC attack, and he is a more than capable replacement, bagging 16 goals and 6 assists last season.

The Black and Gold had some key departures over the offseason, including their defensive rock Walker Zimmerman.

Zimmerman was part of a defense that only allowed 1.13 expected goals last season, so it will be interesting to see how LAFC looks without him.

Houston Dynamo
It was another poor season in 2019 for the Dynamo, who have missed the playoffs six of the last seven years. The Dynamo finished last season with a -1.35 expected goal differential, which is significantly lower than their actual goal differential of -14, suggesting they were a bit unlucky in 2019.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Despite some interest from Europe, Houston held onto their two best players Mauro Manotas and Alberth Elis, and when those two guys get going, they can score in bunches.

The Dynamo were the definition of average in 2019, ranking 14th in expected goals for per match (1.51) and expected goals against per match (1.55). I don’t see the Dynamo making much noise against one of the top teams in MLS.

Analysis
LAFC opened at -208 and dropped all the way down to -143 after the news about Vela broke. However, the total seems relatively unchanged following the news, which I think has created some value on under 3.5 goals.

Clubs hoping to shake off early funks go at it Monday in the evening heat when Portland and Los Angeles duke it out in Group F action of the MLS Is Back Tournament in Orlando.

Portland enters the match with a mixed bag of results accrued during the start of its league campaign. The Timbers suffered a 3-1 loss against Minnesota United in their home opener at Providence Park before picking up a 1-0 win against expansion club Nashville SC prior to the hiatus.

Portland was lucky to grab all three points against Nashville, as the Timbers were not sharp and were outplayed much of the contest.

As for Los Angeles, the franchise could not have asked for a more subpar beginning to its season. Loaded with offensive firepower, the Galaxy wound up winless and mustered just one goal in two matches.

It was surely something the team and its fans did not expect, especially with Mexico international Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez now leading the line up top. Los Angeles was simply out of sync on its attack and will have to get things in order right out of the gate in this talented group.

As with most matches in this competition, this is a tough contest to handicap, especially if you are looking to back a side. Neither team played with any sort of poise or rhythm in their opening matches and the break probably didn’t help.

Rematches usually happen late in the Major League Soccer season, but that’s not going to be the case Tuesday morning in Orlando.

Defending MLS Cup champion Seattle squares off against Chicago for the second time this season in a Group B match at the MLS Is Back tournament.

The clubs faced off during opening week of the regular season, with Seattle rallying for a 2-1 victory at CenturyLink Field thanks to a brace from standout Jordan Morris. Following that game, Seattle drew with Columbus and Chicago settled for a tie against New England before the global pandemic temporarily shut down the sport.

The Sounders have gotten the best of their Eastern Conference opponent, going 3-2-1 against the Fire in the last six meetings. Most recently, Seattle has racked up a 2-0-1 record in the last three games and scored seven goals during that impressive stretch.

As far as the MLS Is Back tournament goes, Seattle looked sluggish and out of sorts in its scoreless draw against San Jose in the group-stage opener for both sides.

The Sounders could not get anything going offensively and will have to do better if it’s going to earn a positive result against Chicago, which will be playing its first match of the tournament at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex.

That said, I am backing Seattle to get the best of Chicago for the second time this campaign and pick up all three points. Having that first game under their belts is going to benefit the Sounders against an opponent simply looking to find its tournament bearings.

I anticipate this to be a low-scoring affair in the sweltering morning heat and will be making a small play the total going under the number as well

Group A gets their second round of fixtures going Tuesday as the tournament-hosts Orlando City take on New York City FC.

Orlando bounce into the match off a last-gasp win over Inter Miami in their opening game, while NYCFC will be looking to get right after a disappointing 1-0 loss to Philadelphia.

Orlando City
The Lions dominated most of the first half against Inter Miami, but allowed Miami to go ahead to start the second half. However, the Lions stormed back with two goals in the final 27 minutes.

Orlando was the better side for most of the match, but barely won the expected goals battle, 1.48 to 1.44.

Orlando finished second-to-last in the Eastern Conference a season ago. However, the Lions were a tad unlucky throughout the campaign, as they finished in the top half of the MLS in expected goal differential and had the third-best defense in the league, in terms of xG.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Oscar Pareja, who enjoyed a lot of success at FC Dallas, was brought in as the new manager and the Lions upgraded at goalkeeper with the arrival of Pedro Gallese. If Orlando’s defense holds up they should be able to hang with NYCFC.

New York City FC
The Pigeons were unlucky to lose to Philadelphia Union in their opening match. NYCFC outshot the Union, 17 to 8, and won the expected goals battle 1.87 to 0.38.

NYCFC returned almost their entire roster from last season when they led the Eastern Conference with 64 points and finished third in the MLS with a +11.12 expected goal differential (per American Soccer Analysis).

New York City FC changed managers before the season, bringing in Ronny Deila, who has been dubbed “The Norwegian Klopp.” Delia changed NYCFC over to a 4-2-3-1 and with the change came some growing pains, as was shown in their match against Philadelphia.

The latest edition of the Canadian Classique takes place Thursday when rivals Montreal and Toronto FC battle it out at the MLS is Back Tournament in Orlando.

Always fun and full of physicality, this chapter in the “401 Derby” will surely bring the heat in this Group C showdown at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex.

Montreal enters the match looking for answers after a disappointing 1-0 shutout loss against New England in its opening fixture. The Impact looked disinterested and sluggish throughout the match, so the club must find its bearings against its counterpart or it will find itself stuck at the bottom of the group with anything but a victory.

On the other side, Toronto FC has to be kicking itself after its frustrating 2-2 draw against D.C. United in its opening group-stage match. The Reds, who have reached the MLS Cup final in three of the past four seasons, jumped out to a 2-0 lead at the half behind a brace from Ayo Akinola and looked to be well on their way to the full three points.

Toronto FC even went up a man before halftime when Junior Moreno was sent off with a red card, which meant D.C United had to play down a man the entire second half.

However, D.C. United managed to put Toronto FC on its heels and struck for two late goals to secure the come-from-behind draw, mustering a point in the process.

Montreal and Toronto FC have a fierce distaste for one another in this rivalry, which Toronto FC has had the upper hand on over the course of its existence. The Reds hold a 23-13-10 advantage against the Impact, including an 8-4-1 edge in the last 13 meetings across all competitions.

If this were a regular-season match in Canada, I would heavily lean toward the total staying under the number. However, things have been heating up down in Florida, with nine of the last 10 matches going over 2.5 goals, and I am going that route on this occasion. Both teams need to get a result out of the game and a draw just won’t cut it for either side.

Expect an early goal to open things up and turn this into an exciting, back-and-forth affair. It might not be as nuts as San Jose’s crazy 4-3 win against Vancouver on Wednesday, but could have plenty of fireworks of its own.

If you’re looking for a side, sprinkle a little on Toronto FC to grab the win. The Reds are in better form and should have collected three points from the opener. Manager Greg Vanney will have his troops ready and primed for a better performance against Thierry Henry’s side.

The MLS is Back Tournament continues Thursday as the leaders of Group E battle for a potential trip to the Round of 16. Columbus looked fantastic in its first match, routing FC Cincinnati 4-0 on Saturday behind a Gysai Zardes brace. New York Red Bulls pulled off a 1-0 upset of Atlanta United last Saturday and now have a fantastic opportunity to go through to the Round of 16.

Columbus Crew
Columbus was impressive offensively in its first match against FC Cincinnati; however, expected goals shows us they were fortunate to win by as much as they did. The Crew won the expected goals battle only 1.38 to 0.32 against the worst team in MLS from a season ago.

The Crew were riddled with injuries last season and finished a disappointing 10th in the Eastern Conference.

Columbus wasn’t an offensive juggernaut, generating a measly 1.25 expected goals per match in 2019. However, the Crew addressed those issues by signing Lucas Zelarayan from Liga MX’s UNAL Tigres, who got on the scoresheet in his first match. The Argentine will provide a big boost in the No. 10 role for the Crew.

Although the Crew looked great against FC Cincinnati, the Red Bulls are a step up in competition, and I think they will have a more difficult time finding the back of the net than in their first match.

New York Red Bulls
The Red Bulls were impressive in their first match against the 2018 MLS Cup Champions. New York went ahead in the 4th minute behind a Florian Valot breakaway goal and held on for the remaining 86 minutes to win 1-0.

The Red Bulls had some key departures in the offseason with the likes of Luis Robles, Bradley Wright-Phillips and Kemar Lawrence leaving the club. The Red Bulls didn’t make any significant moves to replace them, either.

The core of the Red Bulls is still solid and can compete with the top teams in MLS, but the Red Bulls lack depth across the board. The Red Bulls were the definition of average last year, ranking 15th in expected goals for per match (1.50) and 12th in expected goals against per match (1.50). I think they will be able to build off their win against Atlanta United with another solid performance Thursday night.

The bottom of Group D faces off in an elimination Friday night as Sporting KC battles the Colorado Rapids. Sporting KC was stunned by two goals from Minnesota in stoppage time to lose 2-1.

Colorado Rapids were poor, losing 2-0 to Real Salt Lake and never really created any high-quality chances. The loser of this match will be going home from the MLS is Back Tournament.

Sporting KC
The 2-1 loss was disappointing for Sporting KC as they controlled the entire match, but just couldn’t finish. Sporting won the expected goals battle 1.49 to 1.12. In fact, for the first 65 minutes of the game Minnesota had registered just one shot, while KC had 14 shots registered.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Sporting KC missed the postseason last year for the first time in 10 years.

However, their underlying metrics show they were a bit unlucky. Based on expected points, Sporting should have earned 48 points rather than 38.

Over the offseason, Sporting finally addressed their need for a center forward by signing Liga MX’s top goal scorer Alan Pulido from Chivas Guadalajara. He figures to improve an offense that averaged 1.72 xG per match last season.

Sporting’s main issue last season was their defense. Kansas City let in 67 goals, which was the second-highest mark in MLS. They brought in newcomers Roberto Puncec and Winston Reid to try and stabilize their backline.

With high offensive output and a shaky defense, Sporting KC’s matches last year were really high scoring, with an average of 3.36 xG per match. I expect another high-scoring affair Friday night against the worst defense in MLS one season ago.

Colorado Rapids
The Rapids were poor in their first match, allowing two goals to the 19th-ranked offense in MLS a season ago. They weren’t much better offensively, creating only one chance over 0.15 xG in the match.

Last season, Colorado had the worst defensive record in the league, allowing 1.93 expected goals per match, but the Rapids are hoping their two young centerbacks Lalas Abubakar and newly-acquired Auston Trusty can help fix their leaky defense.

Colorado also lost USMNT legend Tim Howard in the offseason, and they haven’t found a capable replacement who can help stabilize things behind a young backline.

The Rapids posted decent offensive numbers last season, generating 1.64 xG per match. That number stands to improve as the Rapids signed talented attacking midfielder Younes Namli from FC Krasnodar.

With a shaky defense and an improving offense, I expect this match versus Sporting KC to provider some fireworks.

Another Eastern Conference showdown takes place Friday at the MLS is Back tournament, with D.C. United taking on New England in Group C action.

Both clubs picked up positive results in their respective opening group-stage fixtures for very different reasons.

New England captured a 1-0 win against Montreal to kick off its schedule and would advance to the knockout stage of the competition with a victory here. Standout Gustavo Bou scored the lone goal of the match and goalkeeper Matt Turned played exceptionally well in securing the shutout win for the Revolution.

Manager Bruce Arena had to be impressed with New England’s effort. Outside of a brilliant late save from Turner, the club really didn’t feel much heat in its defensive third from Montreal and kept its Canadian foe in check throughout the contest.

On the other side, D.C. United earned what probably felt like a victory in a 2-2 draw against conference powerhouse Toronto FC in its first match of the tournament. Manager Ben Olsen and his squad trailed 2-0 in the first half and lost Junior Moreno late in the opening stanza after he was given a red card.

However, despite being down a man the entire second half, D.C. United came storming back and scored two unanswered goals late in the contest to salvage the shocking tie to snag the coveted point.

Recent history points to this being a pretty even match. The clubs drew in their regular-season tilts during last year’s MLS campaign, with the sides first playing to a 1-1 tie at Gillette Stadium and a 2-2 draw later in the campaign.

Bottom line, D.C. United really needs to snare all three points here if it’s going to have any chance of reaching the knockout stage, so you have to believe it’s going to be aggressive out of the gate. As for New England, anything but a loss would put it in prime position to advance down in Orlando.

After digging into this match and reflecting on how both played in their openers, I am fully expecting another night of excitement at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex. I really don’t see this game being as electric as the San Jose-Vancouver and Montreal-Toronto FC matches, which both ended in 4-3 results, but things could really open up with that early goal and I forecast that happening in this contest.

Things should heat up under the lights at the MLS is Back tournament Saturday when Houston battles Portland in a Group F showdown.

Known for playing highly entertaining matches, the Western Conference foes both enter the game hoping to secure three points in their respective quests to reach the competition’s knockout stage in Orlando.

Portland comes into this game fresh off a 2-1 victory against the Los Angeles Galaxy in its opener. Sebastian Blanco was brilliant in the win, setting up Jeremy Ebobisse to give the Timbers an early second-half lead before scoring the eventual game-winning goal.

Portland dodged several quality Los Angeles opportunities throughout the match, including a missed penalty kick from Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez, to pick up all the points.

On the other side, Houston had to be kicking itself after its disappointing 3-3 draw against Los Angeles Football Club in its tournament debut. Trailing 1-0 against LAFC, the Dynamo score three unanswered goals to take a 3-1 lead before giving up two goals during a brutal six-minute span in the second half to settle for the lone point.

It should go without saying this is an extremely important match for both outfits. A Portland win would essentially vault it into the knockout stage. As for Houston, a defeat would be devastating with just one match to play.

Historically, these clubs don’t hold much back when squaring off and I can’t see that trend changing in this tilt. There have been a combined 17 goals scored between the Dynamo and Timbers in their last five meetings, with at least three goals coming in four of those last five games.

The Dynamo and Timbers have each scored at least a goal in four of those last five games, which is why the line for that prop is sitting at -205. If you’re willing to lay that kind of wood, I think that bet has a very good chance to cash, as well.

There are very few rivalries as heated and lit across the North American soccer landscape as the Los Angeles Football Club-Los Angeles Galaxy feud.

On Saturday, the latest edition of “El Trafico” takes place in a crucial Group F match at the MLS is Back tournament in Orlando.

Both clubs enter the match in less than stellar form after their opening contests of the competition, being held at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex.

Manager Bob Bradley surely had mixed emotions after LAFC rallied for a 3-3 draw against Houston in its group-stage debut. Trailing 3-1 in the second half, LAFC scored two unanswered goals to earn the tie and point against the Dynamo.

LAFC seemed out of sorts offensively at times, which could be largely attributed to the absence of star Carlos Vela. The Mexican international opted to skip the competition due to the global pandemic.

The Galaxy had to be extremely disappointed following a 2-1 setback against Portland in a crazy, back-and-forth affair. Los Angeles had an opportunity to jump out to a 1-0 lead in that match via a penalty kick, but Javier “Chicharito” Hernandez was denied and it really set the tone of the match moving forward. A late goal Chicharito got Los Angeles on the board, but it wasn’t enough and makes this showdown beyond important for the Galaxy.

This inner-city rivalry is relatively new, with LAFC one of the newer teams to join Major League Soccer. However, it didn’t take long for these sides to deliver some of the most entertaining matches the league has ever seen.

And how wild have things gotten between these two over the course of their recent meetings? The numbers tell it all:

Last Six Meetings:

LAFC 5, LA Galaxy 3
LAFC 3, LA Galaxy 3
LA Galaxy 3, LAFC 2
LA Galaxy 1, LAFC 1
LA Galaxy 2, LAFC 2
LA Galaxy 4, LAFC 3

Not only are the results pretty even, but the aggregate scoreline is knotted, 16-16.

Needless to say, this match has the makings of another good, old-fashioned shootout since both teams traditionally leave their respective defensive wits in the locker room in these showdowns.

There is plenty on the line Sunday when Seattle plays Vancouver in a crucial Group B match at the MLS is Back Tournament.

Both sides are looking for their first win in Orlando and a loss for either club in this fixture sends them home early from the competition.

Seattle, the reigning MLS Cup champion, was anything but steady in its opening two matches. The Sounders settled for a scoreless draw in their opener against San Jose before being a dealt a 2-1 loss against Chicago. That leaves Seattle with a single point and its back up against the wall in a group it was favored to win prior to the tournament.

On the other side, Vancouver must put its opening-game debacle to the side and focus on the task at hand. The Whitecaps looked well on their way to a victory against San Jose on debut, jumping out a 3-1 lead in the second half. However, San Jose rallied for three unanswered goals the rest of the way, including Shea Salinas’ miraculous winner in the waning seconds of stoppage time, to pull off the stunning 4-3 triumph.

Historically, Seattle holds the edge between the Cascadia rivals, boasting an 11-7-6 record against Vancouver in the series and has dominated even more so as of late. The Sounders are unbeaten against the Whitecaps in the last six meetings, putting together a 4-0-2 record during that streak. Seattle has outscored Vancouver by a 7-1 margin in that timeframe with five shutouts.

On paper, this match screams under. However, there is something going on in Florida that made the defenses ultra leaky on a consistent basis.

Three of the last five matches at the tournament have gone over the number, including a whopping 11 goals combined scored in Saturday’s two evening tilts.

And after watching Seattle struggle against Chicago, followed by Vancouver’s defensive collapse against San Jose, I really can’t see anything improving for either side defensively in such a short period of time.

The leaders in Group B face off Sunday night with a potential trip to the Round of 16 on the line. Chicago was moved to Group B after FC Dallas and Nashville FC had to drop out of the tournament, then upset the 2019 MLS Cup Champions Seattle in their first match, thanks to a 84th minute winner from Mauricio Pineda.

San Jose pulled off an incredible comeback in their last match, scoring three goals in the final 18 minutes to win 4-3 over the Vancouver Whitecaps. If San Jose wins they will be guaranteed a spot in the Round of 16. If Chicago wins, they will vault themselves to the top of the group and almost surely secure a spot in the Round of 16.

Chicago Fire
The Fire were impressive against the reigning champions in their first match, winning 2-1 and winning the expected goals battle 1.28 to 0.89. Chicago converted there two big scoring chances (35%> chance of scoring) and limited Seattle to only one shot that exceeded 0.10 xG.

The Fire are in a transition year, with a new owner, manager, sporting director, and technical director. That transition also extends to the field as the Fire have lost their unquestioned leader and former Bayern Munich captain, Bastian Schweinsteiger, to retirement.

They’ve also lost one of their best attacking players Nicolas Gaitan to LOSC Lille, but the Fire brought in a number of talented European attacking players to fill the void, so it will be interesting to see how successful they will be in their first season in the Windy City.

Last season, Chicago was the most underrated team in MLS. The Fire ranked inside the top five in both expected goals for (1.72) and against (1.36) per match, but finished a disappointing eighth-place in the Eastern Conference. Even though they won their first match, I think the massive amount of roster turnover could comeback to bite them.

San Jose Earthquakes
The Earthquakes held Seattle to a 0-0 draw in their first match and pulled of an incredible comeback against the Vancouver Whitecaps to win 4-3 in their last match. They absolutely deserved the win over the Whitecaps, outshooting them 30-7 and winning the expected goals battle 2.29 to 0.82.

San Jose returns 96% of a roster that should have been a playoff team last season. Based on expected points, San Jose should have finished in the fourth place in the Western Conference in 2019.