another action packed week ahead, let's keep rolling folks !
GL

For the first time since Jose Mourinho became manager at Tottenham in November, Spurs will have all six of their best attacking players available on Tuesday afternoon as London rivals West Ham United visit Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Harry Kane didn’t look close to fit and wasn’t effective in Friday’s 1-1 draw with Manchester United, but he’s available. Dele Alli is back from suspension to join Lucas Moura, Steven Bergwijn, Heung-min Son and Erik Lamela as Mourinho will have plenty of options to both set his starting XI and use his five subs to alter the game.

Mourinho will also have the opportunity to bring both new signings Gio Lo Celso and Tanguy Ndombele off the bench in the second half, who would instantly become Spurs most creative midfield players. If Spurs had no problem controlling the midfield with Harry Winks and Eric Dier in the midfield when they beat West Ham convincingly in November, then I have no concerns about Spurs’ better midfielders (Moussa Sissoko included) to control this game.

West Ham’s road form has been brutal this year, as the Hammers have conceded twice as many goals as they have scored and averaged less than one goal per game. Spurs have their defensive issues, but WHU hasn’t shown an ability to generate anything in attack on the road, especially since striker Sébastien Haller and creative midfielder Robert Snodgrass are out for this match. Only Aston Villa has a worse expected goal difference away from home in the Premier League in 2019-20.

By expected points metrics, despite an improvement in performances before the layoff for David Moyes’ side, the Hammers rank 19th in expected points. Spurs’ biggest issue this year has been a lack of game control, allowing way too many shots from the opponent, but West Ham aren’t the team to take advantage of that. The Hammers’ rank 18th in shots per game, and that’s including Haller, their most active shot taker.

Without Haller, who has seven goals, it’s not clear where the goals will come from. WHU generated 0.44 xG against Wolves in a 2-0 defeat Saturday, and the Hammers’ front four that started Saturday has produced six combined goals this year.

When these two teams met in November, Spurs were -145 on the moneyline, despite having a worse midfield available and being on the road. I understand why the market is low on Tottenham because of their underlying xG numbers, but they are too cheap here, just -140 at home. Tottenham, despite its deficiencies as a squad, should have no issues dispatching WHU in this London derby.

The Premier League rolls on Tuesday as third-place Leicester City hosts 14th-place Brighton & Hove Albion at the King Power Stadium.

Leicester may rue the fact that they could only earn a draw against Watford in their first match back, but the expected goals report shows that a tie was a fair result, even if Watford’s equalizer came in the game’s dying seconds.

Brighton were perhaps the story of the first weekend back in action as the Seagulls pulled off a stunning comeback against Arsenal, scoring a 95th-minute goal to win, 2-1.

Brighton only have a five-point cushion between them and the relegation zone so another result is vital for the Seagulls if they want to be able to breathe easy. Leicester only own a three-point lead over Chelsea but they have an eight-point edge over Manchester United, so they look to be a sure thing for Champions League in 2020-21.

Leicester City
This has been Leicester City’s best season since their miraculous Championship run back in 2015-16. Leicester was buoyed from a fantastic run of form between Oct. 19 and Dec. 8 that saw the Foxes win nine matches in a row and outscore their opponents, 25-3.

They say all good things must come to an end and Leicester began to stumble a bit before the world came to a halt.

Leicester have only picked up nine of a possible 27 points over their last nine games, but those results are a tad misleading as Leicester had a +0.73 expected goal differential in those matches.

There’s usually plenty of action when Leicester takes the field as they average 2.90 total expected goals per contest this season. That explains why 60% of their matches have ticked over 2.5 goals in 2019-20.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Thanks to their 2-1 win over Arsenal, Brighton are out of relegation trouble for now. However, the Seagulls are going to need to improve on the road if they want to avoid getting sucked back into the fray.

Brighton have earned only six of a possible 24 points and have a -7.46 expected goals differential in eight road games against the top-half of the Premier League.

Brighton matches only average 2.5 total goals, but their total xG per match is 3.03 (and 3.23 on the road), so it’s not like they play a boring style. In fact, 60% of Brighton’s road matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season

Wolves vs Bournemouth | Wednesday 24th June 2020, 1:00

Bournemouth’s survival chances suffered another blow on Saturday night losing 2-0 against Crystal Palace. It was an uninspiring performance from the Cherries and they looked like a team deep in trouble. There was no quality in the final third. David Brooks showed a few glimpses of what he’s capable of, but Vicente Guaita was never troubled in the Palace goal.

While they like to look easy on the eye, there’s very little bite in that Cherries side. They’ve got eight games to prove they’re good enough to stay up, but they need to show more aggression and fight rather than their usual timid displays.

Things don’t get easier for Eddie Howe’s side with a trip to Molineux against a Wolves side flying and on the cusp of a second consecutive season of European football.

The Old Gold dominated against West Ham controlling the play and six shots on target from ten shots proves Lukas Fabianski was kept busy. But the masterstroke was bringing Adama Traoré off the bench against a tiring backline. His explosive power saw him able to put a ball into Raúl Jiménez, who bagged his 14th of the season.

It’s now just one defeat in nine for Nuno Espírito Santo’s side and they’ll be eyeing fourth spot with Chelsea facing a tough assignment against Man City. If they win and the Blues lost, it’ll be just a two-point deficit.

Back an easy home win
Wolves have been excellent once again this season. Jiménez bullies defences, Traoré scares them with his pace and power, plus the technical ability of João Moutinho and Diogo Jota always impresses. Against the bottom seven at Molineux, they’re unbeaten in six with four wins and two draws. In those games, they’ve conceded just twice and that’s partly down to a solid defence.

Nuno's troops boast the third-best Expected Goals Against at 28.20 xGA proving Bournemouth might find it tough to create too many clear-cut chances.

It’s hard not to enjoy watching this Wolves side on their day. They’ve already seen off struggling sides like Norwich (3-0), West Ham (2-0) and Watford (2-0) here, and you’d imagine a very similar outcome.

Bournemouth looked toothless in the final third against Palace and created just 0.36 xG, which is pretty dreadful. Josh King limping off in that one is a big blow and if he’s out for any length of time that could put pay to their survival chances.

David Brooks also only lasted an hour on his return and you’d imagine he’d play a similar time here. So, the lack of depth in their attacking options makes me believe Wolves will be able to keep them at arm’s length and pick up three points in the process.

As soon as the full-time whistle blew to end the Cherries defeat to the Eagles, I was eyeing up the prices in the Asian Handicap markets. There were some big prices around on Wolves and the -1 is still odds-against (59/50 888) in this market and it’s one I’m very happy to take.

I can see the hosts dictating this game and being very comfortable. Bournemouth’s backline doesn’t inspire confidence and they are toothless upfront, so the quality on show for Old Gold makes this 59/50 price quite tasty. It’s even a refund if Wolves win by just one goal.

Liverpool vs Crystal Palace | Wednesday 24th June 2020, 3:15

Liverpool’s 30-year wait to be crowned English champions will go on just a little bit longer past Wednesday night’s hosting of Crystal Palace following the Reds’ derby stalemate at the weekend.

A draw against Everton was a fair result in a pretty drab contest with little in the way of clear cut opportunities. In fact, had the Toffees front pairing of Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin been more clinical, Klopp’s men could have been making the very short trip back across Stanley Park with no points at all.

Sunday’s goalless affair saw little invention from the Liverpool attack, undoubtedly missing Mo Salah’s runs in behind the opposition defence and his precision finishing. Whenever one of the Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino partnership is missing, there’s an almost inevitable drop-off in performance levels and goals from the Reds which will concern Klopp, despite it not being a very new problem.

Divok Origi has scored some crucial goals for the club in the past couple of years but isn’t at the level of the aforementioned triplet and recent signing Takumi Minamino is still trying to find his feet in the Premier League. Whilst they will no doubt get over the line in the next couple of weeks, it seems as if Liverpool are stuttering rather than cruising over it with so many points in the bank.

Wednesday’s opponents Crystal Palace, managed by former Liverpool boss Roy Hodgson, are enjoying a great season. The Eagles have surpassed everyone’s expectations by sitting ninth in the table, despite ranking low on nearly every data metric and scoring just 28 goals in their 30 league matches.

A rigid structure and well organised defence has left a fair few teams struggling to break down the south Londoners, just as did Bournemouth found on Saturday evening. The flat back four is a common theme and Hodgson has been able to rotate between a five and four-man midfield depending on the upcoming fixture.

The 70-year-old coach has gotten the best out of players that many had thought were past their best at the top level, including the likes of Gary Cahill and Andre Ayew – the latter who has now scored in three successive matches.

Ayew, a bargain £2.5m signing from Swansea, is playing off Christian Benteke’s hold up play brilliantly and causing lots of problems with his direct running, as is Africain counterpart Wilfred Zaha on the opposite flank.

Whether European football next season is a realistic prospect remains to be seen, particularly with a tough run of games coming up to end the season, but Palace fans would be rejoicing even if they end up finishing mid-table and rightly so.

The betting angles
Looking ahead to this game and I’m expecting a stubborn showing from Roy’s boys, even if they ultimately end up leaving empty handed. Liverpool to win, Under 4 Goals and Under 5 Cards is 11/10 with Bet365’s bet builder and is worth a one point play in my book.

It gives us more interest than the general 1/4 on the home side to win by getting a goal marker Palace so frequently meet on side. Having only bagged 28 times themselves, it’s little surprise to see that Palace games have averaged just two goals per match across the campaign with seven of their eight games against this season’s top seven seeing under four goals.

lets go 5-0 !!!

Wolverhampton Wanderers
-1-104

Newcastle United
+131

Everton FC
-114
.
Manchester United
-1, -1.5-105

Liverpool FC
-1.5-115

glta

This season was shaping up to be something truly special for Atalanta.

Not only were La Dea putting up terrific results in Serie A, but they also were in the middle of an unexpected run to the quarterfinals in their first-ever Champions League appearance.

It wasn’t long after Atalanta thrashed Valencia, 8-4 on aggregate, in the Round of 16 that the world came to a halt due to the pandemic.

Atalanta’s inspiring season was quickly back-burnered as the club’s home city of Bergamo became a hot spot for the virus. Fortunately, things have settled down in Northern Italy and the people of Bergamo can start to focus on their beloved team as it resumes its magical season.

Runs like the one that Atalanta were on are often propped up by luck, but La Dea’s success is legitimate as they have the best expected goal differential in Serie A this season. Even though they are in fourth place, Atalanta may be the best team in Italy right now.

Lazio has also put together a splendid season. The Eagles currently sit in second place in La Liga and are the only team within striking distance of pace-setters Juventus.

Unlike Atalanta, Lazio’s results are a tad misleading as their league-leading goals against record is 8.45 goals better than their xG allowed this season. In other words, Lazio is very fortunate to be in second place and their statistical profile suggests they should be closer to fifth in the league.

Any worries about the break messing with Atalanta’s form were quickly quashed by a 4-1 victory over Sassuolo this weekend. It was a quintessential La Dea performance. There were scoring chances at both ends of the pitch with 5.58 total expected goals created, but in the end it was Atalanta who deservedly took all three points.

While Atalanta grade out as Italy’s best offense, they will not have an easy time with Lazio, who rank first in goals allowed and fourth in xG conceded this season. Just because Lazio’s defense is due for regression doesn’t mean it isn’t stellar.

While Atalanta tries to go out there and out-score their opposition, Lazio are a committed defensive team that has the luxury of backing up a top-four offense. Lazio will certainly try and muddy up this match, but I don’t see that being the case, especially since this will be their first game since the end of February.

All season long teams have tried to slow Atalanta down but La Dea have a way of goading you into playing the style of soccer that they want to play. At 4.19 total goals per match, Atalanta games feature 0.67 more goals per game than the next team, Lecce. Gian Piero Gasperini’s team have no issue giving up scoring chances because they know they will create plenty of opportunities at the other end.

Atalanta scored twice in the first 30 minutes in their first match back and I expect La Dea to be on the front foot out of the gates in this contest, too. Lazio figures to be a bit rusty off the long layoff and they could be down a goal or two before they find their legs.

Sheffield United visits Old Trafford on Wednesday with a chance to jump Manchester United and move into fifth place — a spot that may be enough to qualify for Champions League football in the fall.

Sheffield is the true feel-good story of the 2019-20 Premier League season. Projected to finish near the bottom of the table as league newcomers, the Blades have rode sturdy defense, stellar goalkeeping and timely goals into the top eight, with a chance to make European football next year.

However, there are reasons to suggest that Sheffield’s excellent form from before the layoff will not continue into June and July, and thus far, the Blades have struggled in 180 minutes of play since the restart.

The Blades opened with a goalless draw against lowly Aston Villa. Even though they clearly should’ve scored a goal after an officiating error, Sheffield was clearly outplayed for the majority of the match. Last weekend, a red card turned a goalless affair with Newcastle into a 3-0 Magpies’ rout.

Sheffield have scored 30 and conceded 28 all season, the fewest combined goals of any team in the league, and since the return, the Blades have generated 0.8 combined xG against two of the Premier League’s worst defenses. Now, they’ll match up with one of the PL’s best.

Manchester United needed a late penalty to draw with Spurs on Friday afternoon, but they largely stifled Tottenham’s attack except for a run and finish from Spurs’ Steven Bergwijn. As a team, United ranks fourth in expected goals allowed and fourth in actual goals allowed.

My only concern is on corners, where United have conceded eight goals and Sheffield have scored five (8.74 xGF) this season.

United’s biggest problems in attack have come against teams who will sit deeper and look to counter them. Where United are one of the league’s most dangerous counter attacking teams, I’m not sure how many chances they’ll get against Sheffield to do this.

Only four teams pressure opponents on the ball less than Sheffield, who allow 12.78 passes per defensive action.

Against those four teams who pressure the ball even less than Sheffield, here are Manchester United’s results:

1-0 loss at Newcastle
4-1 win vs. Newcastle
1-1 at Wolves
0-0 vs. Wolves
2-0 loss at West Ham
1-0 loss at Bournemouth

United have a clear problem and inability to break teams down. This has improved with the addition of Bruno Fernandes and could progress further with the addition Paul Pogba on Wednesday, but I still have concerns about any attacking front three featuring Daniel James and Anthony Martial.

A battle of the bottom of table takes place at St. James’ Park Wednesday between Newcastle and Aston Villa. Newcastle won its first game back against Sheffield United after they took advantage of red card from the opponents.

Aston Villa have looked much better since the break winning the expected goals battle in both their games. Aston Villa are the team with something to play for, currently sitting in 19th place, one point for safety. While Newcastle are in the middle of the table, safe from relegation, but too far from a Europa League spot.

Newcastle
Newcastle were fortune to go ahead after Sheffield United’s John Egan was sent off early in the second half. The Magpies were able to find some offense after gaining the man advantage scoring three goals in 23 minutes.

Before the red card, the Magpies struggled offensively only generating 0.69 xG in the first 50 minutes of the game. They will need greatly improve against a suddenly revitalized Aston Villa squad.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

The Magpies really deserve to be lower in the table than where they currently sit. Based on expected points, Newcastle is 13.55 points higher in the table than where they should be (38 actual vs. 24.45 xPoints). Much of the reason for the variance is due their good fortune defensively.

On average, Newcastle concede 1.37 goals per game, which is significantly lower than their 1.76 xG allowed per game. Defensive regression will be coming for some point for Newcastle and playing against a desperate Aston Villa squad could a problem for the Magpies.

Aston Villa
The Lions have been much improved since the Premier returned from the break. Winning the expected goals battle in both of their matches between Sheffield United and Chelsea. Before the break, Aston Villa was the worst defensive team in the Premier League, conceding 2.18 expected goals per game. In their last two matches, the Lions have only conceded 0.88 xG per game.

The Lions have been poor offensively scoring just 1.25 xG per game, but in their last two games, they’ve improved offensively averaging 1.50 xG per game. Playing against a weak Newcastle defense could be just the thing the Lions need to get out of the relegation zone.

Two matches and two defeats since the Premier League restart has left Arsenal stuck on 40 points, 10th in the table and even on goal differential. The once perennial top-four finishers have fallen from that position and now couldn’t be more average this season.

The Gunners hit the road to play at Southampton on Thursday desperate for three points to push back into contention for a Europa League place next season. This line suggests that Arsenal are a slightly better team than the Saints, with some minor home-field adjustment making the line dead even.

However, based on Arsenal’s road form this season, poor showings of late and Southampton’s much improved play, the Saints should be the favorite and are underpriced in this matchup.

The Gunners have two road wins this year, a 1-0 win at Newcastle on opening day and a 3-1 win at West Ham in December. Arsenal’s totaled two wins, eight draws and five defeats away from The Emirates this year. Their poor form (0.93 points per match) is the reason Unai Emery was sacked and Mikel Arteta was hired.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

A look at the underlying metrics all suggest that Arsenal are not in fact an average team, but a below-average one. Arsenal have generated 37.7 xG this year and conceded 45.2 xG, ranking 13th in the Premier League, and worse than Southampton’s nearly dead even xG difference per 90 (-0.01).

These are two teams headed in opposite directions as evidenced by Southampton’s 3-0 thrashing of Norwich last Friday and Arsenal’s late collapse and 2-1 loss to Brighton on Saturday. The Gunners have major question marks both in defense and through the midfield.

Goalkeeper Bernd Leno will miss the rest of the season after a knee injury and while Sokratis may return at center back, it’s unlikely that defensive midfielder Granit Xhaka will start.

Up top, 19-year-old phenom Gabriel Martinelli is out for an extended period after a Monday training injury. With chances at Europe teetering a way and a crucial FA Cup tie coming on Sunday against Sheffield, this is a bad spot for a sputtering Arsenal side.

This matchup also presents an excellent live-betting opportunity. Looking at Arsenal’s minute splits this season, the Gunners are much better in the opening 30 minutes of games than they are late.

Arsenal’s xG by minute in 2019-20:

1-30: +2.93
31-60: -3.28
61-90: -6.06
If Arsenal does score early, they haven’t shown an ability to maintain a lead. When leading by one goal this year, Arsenal have scored to go up two five times, but conceded an equalizer nine times.

Wolverhampton Wanderers..........push

Newcastle United ......................loss
+131

Everton FC..............................win
-114
.
Manchester United.....................win
-1, -1.5-105

Liverpool FC.................................win
-1.5-115

Covid to date : 5-1-1

Draw
+244
Arsenal FC vs Southampton FC

Manchester City
-132

Over
2, 2.5-108
Watford FC vs Burnley FC

glta

Draw
+244
Arsenal FC vs Southampton FC

Manchester City
-132

Over
2, 2.5-108
Watford FC vs Burnley FC

Covid to date : 5-4-1

Covid to date : 6-7-1

EPL

Crystal Palace
+126

glta