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Tottenham vs Manchester United | Friday 19th June 2020, 3:15

Jose Mourinho goes head-to-head with his former employers Manchester United with many a point to prove and not only to those in the away camp.

Since arriving in November, Mourinho’s time in North London has not endeared him to the Tottenham fanbase which can hardly come as any surprise when you factor in poor results as well as an outdated brand of football. Before the suspension of play, Spurs lost four of six matches and you could even tally it up to five if you include the FA Cup penalty loss to lowly Norwich.

With an early Champions league exit and lack of positive results in the league, the Portuguese manager’s win percentage stands at just 42.3%, the lowest of any Spurs manager since Juande Ramos’s ill-faited 35 game spell in charge all the way back in 2007.

From the outside, most people were baffled by the sacking of Mauricio Pochettino having taken a team with no new signings in 2018/19 to the Champions League final. That seemingly didn’t give the Argentine enough credit in the bank when Spurs started this season poorly with the away form being the squad’s constant Achilles heal.

In truth though, Tottenham haven’t yet replicated the home record they established in the latter years of White Hart Lane at their new stadium and with the remaining fixtures in N17 to be played behind closed doors, you wonder whether how much of a home ‘advantage’ there will be here.

In the six full matchdays since the Bundesliga resumed, home wins have dropped a massive 23% and although we can’t say for certain, that could well be a common theme across the major leagues as they get underway again.

I’m happy to get United on side for other reasons than just that though, mainly due to the talent they will have at their disposal here. Spurs have looked a defensive liability all season long with the seventh highest Expected Goals against total (xGA) and just four league clean sheets in 29 games played. United to win is 29/20 with Betfair at the time of writing and will be my first play.

Whilst United look set to be at full strength, the Lillywhites will be missing Dele Alli through suspension and bright young talent Japhet Tanganga who had breathed new line into a fragile defence. That backline will, in my view, struggle to cope with the pace of the United forwards and particularly the man who’s had an extraordinary week – Marcus Rashford.

Rashford and Red Devils to thrive
Rashford’s off the field work has seen plenty of deserved plaudits come his way and with the high he must be on, I wouldn’t put anyone off backing the England striker to score anytime in the game or, if you’re feeling brave, to be first goalscorer at 9/2 and repeat the winning double he bagged in the reverse fixture.

The 22-year-old and his teammates have all benefitted from the January signing of Bruno Fernandes who has helped the team become far more potent in attack. The man bought from Lisbon’s shot average per 90 minutes is an impressive 3.63 and in away games since the middle of February, United have recorded an average shot count of 17.75 showing just how much they are taking the game to their opponents.

A feature of Spurs’ underwhelming season has been just how many shots they are allowing opposing teams to register. The season average stands at 14.4 per match – the 6th highest total in the Premier League – and in the last two matches against top six sides that number has risen to 16 and 15 respectively.

Whether Tottenham go full on Mourinho masterclass to try and stifle the game or play more expansive I can see them being opened up by the Red Devils and that should lead to plenty of efforts for the away side. United to have 14 or more shots is 11/10 with SkyBet and I’m happy to back that for my second selection of the game.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, whether you think he’s a good coach or not, does like his teams to play on the front foot and although the ‘Ole’s at the wheel’ slogans may be heard a lot less now, there’s no doubting that the former striker is getting some good form out of United’s youngsters.

The team have seemingly prepared well for the season restart, looking sharp in friendly games whilst Spurs’ most recent warm up fixture was postponed following a Norwich player (who they played last week) testing positive for COVID-19. If United can use that extra bit of match sharpness to their advantage, I think Rashford, Fernandes, Martial and company will take the three points back to Manchester.

La Liga results since returning

4 road wins (-8.11 units)
6 home wins (-6.74 u)
8 draws (+9.35 u)
2.33 goals per match (42 total)

Bundesliga results since returning

31 road wins (+21.7 units)
16 home wins (-31.3 u)
17 draws (+13.5 u)

⚽Road teams scored first in 36 matches and were shut out 11 times
⚽Home teams scored first in 25 matches and were shut out 21 times
⚽2.98 goals per match (191 total)

Project Restart is complete, the Premier League is back, and Friday’s doubleheader kicks off with mid-table Southampton battling lowly Norwich City, who are in danger of headed straight back down to the Championship.

Headed into the break, Norwich lost three of four matches, nabbing a 1-0 win against Leicester sandwiched between losses to Liverpool, Wolves, and Sheffield United.

The Canaries will be desperate for points as they sit six points from safety with nine matches to play.

Norwich’s attack goes as striker Teemu Pukki goes, and his form significantly worsened heading into the 100-day layoff. He’s their leading goal scorer with 11 on the year, but the popular Finn only has two goals in his last 11 starts and none in his last five. Without him finishing chances, the Canaries don’t have many other options for goals.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

As much as betting against Norwich has been profitable this season, Friday’s pick is more of a bet on Southampton, who completely turned around their performances and play style since November.

After losing 9-0 to Leicester City in November, there were calls to fire manager Ralph Hasenhüttl. Southampton had won two, drawn two and lost eight of their first 12 matches headed into the November international break.

Since returning from that break, switching to a back-four and backing Hasenhuttl, the Saints won seven, drew two and lost three of their next 12. They now sit on 34 points and that turn in form makes their underlying numbers underrate them.

Based on expected goals alone, Southampton should be a top-10 team. They rank seventh in xGF and 12th in xGA.

One of those matches that fueled Southampton’s turnaround was a December 2-1 home win over Norwich, where the Saints went up 2-0 before halftime and held on for a win in the reverse fixture.

Southampton’s biggest edge in this match comes in the ability to penetrate into the opponent’s six-yard box, where striker Danny Ings has proven efficient this season.

Ings has 15 goals to lead the Saints, who have created 14.56 xG from this area. Norwich, on the other hand, have scored two goals from inside the six-yard box, and conceded 16.31 xGA.

The Saints could’ve turned away from Hasenhüttl and his pressing tactics, but instead they rank third in passes allowed per defensive action to only Leicester and Manchester City. They doubled down and the results have paid off.

Against a Norwich team which ranks fourth-highest in allowing opponents to complete passes within 20 yards of goal, I’m expecting Southampton to control large portions of this match. There are concerns about Southampton’s minor hiccup before the break, losing four of five in the PL.

Before the Premier League’s 100-day break due to COVID-19, Manchester United and Tottenham were headed in opposite directions. Playing without Harry Kane and Heung-min Son in attack, Spurs were winless in five matches, losing twice to RB Leipzig in Europe and losing to both Chelsea and Wolves.

Meanwhile, United had won three of four, including wins over Chelsea and Manchester City.

United’s strength is undeniably on the defensive side, where newcomers Harry Maguire and Aaron Wan-Bissaka have propelled its defense to just 30 goals allowed on 29.4 expected goals against this year.

United is the frontrunner to nab fifth place and a potential Champions League spot if Manchester City lose their appeal and are banned from the competition next year.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

But the break provides a certain benefit to Tottenham, who will have Kane, Son, and midfielders Moussa Sissoko and Tanguy Ndombele available when the Red Devils visit an empty Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Friday.

While Spurs midfielder Dele Alli is suspended, and Giovani Lo Celso and United star Paul Pogba are both unlikely to play a full 90 minutes, both teams are near full strength for a clash that will go a long way toward deciding Champions and Europa League places for next year.

Spurs are a long way from their disastrous start to the season which led to the sacking of manager Mauricio Pochettino. They turned to Jose Mourinho, and since he’s taken over, have taken 27 points from 17 matches, good enough for fifth place in the Premier League in that time period.

But a look under the hood reveals the structural problems that have quietly developed at Spurs for the last two seasons. Spurs have a negative xG difference on the season, allowing 0.15 more xG than they create across the season. Part of that is the performance decline of Kane, part Spurs midfield falling apart.

Tottenham turned from a pressing monster from 2016-18 into a team severely lacking both defensively and in the midfield. They haven’t been able to press opponents or break through opponents’ presses and it’s why they have tumbled down the table in dribble success rate, passes allowed per defensive action and possession rate.

Mourinho has set up Spurs to be a more direct, counter-attacking team, which is also where United is at its best. Both teams have struggled against the lower-end of the table, where they are required to break down opponents sitting in low blocks. United’s best performances of the year have actually come against the league’s top teams (Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City).

What does that all mean for this matchup? It’s best to look at the previous one. In the last meeting, United won 2-1 at Old Trafford after Marcus Rashford grabbed a brace on a second-half penalty.

Overall, neither team created a ton of chances as the total xG for the game was 1.2-0.5 in favor of United. I’m anticipating a slow start to this match, where both teams struggle to gain a foothold and will be looking to break out and counter.

Like both first halves of the PL games on Wednesday, rust is to be expected.

But as the game progresses, United are much sturdier defensively, as Spurs’ defensive woes haven’t improved much since hiring Mourinho. The addition of Bruno Fernandes for United in attack and the potential addition of Pogba should overwhelm Spurs’ defensively and create enough to find a second-half winner.

Southhampton +136
Norwich/Southhampton DRAW +118 1H
Mallroca/Leganes DRAW +204

Man Utd have seen Under 2.5 Goals in 11 of 14 away Premier League games this season, as well as 6 of their 9 meetings with fellow Big Six sides.

Spurs have seen Unders land in all 3 home meetings with the Big Six under Jose Mourinho.

Southhampton +136 W
Norwich/Southhampton DRAW +118 1H W
Mallroca/Leganes DRAW +204 W

Two of Germany’s most exciting teams will do battle on Saturday morning as Dortmund heads to the Red Bull Arena to take on RB Leipzig. Both teams will look to make amends for poor performances during the week.

RB Leipzig blew a two-goal lead at home to draw with Fortuna Dusseldorf, while Dortmund were stunned at Signal Iduna Park by bottom-feeder Mainz.

RB Leipzig will have much more at stake on Saturday as a loss could potentially put their Champions League berth in jeopardy.

Dortmund on the other hand, have secured a Champions League spot for next season, so there’s not much for BVB to gain with a win at Leipzig.

RB Leipzig
RB Leipzig has struggled at the Red Bull Arena since the Bundesliga returned to play. Die Roten Bull have tied all four matches at home and their +1.21 xG differential leaves a lot to be desired, especially since all of their opponents were ranked outside of the top seven.

It’s been a particular run of form as Leipzig were one the best home teams in the Bundesliga before the break, averaging 2.1 xG per match while only conceding an average of 1.10 expected goals.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

One thing to note is that Leipzig confirmed the reports that their best player, Timo Werner, will transfer to Chelsea at the end of the season. Werner is expected to remain with Die Roten Bullen until the end of the Bundesliga season and until we hear otherwise, I’d count Werner in for this match since Leipzig really need a result

Even if Werner doesn’t play I think RB Leipzig have enough firepower to get by an overrated Dortmund squad.

Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund are the most overrated team in Germany and they are starting to regress. For the year, Dortmund’s expected goals record is significantly lower than their actual results:

Actual Goal Differential: +45
Expected Goal Differential: +23.88
Over their last 3 matches, Die Borussen has only generated 1.18 xG per game, which is a significant downturn from their season average of 1.91 xG.

With seemingly nothing to play for, it will be interesting to see how Lucien Favre selects his team. I would assume he would go with a strong starting XI, but I could see Favre giving some of his younger players players some experience.

Arsenal at Brighton

10 a.m. ET, NBCSN

There should be an influx of new soccer bettors in the market for Saturday’s matches, and I wonder how many of them will be immediately drawn to a big-ticket club like Arsenal at +135 against a better-than-they-look Brighton side.

Arsenal looked to be in shambles on Wednesday. David Luiz’s catastrophic 25-minute cameo got the headlines, but Man City was well on their way to picking apart the Gunners before Luiz went batty. Prior to Luiz’s sending off, City had generated 0.95 expected goals while Arsenal had created just 0.12.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Man City made Arsenal look like a mediocre team, which makes sense because, well, Arsenal are a mediocre team. In fact, their ninth-place standing in the table actually overrates the Gunners in 2019-20. According to their expected goal differential, Arsenal are the 14th-best team in the Premier League.

Brighton, meanwhile, have a better xG differential than their opponents and are unlucky to be in 15th place this season. In fact, looking purely at expected goals, Graham Potter’s Seagulls have been the better overall team this season, as their xG differential sits at -5.59 while Arsenal’s checks in at -6.26.

I’m not going to get into the rest vs. rust debate; who knows if the advantage is with Arsenal, who lost to Man City on Wednesday, or with Brighton in their first match of Project Restart. It’s an unprecedented situation, and nobody can say one way or another which side benefits from the quirky schedule.

I’m expecting the public to be all over Arsenal in this match, but I’m happy to take +200 odds on a Brighton team that is better than their place in the table indicates.

Form Prior To The Break
Both these sides would’ve welcomed the enforced break a few months back, with the hosts having won just the solitary match in seven, while third placed Leicester had hit a slight dip in form, going just W2-D2-L4, with their only victories coming against bottom six outfits West Ham and Aston Villa.

In all fairness to the Foxes, they can be mitigated for three of those winless matches coming up against top six sides Man City, Wolves and Chelsea, though defeats to Burnley, Southampton and Norwich would have left a bitter taste in their fans’ mouths, and casts a shadow of doubt over their chances for this one.

The Hornets are in the heat of a relegation scrap, though having been rock bottom for the majority of the season so far, they’ll be encouraged that they are very much emerging out of that bracket.

Their highlight of the season so far came in the penultimate game before the break where they downed Champions elect Liverpool 3-0, thanks to the return of the vivacious Ismaila Sarr.

The Senegalese has been by far their most influential player this season, with the Hornets picking up 1.38 points per game with him in the starting lineup, which drops a whopping 73% when he’s absent, and could be a real threat to a Foxes side who will be without star full-back Ricardo Pereira for this one, which Nigel Pearson might look to exploit.

While the outcome of this is extremely difficult to call, as it’s unclear how the lay off would have impacted both sides, there’s a serious case to be made for the hosts.

They’ve gone W5-D3-L5 under Pearson so far, which goes to a mightily impressive W4-D1-L1 at Vicarage Road, which has included wins over Liverpool, Man Utd and Wolves by an aggregate scoreline of 7-1, and at a the longer price it may be worth getting behind the underdogs to get up and running here with a win.

Matches at Vicarage road don’t tend to be goal shy, with 64% of matches here this season seeing at least three goals, while with top six sides visiting that sees a dramatic increase.

18 of the last 22 matches here since the beginning of 2016/17 against top six sides have seen a minimum of three goals, though we’d be hesitant in backing that outcome again especially at a heavy odds-on price.

Brighton vs Arsenal | Saturday 20th June 2020, 10:00

Arsenal were comfortably beating midweek at the Etihad, partially down to David Luiz’s ineptitude and decision making at the back. But looking at that game, it was a fair scoreline with City racking up 20 shots to the Gunners' three. It’s a swift turnover again for Mikel Arteta and another away game as they travel to Sussex to take on a Brighton side firmly entrenched in a relegation dog-fight.

The Seagulls have acclaimed many plaudits this season for their emphasis on possession-based football, pundits in some quarters have labelled it attractive and exciting. Hmm, not really for me… I actually think Brighton have been a pretty boring team to watch but I do think on the whole their performances have merited a greater points total than they have already accrued.

Graham Potter has had some job on his hands turning this Brighton side from a solid defensive, happy to concede possession team, into one they are willing to play out from the back and be patient on the ball. If they do stay up this season I expect them to do much better next.

Interestingly, and to many people's surprise, Brighton rank above Arsenal on the underlying performance data. Albion have been profligate in front of goal but should they bring their shooting boots I think they can score at least once against what will be a patched up Gunners backline.

Luiz of course is suspended, the man he came on for, Pablo Mari is now injured. Granit Xhaka went off early too and is out, Callum Chambers and Sokratis are both unlikely to feature too.

‘You cannot get with the away side here'
Brighton, on the other hand, have a fully fit squad to choose from and will be fresher without playing midweek. Chasing the ball for 90 minutes, and a lot of it with 10 men, could well take it’s toll on Arsenal and I think this is more of an issue at the start of a season or restart as your body isn’t used to the quick turnaround. Throw in the annoyances of travel under current circumstances and you cannot get with the away side here.

Arsenal are still in single figures for wins this season which is a shambolic effort for a club of their ilk. They fail to see games out and can’t rely on a defence that has an Expected Goals (xG) conceded figure of 1.50 per-game. The North Londoners also concede 15 shots per-game – only four teams allow more, further showing their open nature at the back. That brings me onto a few angles of interest.

The betting angles
Firstly, I’ll happily take the 41/50 (Bet365) on the Seagulls with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap. This would see us profit should the hosts avoid defeat with a full stakes win if they claim three points and a half stakes win should it end all square.

The Gunners have won just two away games this season, a sorry record, but they do draw quite a few so I’d rather take out some insurance and the shorter price than take the straight home win as the X also looks a runner.

Watford v Leicester | Saturday 14th June 2020, 7:30

Watford take Leicester at Vicarage Road in what is the first Saturday lunchtime match since before the lockdown. The term ‘always avoid the early kick-off’ springs to mind but I think there are some great opportunities in this one.

Lockdown came at the wrong time for everyone but you could argue more so for Watford. The Hornets’ last home game saw them make headlines as they, not only ended Liverpool’s invincible effort, but did so in some style, coming out 3-0 winners. It was a result Watford desperately needed as they continue to battle against the dreaded drop.

The Hornets home games are going to be vital as they appear to be much stronger on their own turf as opposed to on their travels – they’ve won just two games away all season and lost on the road against Crystal Palace immediately after that astounding home victory to the champions-elect.

Leicester, not for the first time, have been one of the surprise packages this season and sit fairly comfortably in third and look set to feature in the Champions League next season.

Brendan Rodgers has implemented a style of play that sees them control games and utilise their possession football. It’s largely due to this that they occupy third with a similar goal difference to that of Manchester City.

It’d be easy to say that Leicester have scored the second most goals away this season and should be too good for Watford but 32% of their away goals came in a single match, beating Southampton 9-0 back in October.

Key Stats
Watford:

Commit on average 12.6 fouls per game when playing at home (the most in the league).
Receive on average 9.1 fouls per game when playing at home.
When playing teams from the top half at home they have seen 2+ cards in 5/8 games.
In home games against the top 6 they have seen 2+ cards in 3/4 games.
When playing teams in the top half at home the opposition has seen 2+ cards in 5/8 games.
When playing at home against teams in the top 6 the opposition has seen 2+ cards in 1/4 games.
Their XG for when at home is 23.80 however they have only scored 16.
Their XG against at home is 19.68 and they have only conceded 17.
Their most recent home game saw them end league leaders Liverpool’s unbeaten record with a resounding 3-0 victory.
In their home games against teams in the top 6 there has been over 2.5 goals on 3/4 occasions.
Have the second worst disciplinary record at home in the league.
Leicester:

Commit on average 11 fouls per game when playing away.
Receive on average 11.6 fouls per game when playing away.
When playing teams in the bottom away from home they have seen 2+ cards in 3/7 games.
When playing teams in the bottom half away from home the opposition has seen 2+ cards in 5/7 games.
Their XG for when playing away is 25.47 (the third highest) and they have scored 28.
Their XG against when playing away is 18.05 yet they have only conceded 13.
They have scored 2+ goals away to the bottom half in 6/7 games.

Brighton return from the break with their Premier League lives on the line. They sit 15th, but are only two points clear of the relegation zone. They cannot afford to take time to get back in a rhythm. If they don’t come out strong, their stay in the Premier League could end.

Arsenal restarted with an embarrassing 3-0 loss to Manchester City on Wednesday. They sit in ninth, five points back of fifth, the potential last Champions League place. That final Champions League place is the only thing the Gunners have to play for. If they fall out of contention for it, their season may as well not finish.

TEAM NEWS
Brighton’s only injury issue is Jose Izquierdo’s knee problem. He is expected to miss out, according to PremierInjuries.com.

Arsenal are expected to have a few absentees. Calum Chambers missed out against Manchester City with a long term injury, while Granit Xhaka and Pablo Mari picked up injuries and are doubts for Saturday, according to PremierInjuries.com. David Luiz is suspended after his red card.

KEY PLAYERS

Brighton: Neal Maupay

Maupay is the only Brighton player with more than three Premier League goals this season. His eight more than double anyone else on the team, so his ability to get going is crucial to Brighton’s survival. Arsenal’s defenders are quite error-prone, so this could be a huge match for Maupay.

Arsenal: Nicolas Pepe

Arsenal really struggled to progress the ball against Manchester City. Pepe’s dribbling ability is one of the Gunners best way to do that. Mikel Arteta choosing to start him could be a big factor in Arsenal’s ability to get the three points they are desperate for.

PREDICTION
Brighton will look to take advantage of the tired legs of Arsenal and the Gunners atrocious away record. The Seagulls have a real chance at a win here.

Prediction: 2-1 Brighton

Wolverhampton at West Ham

12:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN

The Wolverhampton Wanderers head to bottom-feeder West Ham in a game that has huge implications at both ends of the table. West Ham is currently deep in a relegation battle, sitting only two points above Bournemouth for the last relegation spot. On the other side of the table, Wolves currently sit in seventh place, just two points behind Manchester United for fifth and a spot in the Europa League.

The Hammers deserve to be on the verge of relegation based on expected points (27 actual vs. 25.19 xPoints). The main issue for the Hammers this season has been defense. West Ham allow a whopping 2.05 expected goals per game, second-most in the Premier League. Things don’t get much better at home either, as they are conceding 1.82 xG per game and have a -5.61 expected goal differential.

West Ham put a lot of focus on offense this transfer window, bringing in Sebastien Haller (via Frankfurt), Pablo Fornals (via Villarreal) and Jarrod Bowen (via Hull City in January) for a combined $98,230,000. However, spending that amount of cash hasn’t translated to much offensive firepower: The Hammers manage only 1.24 xG per game (15th in the Premier League). The big-money transfers will have to show some improvement if West Ham are going to survive relegation.

After a seventh-place finish last year, Wolves find themselves in the exact same position this season. Over the past two seasons, Wolves have been a surprise to many, but this team is absolutely for real. Wolves are top-five in the Premier League in expected points, expected goal differential and expected goals allowed. In fact, Wolves were one of the hottest teams in the Premier League before the break, based on expected goals.

In their last eight matches, they have scored 2.06 xG per game, while conceding only 0.94 expected goals per game. Within those eight games, Wolves won the expected goals battle in matches with Manchester United, Tottenham and Liverpool, showing they can hang with the big boys

Wolves thoroughly dominated the reverse fixture 2-0 back in December. It was a dominate performance defensively, as Wolves limited West Ham to just six shots and 0.60 expected goals and deserved the 2-0 win based on the expected goals report.

You cannot fail to be impressed with Nuno Espirito Santo after getting Wolves into the Europa League following promotion from the Championship.

Meanwhile, his side have backed that performance up with another excellent season flying high in the European places yet again, as well as currently playing out a last-16 clash against Olympiakos.

The same can’t be said for West Ham as they’re currently enduring one of their worst seasons since being promoted back to Premier League for the 2012/13 campaign.

Indeed, David Moyes looked to have brought a much-needed energy to camp back in December following the sacking of Manuel Pellegrini, but after a 4-0 win in his first game they soon tailed off to lose six of their subsequent nine outings.

However, each of those defeats came against top-half sides as they’ve gone W2-D2-L0 against teams outside that bracket under new management.

Furthermore, only Jurgen Klopp’s charges have been able to topple them in the league at the London Stadium from five such matches with Moyes in charge, as they beat both Bournemouth and Southampton, so they should at least put up some resistance.

West Ham To Win The First Half
Unfortunately for the home fans, Wolves are one of the teams higher up the table, not to mention the fact that only Liverpool have lost fewer outings than them this term.

What’s more, a break in the season has to play into the visitors’ hands with the demands of playing in both Europe and domestically appearing to have tired their out their thin squad, but we are slightly worried by some of the first-half performances they’ve put on display.

Indeed, only once from their last 14 have they been ahead at the break, as well as just one of 14 trips this term, whilst they’ve lost five of their last six winless first halves on the road.

By contrast, the Hammers have won the opening 45 minutes on home turf in seven of their 11 matches when excluding the runaway top three, doing so against the likes of Man Utd, Sheffield Utd and Arsenal.

Four those first-half victories came by an exact 1-0 scoreline, while that has been the case in nine of Wolves’ last 11 opening half defeats.

The potential absence of Angelo Ogbonna is a slight worry for the hosts with the Italian proving his worth at the back this term.

They’ve conceded more than an extra goal per game on average in his absence this term, an increase of 86.7% as they lost four of five winless matches.

With that in mind, we’ll have a bet at a huge price for this game to be flipped on its head after the first 45 and the visitors to take the honours for the fourth time in a row.

West Ham vs Wolves | Saturday 20th June 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports
It is fair to say that I am regretting not backing a short-price ‘away’ side after Southampton’s dismantling of Norwich, but I am going to take a similar approach when Wolves visit West Ham on Saturday night.

Clearly Wolves are a better side than the Hammers, given that they are currently 16 points ahead of the East London outfit, but I do see a fair amount of ability in David Moyes’s men. While they are clearly suspect defensively – as 50 goals conceded in 29 games this season testifies – they do have plenty of talented attacking players.

Through a combination of injury and poor form, the output from the likes of Sebastien Haller, Manuel Lanzini and Felipe Anderson may not have been to the levels that West Ham fans would expect but given they have been an inconsistent side for the majority of my lifetime, I am loathe to back their opponents at close to Evens.

Mainz v Werder Bremen | Saturday 20th June 2020, 9:30

Mainz host Werder Bremen in the biggest game of the Bundesliga weekend in terms of the stakes. If Mainz manages a draw or better they are almost guaranteeing themselves safety. However, should Bremen repeat their performance last weekend against Paderborn, they will place themselves just three points behind their opponents.

With both sides finding the back of the net in recent weeks, an attacking mindset may be the best form of the defence. Mainz have been outstanding in their last two as they picked up valuable wins against Frankfurt and Dortmund. Two 2-0 victories have put themselves in a position of minor comfort and they will be heading into this clash with full confidence.

Similar to Mainz, Werder Bremen have managed to find some form in the last few matches of the season. It may be too little too late, but Bremen's 5-1 win against Paderborn had the look of a side who felt like the shackles had been freed. A solid performance against Bayern resulted in a 1-0 loss but there were plenty of positives in this performance.

The last five matches between the two teams have resulted in 19 goals. Their meetings earlier in the season ended in a conclusive 5-0 away win for Mainz. This would be something that Werder will be feeling aggrieved about, and there would be no sweeter revenge than all three points and dragging their opponents into a final day scrap.

Both sides almost concede two goals per-game, with Mainz concerning 63 goals and Bremen conceding 65. When stakes are high, both the defences on display will be feeling the pressure, especially when both sides have quality going forward.

Quaison, Boetius, Mateta and Onisiwo provide an attacking threat for Mainz, while Rashica, Klaassen and Osako are all players who should have provided more for Bremen this season.

Bremen head into the match knowing that they have won eight of their 13 Bundesliga away games against Mainz, a better record than any other team they have faced more than 10 times away. Mainz have only a worse record against Bayern and Dortmund at home than against their guests on Saturday. Twemty-two of Bremen's 29 points have been collected away which is a staggering 79% of their points total.

No side in Bundesliga history who have picked up as many points as Bremen have away and finished lower than 14th. This shows just how poor Bremen have been on home soil this season. Bremen are not a bad team away from home and they should look to show this confidence in their biggest game of the season.

Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt | Saturday 20th June 2020,

Frankfurt are in hot form. With four wins in their last six, they have found consistency at last and placed themselves in a position to be able to have an outside shot at European football.

Daichi Kamada has been playing football of the highest quality and tearing teams to pieces. This is to the benefit of Andre Silva, who keeps receiving gold scoring opportunities on a silver platter from the Japanese star. Seven goals in his last nine matches and three goals in his last two have been a key reason behind Frankfurt's huge improvement in recent weeks.

When the Bundesliga restarted, many people, including myself, felt that Koln had a good chance of qualifying for Europe. However, reality has hit the Billy Goats as they failed to win any of their seven games since the restart, only picking up a miserable three points. They have put in miserable performances along the way against teams such as Mainz and Dusseldorf which highlights just how poor Saturday's hosts have been.

Conceding 17 goals in those games, including conceded two or more goals on six occasions out of a possible seven sums up the miserable post-COVID-19 form Koln have been enduring. With no wins in nine matches, the last thing Koln need is to face one of the form teams in the division who still have something to play for.

Frankfurt have dragged themselves out of a relegation battle and in typical competitive Bundesliga fashion, have given themselves a slim chance of European qualification. Adi Hutter’s visitors have won each of their last three away league games at Wolfsburg, Werder Bremen and Hertha Berlin too, and are up to ninth in the standings.

Only one loss in Frankfurt’s last six (against an unstoppable Bayern) have shown that they still have what was living within them during their sensation 2018/19 season.

Frankfurt are the highest scorers outside the top five with 55 goals in 32 games, so they should be going for the jugular against a pretty poor Koln side. An away win looks to be on the menu, all things considered