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GL

Belmont Park
Race 1
Time: 11:45 a.m. ET

I’m typically stuck waiting in the security line, discreetly sneaking in alcohol while simultaneously trying to fire my early Pick 5 into a mobile app on Belmont Stakes day; which gives me an excellent excuse to skip this maiden race (meaning, for horses who have never won before) now that I’m stuck watching at home.

If you do insist on playing the race, however, note that Chad Brown debuts two runners on the turf with his coupled entry, and you need to use the No. 1 Conglomerate / No. 1A Traffic Pattern (7-2) in multi-race wagers; Brown wins at a 25% rate with first-time turf runners.

I would also include the No. 8 Scanno (3-1), No. 9 Striking Speed (6-1) for trainer Linda Rice – who wins at a 26% rate in her second start with maidens, and the No. 10 Souper Energizer (8-1) for trainer Michael Trombetta (18% win rate in maiden claimers) on early multi-race tickets.

Race 2 (Woody Stephens Stakes – G1)
Time: 12:25 p.m. ET

It’s sporadic to find a Grade 1 stakes race so early in the day, and although this is a small field with five horses, it is an extremely competitive race – and I could see any of the five horses winning.

My preferred options are the No. 3 Mischievous Alex (5-2) and No. 4 Echo Town (9-5), but the No. 5 Shoplifted (8-1) should get a fast pace to allow him to come running late on the cutback in distance.

Echo Town and the No. 1 No Parole (3-1) should engage in an early pace duel, with Mishievious Alex and the No. 2 Meru (5-2) not too far behind, so if the race falls apart, this could set up correctly for Shoplifted to come running late.

Race 3
Time: 1:02 p.m. ET

I inform the group that I might have a couple of winners, and a chalky Daily Double to play for the next two races, starting with the No. 6 Indian Pride (1-1) who makes her first start since September for Chad Brown; winning at a 29% clip off of long layoffs.

The No. 7 Mrs. Danvers (9-5) is also a significant threat but is coming off of a more extended layoff, and trainer Shug McGaughey has less success (14% win rate) than Brown after long breaks – so the horse may need the race.

Brown’s other runner, the No. 1 Palomita (5-1) makes her third start of the year, and first since March, but I’m more inclined to use the No. 5 Forever Changed (8-1) as a backup option with the 7; trainer Charlton Baker wins 20% of the time at the allowance level and has a 26% success rate after long layoffs.

Race 4 (Penning Ridge Stakes – G2)
Time: 1:42 p.m. ET

To complete our chalky daily double, I like the No. 1 Decorated Invader (6-5) in this one-mile, Grade-2 turf race, after running an 88 Beyer speed figure in his first start of the season on March 28.

The No. 2 Venezuelan Hug (6-1) has been working well for trainer Danny Gargan, and the No. 3 Proven Strategies (3-1) owns the highest last-out speed figure (89) in the field, and I would consider using both horses as “B” options – but in a Daily Double, I would single both favorites in Races 3 and 4.

Race 5
Time: 2:19 p.m. ET

Race 5 is my least favorite of the day, which means that I’ll head out to the backyard at Belmont, light up my cigar, grab some snacks from a food truck, and take one long, last look over my Middle Pick 5 and Middle Pick 4 wagers; beginning in Race 6.

To close out early multi-race tickets, I would look to spread in this seven-furlong maiden race, primarily using the No 1 Mutakaamil (4-1) for Chad Brown (27% win rate in maiden special weights); No. 8 Happy Saver (3-1) for Todd Pletcher (22% win rate), and No. 7 Rare Stripe (2-1) for Jack Sisterson (18%) after a bullet workout (1st of 97 horses) on June 13.

But I would be remiss to leave off the No. 5 The Angry Man (8-1) and No. 6 Shadow Boat (8-1), for relatively high-percentage maiden trainers, and I will not let the No. 2 O’Trouble (7-2) beat me everywhere if I’m already spreading somewhere.

Race 6 (Wonder Again Stakes – G3)
Time: 3:01 p.m. ET

We now enter the central part of Saturday’s card, as Race 6 begins the Mandatory payout $0.50 Pick 5, which concludes with the Belmont Stakes in Race 10.

The No. 2 Sweet Melania (7-5), a daughter of American Pharoah, is a deserving favorite and could beat this field easily from a tactical spot behind what looks like a minimal pace. While you certainly have to include her, I’ll use one alternative.

The No. 5 Selflessly (5-2) for Chad Brown would be the other obvious choice – in her first start back after winning a Grade-2 race as a maiden last September. To reiterate, Brown wins at a 29% rate when he brings horses back after a long layoff – the same rate as Pletcher – but he also has a 25% win rate in graded stakes races, compared to 9% (15-for-167) for Pletcher.

The No. 1 Speaktomeofsummer (8-1), No. 3 Highland Glory (2-1) could come running late, but I’m not sure if they will get the right setup. And the No. 4 Antoinette (6-1) is moving from dirt to turf, a move which has only worked 10% of the time (six for 63) for Bill Mott’s barn.

Race 7
Time: 3:39 p.m. ET

This seven-furlong allowance race on the turf is my second least-favorite race on the card, but since it is part of the primary multi-race sequences, we should look to spread, move on, and narrow down our tickets in the stakes races.

I’m going to consider using the following horses: the No. 3 Single Verse (8-1), No. 4 Strongerthanuknow (5-1), No. 5 Winfred J (6-1), No. 6 Noble Jewel (8-1), No. 8 My Sassy Sarah (5-2), No. 10 Light in the Sky (12-1), No. 11 Canaraise Angel (12-1), and No. 12 Speightstown Gal (8-1).

The 4, 5, 6, 8, and 12 horses would be my “A” selections if I had to narrow this leg down to five runners, with the 3, 10 and 11 as “B” options, but I would have a difficult time cutting beyond that group.

Race 8 (Acorn Stakes – G1)
Time: 4:15 p.m. ET

Race 8 begins the late Pick 5 sequence, which includes the two races following the Belmont Stakes.

The No. 1 Gamine (1-1) figures to be one of the more heavily bet favorites of the day, as the current favorite for the 2020 Kentucky Oaks, but Bob Baffert’s barn has struggled with shipping horses to Belmont this meet, and she was nearly run down in the stretch; winning by just a neck at Oaklawn Park in her last start.

The No. 4 Casual (3-1), the only other horse in the field who has run a 90 Beyer speed figure, is my top selection. She has to extend out an extra furlong to one mile, while Gamine is cutting back from a mile and 1/16, which makes this an exciting match race.

However, the No. 2 Lucrezia (9-2) is another one to consider, after running a bullet work (1st of 40 runners) on June 13, and the No. 7 Perfect Alibi (5-1) should improve in her three-year-old season after winning multiple graded stakes as a two-year-old. Still, she needs to take a significant step up in speed figures (career-best 74) in her first start of the year.

Race 9 (Jaipur Stakes – G1)
Time: 4:53 p.m. ET

Race 9 begins the late Pick 4 sequence, which includes the two races following the Belmont Stakes.

This six-furlong sprint on the inner-turf course features a competitive field of eight, and I would look to cut the group in half or even go up to five deep in multi-race wagering, using the No. 2 Oleksandra (7-2), No. 3 Texas Wedge (4-1) No. 4 Pure Sensation (5-2), No. 5 Stubbins (3-1), and No. 6 Hidden Scroll (8-1) on my tickets; but the 3 would be my final cut.

Race 10:The Belmont Stakes
Time: 5:42 p.m. ET

This Belmont Stakes is undoubtedly different than all the ones that have come before it – going off as the first race of the Triple Crown, at a shorter distance and with a one-turn configuration.

Ultimately, I’m not entirely trying against No. 8 Tiz The Law (6-5), a potential superstar. Still, I wasn’t overly impressed by his Florida Derby either, and think that he is much more vulnerable than a likely odds on favorite.

I’m certainly rooting for the New York-bred – who is is looking to become the first local horse to win the Belmont Stakes since Forrester did it back in 1882, but I think the most likely upset candidates are the No. 1 Tap It To win (6-1) who ran a 97 Beyer speed at Belmont 16 days ago, and could get loose on the lead – and the No. 9 Dr. Post (5-1) who has a 96-speed figure from his maiden score at Gulfstream Park in March, but only followed that up with an 86 in stakes win one month later.

Either or both of the late-running No. 2 Sole Volante (9-2) and the No. 10 Pneumatic (8-1), who has a stablemate rabbit in the No. 7 Jungle Runner (50-1) also entered in this field, could undoubtedly hit the board. Still, I don’t see enough pace in the race to allow either one to blow past the entire field.

I do plan to use Pneumatic and the No. 4 Modernist (15-1) in the second spot on my exacta and trifecta tickets, but Tap It To Win – who can use the long backstretch and one-turn configuration like a slingshot – is my lone “B” option on multi-race tickets.

Race 11
Time: 6:17 p.m. ET

If you end up playing the late Pick 4 or Late Pick 5 sequence or want to use Tiz The Law as a single to begin a Daily Double or late Pick 3, I can give you some multi-race options to close out those tickets. At the same time, we will wait for the crowds to empty and board the earlier, more crowded, and significantly drunker trains to various destinations around Long Island, New York City, and New Jersey.

I would go up to four deep in Race 11 – a nine-furlong optional claimer on the turf, including the No 2 Breaking the Rules (6-1), No. 3 Largent (5-2), No. 5 Argonne (12-1), and Chad Brown’s No. 9 Digital Age (3-1) – who won me some big money on last year’s Kentucky Derby Day card.

Belmont Race No. 2 (12:25 p.m. ET/9:25 a.m. PT)

#1 No Parole (3/1 morning line). “In the Grade 1 Woody Stephens Stakes, we gave out No Parole last time going one turn and this is one turn going seven furlongs. This is what this horse wants to do and should go wire-to-wire with great jockey Luis Saez as the best bet on the Belmont card.”

#5 Shoplifted (8/1 morning line). “Turn back from route to sprint is the winning move highly accomplished trainer Steve Asmussen has ordered for this well-traveled, tested $800,000 3-year-old son of Into Mischief. With tons of speed on the inside, the outer-most No. 5 post fits him to a tee in the short field. Super jock Jose Ortiz picks up mount as previous rider Ricardo Santana opts for other Asmussen starter, #4 Echo Town (9/5).

Belmont Race No. 4 (1:42 p.m. ET/10:42 a.m. PT)
#5 Vanzzy (12/1). The top contenders in the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge Stakes are come-from-behind types in this mile turf race and I really feel Vanzzy can control the pace under jockey Kendrick Carmouche and have enough left to hold off the closers down the stretch. None of these other 3-year-olds are world-beaters anyway.

Churchill Race No. 6 (3:25 p.m. ET/12:25 p.m. PT)

#4 Pixelate (7/2 morning line). “Look for hard-charging, 3-year-old son of City Zip to improve off his last driving effort in his second race back from short freshening – and be flying home in the stretch. Win-hungry, savvy conditioner Michael Stidham (16-0-4-3 at meet) entices trusted jockey Mitch Murrill to return as he asks colt, who has never finished out of the money in eight starts, to go a mile & an eighth in minor turf stakes.

Belmont Race No. 9 (4:53 p.m. ET/1:53 p.m. PT)
#1 Kanthaka (10/1). In the Grade 1 Jaipur, I’m in agreement with Colucci on #1 Kanthaka and glad he used in the Late Pick 4. Kanthaka moved to the Graham Motion barn last year and has been gelded since his last start. That often improves a horse’s performance and he should be able to sit off the pace as there’s plenty of speed in this six-furlong turf sprint and get up late under hot jockey Jose Ortiz.

R4 - 1 Decorated Invader looks like a short-priced winner at 6-5 on the ML. Between Proven Strategies and Vanzzy , there appears to be enough pace to set up her closing kick.